Monday November 1st Matchup Breakdowns and October Review:

Ottawa vs Tampa Bay:

We have two teams here who are in two different positions. Before the season, I discussed how I believe the Lightning will become a middle of the pact team this year due to the toll of three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals. To date, the Lightning are exactly that. Currently sitting fourth in the division, an OTL behind the Panthers, the Lightning are dead even in goals for and goals against. The bright spot for the Lightning is Steven Stamkos who is top three in the league in goals, also averaging over four shots per game. The losses the Lightning have endured roster wise over the past two years are showing as they’re not the dominant offensively powered defensively stable team they’ve been the past few years. Andrei Vasilevskiy’s numbers are up quite a bit this year but he’s still as reliable as the top goaltender in the league. Outside of the Lightning’s top five (Kucherov, Stamkos, Point, Hedman, Sergachev), the team is lacking depth. The Lightning are winning games against their inferior opponents (Columbus, Florida, Islanders, Anaheim, San Jose) but have struggles against teams who have been coming in playing well (Rangers opening night, Pitt, Philly, Los Angeles). The Lightning’s schedule for the month of November is going to be exhausting playing just about every other day for the first three weeks with the only benefit being nine on eleven of those games at home. I expect them to continue to be a .500 team throughout this month with one of the tougher schedules coming up. Their first matchup is tonight at home against Ottawa. 

Ottawa comes in dead last in the division but are still 4-4. One thing I mentioned before the season started was how the balance in the Atlantic has shifted and how this will become arguably the toughest division in the league and we’re seeing it. There are two teams in the Atlantic who are sub .500 teams right now and they are the Wings (4-3-2) and the Leafs (4-4-2). Ottawa has yet to win on the road (0-3) and tonight most likely won’t translate into their first. Coming it at a +3 on the season with 30 goals scored and 27 goals against, 12 of those goals against are on the road. At home, outside of their 7-5 win against Boston, the Sens haven’t given up more than two goals in four of five. After a slow first two games to start this season, the Sens won four straight before losing to Minnesota and Florida late last week. November will start off tough for them seeing Tampa and Vegas today and Thursday, but after that, the Sens has a very big opportunity to climb the standings with very favorable matchups within the Atlantic and Metro division before heading out West to end the month. The Sens are one team I don’t expect to still be in the same position they’re in when November ends so as long as the offense keeps clicking at home, they are a team we should make some considerable money on from a gambling perspective this month.

Flyers vs Rangers:

The Tortorella effect is real and it has the Flyers playing good hockey. Philly is one of the surprising, if not most surprising team to start the season winning four of their first five and coming in 5-2-1. Carter Hart has been absolutely phenomenal going 5-0-1 with a 2.31 GAA in which his only loss was an OT loss to the Carolina Hurricanes, who I believe are the best team in the league. That is a loss you write off for Hart and this team with where they expected to be in the preseason. The Flyers have not quit coming back from four two goal deficits, and six total deficits. Tortorella has this team believing in themselves but I believe it will only be a matter of time before that drive wears off and the Flyers lose a few in a row sending them back down to the basement dwelling team they were expected to be. They face the Rangers tonight in what should be a get right game for the Rags. The Rangers sit third in the Metro right now because they have the most games played, meaning based on winning percentage, they’re bottom three in the division. Listen, if anyone is telling you that Igor Shesterkin is the best goalie in the league, they’re wrong. If anyone is telling you that Igor is better than Andrei Vasilevskiy, they’re wrong. If anyone is telling you the Rangers are the best team in the Metro, they’re wrong. Everything about the Rangers has been wrong except for everything I’ve been telling you. I told you this team will be a lucky wild card team this year and they look like that. I told you Chris Kreider wouldn’t repeat his offensive surge last year, and he’s not. Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad are the two best players on this team. It’s that simple. Igor Shesterkin is not mentally ready to be the top goaltender in the league and he for sure is nowhere near that level when it comes to the playoffs and that is why I will continue to say that Ilya Sorokin is better than him. The Rangers are a good team, not great, but they’ll make the playoffs. This month should be more favorable for them with an easier and weaker upcoming schedule, but a trip out West in mid November could cause the same effects for them that it has for Pitt and Toronto so far. I expect the Rangers to win tonight with Igor getting the best of Carter Hart. New York is undoubtedly the better team in this matchup, they’re at home, and Igor’s numbers are significantly better against Philly than Hart’s numbers against the Rangers. Igor should not yield more than two goals tonight, but if he does and the Rangers lose, the Rangers are going to need to reassess a lot. I expect a game tonight in which the Rangers are able to control the offensive zone time. Carter Hart will give up 3+ goals but I don’t expect any of the goals to be weak. I expect the Rangers to significantly outplay Philly speed wise, leading to multiple power plays, and Carter Hart being left vulnerable. I see this as a 4-2, 4-3, 5-2 type win for the Rangers tonight. 

