Quick NFL Draft Notes
I’ll get Ghost to make this into an article for the site but here are some quick notes on where I currently stand on some stuff with the draft 9 days away.
All Posted Plays: 2024 NFL Draft
2nd Overall Pick
This is where I STILL differ against the media and mass betting market. All of the notable mock drafters and insiders are saying Jayden Daniels will be 2nd overall. By the time I post this, I would say his line is going to be up to -300. NOTHING has changed over the last month. The Commanders aren’t talking and everyone is group thinking Jayden Daniels because they don’t know. When I say everyone, I mean people throughout the NFL that these media personnel are talking to. The consensus is that Jayden Daniels is the 2nd best QB when you poll scouts, coaches, front office personnel, and others. This does NOT mean that the Commanders are taking him. I will, however, say that they very well could take him. It just isn’t what I’ve been told behind the scenes and as I’ve said, nothing has changed.
The reason I’m doubling down on JJ McCarthy to go 2nd overall is because he is +1600. I have dissected quotes from everyone inside the Commanders organization from Kliff Kingsbury’s opening press conference to Adam Peters speaking at the Combine to Dan Quinn speaking at the Owners Meetings. The number one thing this team wants is leadership. Above all else, they want leadership. They want a QB who is tough to game plan against, a QB that moves the sticks on 3rd down, doesn’t absorb sacks and creates. Due to this, everyone logically goes to the rushing QB out of LSU but underlying metrics indicate this isn’t the case. Jayden Daniels had one of the worst Sack to Pressure (S2P) rates in college football over his career. When I say bad, I mean he profiles more like Justin Fields than Lamar Jackson. This is one of the most translatable stats from college to the Pros. Another translatable stat? How a QB performs on 3rd and long. Last year JJ McCarthy had the highest conversion rate in college football on 3rd and 7 or longer. I could go on for days about this but I’ll save that for next week’s breakdown.
All in all, this is where the draft changes. If Jayden Daniels goes 2nd, we have one path and if JJ McCarthy or Drake Maye go 2nd, we have that path. Due to value, my pockets are lined with JJ McCarthy going 2nd. We’ll find out in 9 days.
Play: JJ McCarthy to be drafted 2nd Overall (+1600) – Fanduel
1st Non-QB selected
Here is another spot I think we have great value. There is a scenario where QBs go 1-4 with the Arizona Cardinals moving out of 4. In this scenario, it makes it tougher for the Chargers to move back out of pick 5 like they want to. A few weeks ago, I floated the scenario of Arizona moving back to 11 and then back up to 5 in what is essentially a 3-way deal. Minnesota drafts a QB at 4, Arizona takes Marvin Harrison Jr. at 5 and the Chargers pick Offensive Line at 11. But, what if the Chargers stay at 5 and all QBs are off the board? What if the Giants are the team to swap with the Cardinals and the Cardinals are picking at 6? This is almost a checkmate move by the Cardinals and I would love it from a risk standpoint. Even with all three of the stud WRs on the board, I don’t think the Chargers take one. I think they stick to the Offensive Line and that is the route they go. Going beyond that, I don’t think Joe Alt is their guy. They have a franchise LT in place with Rashawn Slater. This brings me to JC Latham who is a guy who can play RT or RG for you and is a mauler, tone setter in the run game. As Lance Zeirlein once said, the Offensive Line is the most unpredictable position when it comes to predicting who lands where. It is all about team preference and need. JC Latham is currently sitting at +7500 to be the 1st Non-QB drafted, I’ll take that stab with a realistic situation any day of the week.
