Monday 7/7 Breakdown
We have an early 12:35 game with the Mets and the Pirates. The series has been relatively low scoring and Keller has dominated the Mets bats with them going 7 for 60 in the small sample sizes he’s faced each batter. The Mets have won the last two after squandering many opportunities against Paul Skenes and getting embarrassed by the Pirates bats. This will be the first time the Pirates will see Christian Scott. Scott hasn’t been anything stand out so far and has struggled against good teams and been better against weaker teams like San Fran and Tampa Bay. I’d like to believe the Mets will put some runs up and the game will go over but Keller’s numbers against them will keep me off pregame. What I would like to see in this game is the first two innings go scoreless and the Pirates team total drop to 2.5 and the game over drop to the 6.5 range or better.
I’m going back to the well with the over in the Cards/Nationals game. I’m grabbing 8.5 pregame and letting the lineups go to work.
The Reds just got swept by the Tigers after sweeping the Yankees. It’s typical regression after winning a big series. They have a chance to rebound at home against Ryan Feltner and the Rockies. The team total opened up at 4.5 -150 so I’m going to give this an inning or two to get the team total down to 3.5 and then max it. If they score one in the first we will target it in the 3rd. This is the game I want to be on most.
The Twins have dominated the White Sox of late and already swept them in Chicago earlier this year. Chris Flexen is back on the mound who Minnesota saw in their last meeting on May 1st and tagged for two runs over five innings. That game broke open after the 6th for a 10-5 win in the Twins favor. I’m going to play this two ways. The ML is -190 pregame which shouldn’t change unless the game goes six innings without a lead or Chicago takes the lead first. I’m not waiting for either to happen so I will be hitting the Twins -1.5 pregame. Once the Twins team total drops to 3.5 we will be jumping on that line as well.
The Rangers have been frustrating me this year and have not had enough consistency for me to trust playing them right now, especially on the road in a division rivalry game.
The Braves will be a game we hit pregame and live. They are the biggest favorites on the day facing Yilber Diaz who will be making his major league debut. This will be a huge test for the rookie facing a Braves team who has scored five or more runs in seven of their last eight meetings. Chris Sale is a potential Cy Young candidate for the Braves this year revitalizing his career. I expect the Braves to be able to run up the total and keep the scoring going often. If the Braves get out early we will ladder the totals live.
Official Plays:
- 4:05 pm Cardinals/Nationals over 8.5 -150: 2u
- 8:10 pm Minnesota Twins -1.5 -115: 2u
- 9:40 pm Braves team total over 4.5 -140: 2u
LIVE TARGETS:Â
- Pirates Team Total over 2.5
- Twins Team Total over 3.5
- Reds Team Total over 3.5
- Braves Team Total over 3.5
