7/2 MLB Breakdown

i expect to hit a lot of games live tonight. Two years ago in NHL we finished the season up over 200 units. That huge year came off the bck of lines being significantly under priced and the lines being 2.5 or 3. Since then the books have not only caught up but over inflated the lines. Every team total I would target is listed at 4.5 pre game and they’re juiced meaning we need 5 runs to win in each matchup we play 4.5. Only four teams in the league are averaging 5 runs or more. There are 13 teams averaging 4.5 runs or more, but you don’t score fractional runs in games. The Kansas City Royals, who average 4.56 runs per game have scored more than 4 runs in 38 of their  86 games- 10 games under the 48 games they’ve scored 4 runs or less. Factor in all the anomaly games where teams score 8+ runs jacking up their average, you’re looking at significant losses playing these totals as we’re aware. The Cleveland Indians tonight who I would love to smash their total, is 4.5 -155. The Indians have scored 5 or more runs in 44 of their 82 games. lower that total down to 4, and you’re cashing in 52 out of the 82 games. That’s a big swing going from a 53.6 win percentage to a 63.4 win percentage… so what am I getting at? The Indians are only averaging .48 runs per game in the 1st inning. Our goal going forward will be to put the targets ou  pregame and waiting 1-2 innings into the game to get the pregame lines down a full run or two and increase our chances.

Games I will be looking at this for tonight are the Indians and Mets. When the live lines drop to 3.5 or better I will be jumping on both of them.

Author: Nightghost