Play: JC Latham 1st non-QB selected (+7500) – Draftkings
UNDER 4.5 QBs selected in the 1st round
I don’t think Bo Nix or Michael Penix go in the 1st round. It is as simple as that and I’ve doubled down by betting both their overs (32.5) heavily. Bo Nix is an older prospect who played in a gimmick offense and has major arm strength concerns. The NFL views him as a Day 2 pick and there won’t be much competition for him as by the 5th pick of the draft, most team needs will be filled. The Broncos are NOT drafted him at 12. The only way we see Nix in the 1st is if the Broncos move back to pick 28ish (basically just the back end of the 1st) and draft him there. Still don’t see that happening. I think they would prefer Stidham and a Day 3 pick, maybe Jordan Travis, Spencer Rattler or Michael Pratt. Michael Penix, also, is NOT going in the 1st round. He has MAJOR injury concerns and also concerns behind that from what I’ve gathered. He has had four major surgeries including one on his throwing shoulder and two torn ACLs. He is going to be 24 years old which is old for a prospect. He throws a pretty ball but that is only a fraction of the piece of the pie that goes into drafting a QB. Reports have him crumbling under pressure and being unable to use his athleticism to his advantage. Basically, he is very fast but he can’t work a pocket and use it to make him a better player. He is closer to Ryan Fitzpatrick, a limited player who journeys but puts up some numbers while never ever being a team’s franchise guy. Also, teams moving into the back end of the 1st round isn’t really a thing. We saw it last year with Will Levis. That extra year is more or less irrelevant. If you find a franchise QB, you don’t care about that (ala Brock Purdy) and you just pay them regardless. They rarely play on it unless it is a weird Lamar Jackson type of situation (no agent) or Tua Tagovailoa (rare injury concerns).
Play: u4.5 QBs selected in the 1st round (+160) – Draftkings
All of my over/unders still stand along with their explanations in discord. I’ll list them below.
– JJ McCarthy to be drafted Top 5 (-155): 5u – Draftkings (4/12/24)
I posted this one on 4/12 and the line is already -175 up from the -155 I posted and is around -260 to -300 on every other book. He is going to be a top 5 pick and I am over 50% sure he is going 2nd overall. Teams love this guy and it isn’t hard to see why.
– Bo Nix o32.5 (-175): 2u – Draftkings (4/13/24)
The only way Bo Nix goes in the first round is if Denver trades back from 12 and collects a late 1st and pulls the trigger on him. Even then, I’m not sure they do it. He is a Day 2 pick. I don’t think him or Penix go R1.
– Brian Thomas o16.5 (-150): 2u – ESPNBet (4/13/24)
Only chance he goes before 16 here is if the Colts take him at 15. I don’t see a team trading up for him to leap the Colts. I think the Colts prefer a defensive end or a guy like AD Mitchell. As a note, I don’t think the Colts go CB, which is commonly mocked to them.
– Brian Murphy u16.5 (-160): 2u – Draftkings (4/13/24)
All the reports say he is underrated. We’ve just watched DTs get PAID in free agency. Plenty of teams could make the move for Murphy, I think his floor is Seattle at 16 so I’ll pay the juice.
– Michael Penix o32.5 (-140): 3u – Draftkings (4/14/24)
See above
– Laiatu Latu u18.5 (-140): 3u – Caesars (4/14/24)
I think He could go as high as 8 or 9. Also, there is interest from not only the Broncos at 12, but the Rams moving up from 19 to 12 to take an edge rusher. They’re a lot of suitors below 18 that is going to push his stock up, I don’t think the Rams will sit and wait for him at 19, move up to that 7-12 range and take Latu.
– Adonai Mitchell u27.5 (-140): 3u – Draftkings (4/15/24)
I’m gauging NFL teams are a lot higher than we think on Mitchell and perhaps a bit lower on Brian Thomas. I think he can go as high as 17 to the Jaguars.
Some longer shots due to the market
Jayden Daniels to be drafted 7th overall (+10000): 1u – Fanduel (4/14/24)
Jayden Daniels to be drafted 8th overall (+10000): 1u (4/14/24)
I’ll be honest. This is a fuck it gut feeling. As we get closer, I’m more and more confident JJ goes 2nd overall and I’m pounding my head wondering how bored the media is to be regurgitating Daniels being locked in as the 2nd overall pick. In the scenario that the Vikings splash and move up to 3 and take Maye (I think they do if JJ goes 2nd) then we have a situation where we don’t really have a suitor willing to move up for Daniels. I don’t think the Raiders pay up to the Cards to get up to 4. It’ll be too expensive. Then Chargers pick 5 and Raiders are inter division. We already have him to go 6th overall at long odds so this leaves Giants (probably taking Nabers in this scenario), Titans and Falcons. I’m not sure the Titans are aggressively pursuing a move back but could be swayed. I think the Falcons prefer a move back. The lines are too attractive to ignore.
