7/5 MLB Breakdown

I will be targeting the following games LIVE tonight:

Paul Skenes has been dominating as of late and really hurting our Jackson Merrill ROTY future. Sanaynay and I were talking the other day and he pointed out had Merrill been in the AL his line would be -500 to win. We got that line at +10,000 and hes down to +300. I was hoping Skenes would have a setback game against the Braves but injuries to that lineup have hurt it. I expect the blow up game to come tonight. The Mets line opens up at 3.5 -110 and 2.5 is -200 meaning we should be in reach to hit 2.5 after the first inning. When it does you can hit it for 2 or 3 units. I expect the Mets to rebound after the 1-0 shutout yesterday against the Nationals and their lineup is full tonight.

It’s Patrick Corbin Day and Corbin hasn’t seen the Cardinals since 2021. I will be playing some Nolan Arenado props in this game as well as the team total. 4.5 is -150 right nnow with 3.5 being -225. This game may be tough to get live but I am not hitting 4.5 for -150. With the Cards not seeing Corbin in a few years I can see Corbin getting through an inning or more allowing the line to drop. If they get an early lead we can jump on it live if the game gets out of hand.

Shane Baz starts for Tampa Bay tonight and has been a bit all over the place in his limited starts this year. The Rays have lost five of the six games Baz has pitched this season giving up 3 or more runs in each game. The Rangers pregame line is 3.5 -150 and it playable pregame but we can get this line even better. Wyatt Langford has been on a hot stretch for the Rangers and his ROTY odds have moved from +2000 to +1100 to +350 where we hit it and is not the leader at +200. Texas has won 7 of 8 against the Rays including their Wild Card matchup.

I am hitting the Padres pregame and targeting Cecconi. The wind has a boost blowing out and I am putting it on Merrill to have a big game. He was moved into the 3 spot yesterday which I don’t understand. Sanaynay will tell you how much this move irritated the shit out of me putting a rookie as hot as he’s been in the three spot for the first time against Max Scherzer. If he puts him there today I expect a big game and at worst he stays in the six spot and continues to rake. I am laddering the game a bit expecting a high scoring game and being the line is 3.5 I don’t see a need to wait for live. If it drops to 2.5 I will double down.

Author: Nightghost