Vegas vs Washington:

I fucking hate this franchise and I will continue to hate them. The problem is they are playing well and it needs to be acknowledged. Currently sitting atop the Pacific division, the Knights are 8-2 on the year. We need to keep in mind right now that of those eight wins, they have beaten the Kings, Blackhawks, Kraken, Winnipeg twice, San Jose, Anaheim with their only valuable win coming against Toronto who are in their own world of pain right now. The two significant games the Knights have played against Colorado and Calgary are their two losses. Vegas is playing very well and Jack Eichel is healthy having a revitalized season with four goals and six assists to start the year. The big surprise is in net with Logan Thompson and Adin Hill going a combined 8-2 with respective 1.69 and 1.72 GAA meaning they aren’t needing much offensively to win posting a +15 goal differential with only 17 goals against. Vegas heads out on a five game road trip to the East coast that ends with a Jack Eichel return to a surging and equally revitalized Buffalo team. This should be a relatively easy road trip for Vegas these next ten days especially if Charlie Lindgren gets the start in Washington tonight. You will see me playing this Vegas team a bit more in the coming weeks as we need to ride their success before they eventually middle out like I expect. The hot start should keep them afloat through January but I definitely expect a regression in this teams performance around January when the wear and tear starts landing these oft injured Knights on the IR and their goaltending returns to mediocre form. Logan Thompson should still play well over the year but he will not be a leading candidate for the Vezina like he might be showing now. 

The Washington Capitals are dealing with nothing more than an unhealthy team right now. There won’t be too much to analyze here because the team we see now will not be the same team we see in a few months. T.J. Oshie is now added to the injury list where he joins Nick Backstrom, Carl Hagelin, and Tom Wilson. Tonight will be a game I expect Washington to lose if Charlie Lindgren starts. I expect it to be high scoring in Vegas favor and will jump on the Vegas side of it. Expect a .500 club out of Washington over these next few months while they get healthy. Expect a losing streak out of them in November where they rebound and pick it back up towards the end of the month into December and January. 

Montreal vs Minnesota:

Montreal is not the bad team that we are used to over the past few seasons. There is some outside hope for this team with Juraj Slafkovsky but what this means is that we will be able to nitpick when we play against Montreal and when we decide to play them in a mispriced matchup reminiscent of their -160 opening line against Arizona earlier this season. Tonight is a matchup in which they can catch Minnesota. As we’ve seen by Minnesota’s dreadful performance against Detroit on Saturday and their mediocre performance against Chicago before tying it and eventually winning in the shootout, Minnesota can get caught tonight. Minnesota is heading home off a five game road trip that saw them stall out a bit towards the end as mentioned. For a team who has scored three goals or more in every game this season except one (our ladder night against Detroit). For me, Minnesota tonight is just a layoff game. Their money line makes them unplayable straight and I don’t like the edge enough to parlay them or play their team total at 3.5. Defensively, the Wild are bottom three in the league in goals against, with Marc-Andre Fleury’s best and only good games coming against Montreal and Ottawa. I personally don’t do it, but my advice would be to get a little exposure to Montreal at +200 and look for the travel and road trip to trip Minnesota up here. 

