We hit the Padres team total last night in a wild comeback win in the bottom of the 10th. I’m still not sure how I didn’t have 2-1 posted as an exact score especially after saying “I see this game being controlled by Florida with a 2-0, 2-1, 3-1. 3-2 type lead in a close game in the third.” That one is on me. It would have been nice for Bobrovsky to win the Conn Smythe and I really thought he was going to after only giving up 1 goal and Florida winning the game. We cashed 17u on the Future, series bet, pre-game bet, and two of the three shot props but gave majority of it back on the long shot odds plays. It was Game 7 and I felt we would have hit one of them. Edmonton got lost in the 1st period only mustering up six shots hurting out saves totals on Bobrovsky.
There’s been some moves around the league during the Cup Finals with a big trade yesterday sending Linus Ullmark to Ottawa. I will get some articles out on these transactions if everyone is interested in that content still.
For MLB, I will start posting data I use when researching plays each day. You can use these articles for any information you are interested in to make your own additional plays. These articles will be as detailed as possible and I expect the rest of this month and July to be our turn around.
HOT PITCHER MATCHUPS
COLD PITCHER MATCHUPS
HOT BATTER MATCHUPS
COLD BATTER MATCHUPS
Cleveland vs. Baltimore: 6:35 pmÂ
Logan Allen is on the mound against Baltimore who have lost four in a row since taking the last two games in the Bronx. It’s classic regression after taking down a top team. Cleveland is a surprising front runner this year at 24 games above .500 and having a better record than the Orioles. Logan Allen comes in with an 8-3 record and a 5.23 ERA. His ERA is deceiving with a 7 run blow up game in Coors, and a 7 run game against the Tigers. Cole Irvin comes in on the other side at 5-3 with a 3.45 ERA. Irvin is not a good pitcher and I think this game could be a trap for the Orioles. The team total opens up at 4.5 -130, but Baltimore has scored a combined four runs in their last three games. The weather and Allen’s ERA attribute to today’s expected lines but I’m not willing to take the total of five. It’s supposed to be in the 90’s in Baltimore with 10 MPH winds blowing out. Logan Allen keeps the ball off the ground 56.2% to batters and Baltimore leads the league in runs per game and home runs to date. These lines all add up for Baltimore to explode offensively today, but Allen’s numbers against Baltimore suggest otherwise.
In Allen’s one start last season against Baltimore he went 7 innings giving up three hits, and 10 K’s.
| Mon 5/29 | @ BAL |
W
5-0 |
7.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 103 |
This was a very different lineup for the O’s however:
Both pitchers on the mound have good numbers in a small sample size against both lineups.
As much as I want to jump on this game due to the weather and the wind, it’s a game I would rather wait for and see what happens live. This game screams betting the over but I’m weary on the O’s lineup these past few games. If Allen gets tagged early we’ll be able to jump on it live. If Allen and Irvin both avoid the heat and keep the ball in the park we won’t be able to get out of it.
Philadelphia vs. Detroit: 6:40 pm
Philly has won the last seven matchups dating back to 2019. I’m annoyed I missed Nola’s start yesterday especially with the line being under -200 and the -1.5 line being close to even. They’re only -125 today with Skubal and Suarez on the mound. Skubal has already eclipsed his win total from last season with a lower ERA. Philly has taken 82% of the bets today and 90% of the money but the line has gone more in Detroit’s favor. No one relevant on the Phils’ besides White Merrifield has seen Skubal so while Philly should be able to blow Detroit out, I expect a tighter more low scoring game. I don’t see myself taking Detroit on the ML but the +1.5 intrigues me. If you wanted to play the Alt under in this game of 8.5 I don’t hate it, but unless you want to lay the -125 to just hope Philly gets the job done based on their lineup on paper I would avoid.
Seattle vs. Tampa Bay: 6:50 pm
I flat out don’t watch or play either of these two teams. Tampa Bay has won the last four in Tampa. I will be avoiding this game and looking at the later games. I don’t hate Seattle as a parlay piece though.
Toronto vs. Boston: 7:10 pmÂ
I love these matchups and playing the overs. They’re typically overs I ladder. I’m a bit surprised the line is 9.5 with Gausman on the mound. There won’t be much wind to help the ball fly in this game so I am reluctant to play the over. The under of 10.5 looks more appealing. Toronto has been atrocious offensively and only managed two runs off Bello in their last matchup. This is a game I could see Boston winning 3-2/4-2 once Toronto’s bullpen comes in. Vlad Guerrero Jr. is batting .412 against Bello with 4 extra base hits and two home runs so I would look to hit his props in this game and will with some correct scores.
Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati: 7:10 pmÂ
Hunter Greene and Mitch Keller have good numbers against opposing lineups tonight but I’m liking the 92 degree weather and 11 MPH winds blowing out. The over is catered towards both pitchers so we’re able to grab this line as low as 7.5. The Reds and Pirates bull pens are averaging close to 4 ERA. Keller has limited the Reds to 1 run each in his last two meetings against them going 6 and 7 innings. I feel today is a fade day on what the numbers say and that should line up for Keller to get hit. We need him to give up 3 in 6 or fewer innings with Greene doing the same. Once we get to the bullpens I expect the game to take off more. This can be a game whose total drops early after the 1st or 2nd inning before taking off and reaching 9+ runs. This will be a main target.
Yankees vs. Mets: 7:10 pmÂ
83% of the plays and 88% of the money are on the Yankees today with the line moving in the Mets favor. Cole is pitching his second start today and the wind is blowing out 10 MPH. Usually if the money is coming in that hard and the line shifts the opposite way it’s a cause for concern. I think the books will be wrong here as long as the Yankees lineup comes out as expected. I may add this game later.
Rangers vs Brewers: 8:10 pm
Both these teams can hit, and Milwaukee is usually a place I like to target runs. I expect the ball to fly tonight with Heaney and Bryse Wilson on the mound. With the line of 8.5 available I don’t see this game failing to get to 4-4. If you don’t want to lay the -150 to get 8.5 I recommend you playing Both Teams to score 4+ runs for +145. This game should end with 9-10 runs in it with both lineups seeing Heaney and Wilson.
Official Plays:
- 7:10 pm Vlad Guerrero Jr. over .5 home runs +450: .3u
- 7:10 pm Vlad Guerrero Jr. 2+ home runs +4000: .5u
- 7:10 pm Vlad Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 bases -130: 2u
- 7:10 pm Vlad Guerrero Jr. 5+ bases (FANDUEL) +550: 1u
- 7:10 pm Toronto vs Boston goes to extras +750: .2u
- 7:10 pm Pirates/Cincinnati over 7.5 runs -165: 3u
- 8:10 pm Texas/Milwaukee over 8.5 -150: 3u