Boston vs Pittsburgh:

Here we are with Boston being the best team in the league. While they are the best team in the league points wise, they are far from being the best team in the league long term. An 8-1 record is beyond impressive and it’s where I expected Carolina to be, however, looking at the Bruins schedule, Boston has had arguably the easiest schedule to start the season like Vegas. Boston’s strongest opponents this season have been Ottawa, Dallas, and Minnesota. If you want to include Washington in there you can but the way they outplayed a struggling and hurt Washington lineup deters me from including them in this list. Linus Ullmark has been leading the way as the Bruins top goaltender with Jeremy Swayman only starting in three of their first nine games as it should be. Boston is dealing with a hurt Davis Krejci and Charlie McAvoy but they should be fine in the meantime without them. I wrote in my pre-season divisional breakdown that I believe Boston will be the one team to push Toronto to win the Atlantic and so far they’ve proven why. The coaching change in Boston has done what I expected and Boston has been one of the favorable teams to bet on ML wise. Pittsburgh on the other hand has dealt us some untimely losses. After scoring six goals in four of their first five starts getting out to a 4-0-1 record, the Pengs now sit 4-4-1. Why? Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, and Seattle on a four game Canadian/West Coast road trip. I wouldn’t let these four losses deter you from thinking that the Penguins are still one of the top teams in the league. As I mentioned in chat, the reality is the Penguins are old, the second oldest team by average in the league at that. The Penguins will be a streaky team throughout the season and this coming week should see them produce a minimum of three, if not four wins. I expect Pitt to hand Boston their second loss tonight but I don’t find this to be a game with much betting value. Yes, I do like that the Penguins are only -120, so adding them into a parlay or playing them straight makes the losses very minimal with their ML being a nice parlay booster. Their team total surprisingly comes in at three with a game total of 6.5 which I don’t necessarily want to rely on a four goal performance to cash a -143 play against Linus Ullmark. This is a game that I’d much rather play the game total at 5.5 for 1-65 and enjoy two powerhouse Eastern Conference teams proving their strength tonight. 

New York Islanders vs Chicago:

It’s been nine games into the season and we’ve seen the jekyll and hyde Islanders so far. In the first six games the Isles scored a total of 7 goals in 4 games against Florida twice, Tampa, and the Devils, and 12 goals in 2 games against the Sharks and Ducks. Coming into the season I explained how the lack of offense is the Isles kryptonite right now. They’re a team built on using what limited scoring they have to get ahead and lock you down defensively. Starting out 2-4 made you think the Isles were in for another long season after I told you they would be a potential playoff team. These past three games for the Isles have shown otherwise. The Isles are a team of the week coming in with three consecutive wins against the Rangers, Hurricanes, and a huge 5-4 come from behind win over the Cup defending Avs after being down 3-0. These are three statement wins for a team that had struggled and now they head out West where their offense should continue to click. Chicago is one of the worst defensive teams in the Central division. This is a game the Islanders need to win and score often to maintain the momentum they’ve built this week and I anticipate they will. Chicago has been a lot better offensively than I projected to start the year but it hasn’t affected us in any way betting wise. Chicago should level out as the weeks go by and they will continue to be a team we target goals against. Their offensive abilities will only help add to any game over we play that includes them.

Seattle vs Calgary:

Who told you Seattle would be money makers this season? Who has been able to make money on the Seattle Kraken this year? We have. Who told you Calgary would still be a top team in the league this season? Who has been able to make money on the Flames this year? We have. Now combine those two together and we have the ingredients for glory tonight. Seattle comes in scoring as much as they are giving up exactly as predicted. This offense has been exciting to watch scoring 3 or more goals in every game but two. Calgary is starting Dan Vladar tonight who has played well in two starts this season but should allow Seattle to reach a minimum of two goals again tonight. On the flip side, we get Joey Daccord starting in net for Seattle against a high octane, elite, Calgary offense. Calgary may only have 24 goals on the season, but they’ve also played the least amount of games in the league. Tied in points, tonight’s matchup should provide a showing of why Calgary belongs at the top of the division and why Seattle has the fight in them to be a third or fourth place team. I am anticipating goals galore tonight especially from Calgary who should score between 4-7 goals tonight with Seattle contributing as well. Tonight’s game should be one of the most open games we have seen this season and I would compare it similar to last nights Detroit/Buffalo game with more scoring out of the Detroit side. Calgary’s two losses on th eseason hav come to Edmonton and Buffalo. With only one goal on the season so far, tonight is a spot I am expecting Jonathan Huberdeau to rebound and get back on track.