Sanaynay's Week 4 Waiver Wire

Sanaynay’s Week 4 Waiver Wire

Sanaynay

September 24, 2024
11:49 am

Week 4 Waiver Wire

Note: Every suggestion will be pulled from either the Yahoo or ESPN rostership, and everyone in these articles will be less than 50% rostered on at least one of those sites. Only some leagues are cut and dry the same so this is just a template for a 12 team full PPR league. There may be players that would have made this article but are rostered in over 50% of the leagues on both sites so they were not included because you’re either in a smaller league or bigger league. If you have questions, please get in chat and ask. Going forward, I will list the bye week schedule below as it is going to become more important as we plan for that moving forward.

Week 5: DET, LAC, PHI, TEN

Week 6: KC, LAR, MIA, MIN

Week 7: CHI, DAL

Week 8: NONE

Week 9: PIT, SF

Week 10: CLE, GB, LV, SEA

Week 11: ARI, CAR, NYG, TB

Week 12: ATL, BUF, CIN, JAX, NO, NYJ

Week 13: NONE

Week 14: BAL, DEN, HOU, IND, NE, WAS

Justin Fields (Pittsburgh Steelers) – 6%

Fields will be a hot commodity this week even though he hasn’t done what we are used to him doing for fantasy purposes and it is mainly due to the Steelers protecting him from himself. Which is good for the Pittsburgh Steelers but in terms of fantasy output, it’s limiting. If you bid on Fields it is because you hope they bring back the old Fields. He has averaged 13.9 PPG this year which is behind even Deshaun Watson, scoring 11.49, 11.4, and 18.4.

Sam Darnold (Minnesota Vikings) – 5%

Sammy D! Is Darnold an MVP candidate? Lets not get ahead of ourselves but I would love to see him win Comeback Player of the Year. Sammy is currently your QB4 on the year, averaging 19.3 PPG, scoring at least 14.9 in each game with 8 TDs and only two picks. He is playing extremely efficient ball against some of the harder defenses (SF & HOU). After the Vikings play the Packers and Jets they have a Bye week but after their gauntlet to start the year, they will be playing defenses like Detroit, LA Rams, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Tennessee all in a row. Darnold is proving to be matchup proof but we will see his real ceiling after their Bye week, don’t wait to snag him until then.

Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks) – 3%

Geno Smith has unsurprisingly played well and Ryan Grubb seems to have found his groove as a play caller in the NFL. Geno has put up outputs of 17.8, 17.9, and 11.4 offering a high floor and a great Week 4 matchup against the Detroit Lions. He has done this with only throwing one TD in each of his first three games, a stat I see changing in the short term future due to variance within itself.

Braelon Allen (New York Jets) – 50%

I’d say in most of our leagues Allen is scooped up and he was my main priority last week but this is driven home even more after Week 3. It is clear that the Jets love Breece Hall, no one is disputing that. But what is also clear is that they love and trust Allen, who is still the youngest player in the NFL and half of Aaron Rodgers age. He is up to a 37% rush attempt share with a 20% route participation and 38% target per route run from Week 3’s Thursday Night win over the Patriots. While Breece Hall is still the 1A, we should be viewing Allen as the 1B and this could develop into a situation similar to what we see in Detroit where they preserve their backs by alternating drives as Allen continues to grow as an NFL player. If Breece Hall misses time? Allen will be considered a T5 RB any given week without Hall.

Bucky Irving (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – 30%

I still have a hard time unloading on what is still currently the RB2 on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. However, Bucky has been ballin out and I don’t view Rachaad White as this world beater. What is solid, but that’s it. White is still dominating the snaps, seeing 38 snaps to Irving’s 14, taking 20 early down snaps to 6, the sole goal line snap and six of the seven 3rd down snaps. On the season Irving has taken 42% of the team’s rush attempts to White’s 48% and in Week 3 Irving saw 56% to White’s 38%. Bucs’ Head Coach Todd Bowles raves about Irving and thinks he embodies what the Bucs are about but he ultimately doesn’t make the decision on game day, that is Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen. However, during the week Bowles could be hammering it home in his head as a strong suggestion. Keep an eye out for Irving to possibly overtake this backfield by mid season if this production gap continues.

Rico Dowdle (Dallas Cowboys) – 20%

Mike McCarthy was bitching in his post game presser that the Cowboys need more out of their backs but his play calling consistently sets them up to fail. Nonetheless, Dowdle took over as the RB1 in Week 3 albeit against one of the best run defenses in the NFL. This quietly gives us a buy window on Dowdle as he only produced 32 yards rushing on eight carries but he caught three of his five targets for 24, good for 8.6 PPR points. He took 53% of the team’s rush attempts in Week 3 and ran a route on 33% of the drop backs with a 25% target per route run. The interesting part is that he has now taken 58% of the team’s short down and distance snaps to 25% of Zeke’s. Even though none have come inside the 5 (Cowboys haven’t been there), it is worth noting that Dowdle may be viewed as a potential goal line back for this team as well which would be phenomenal for fantasy.

Roschon Johnson (Chicago Bears) – 1%

Don’t go overboard with Roschon, I still don’t trust Shane Waldron with his usage. However, in Roschon’s first active game of the year he managed to take 38% of the snaps and by halftime was outpacing D’Andre Swift (who sucks). Swift dropped from a 68% and 67% snap share to 52% with Roschon playing well. Johnson ended up taking 29% of the rush attempts and having a 38% route participation with a 19% target per route run. Johnson is the only back on the Bears roster that presents a 3-down skillset with Swift being a terrible rusher and Herbert being a terrible receiver. If anyone from this backfield is going to emerge, it is likely Johnson. Don’t let it be lost that Waldron is next to impossible to predict and just when you think you have it figured out, he will flip the switch. This backfield is a clusterfuck but taking a stab at Roschon if he is available for free is worth it with the upside he presents.

Top RB Handcuffs

Braelon Allen (New York Jets)
Zach Charbonnet (Seattle Seahawks)
Tyler Allgeier (Atlanta Falcons)
Blake Corum (LA Rams)
Ty Chandler (Minnesota Vikings)
Trey Sermon (Indianapolis Colts)
Bucky Irving (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Antonio Gibson (New England Patriots)
Tyrone Tracy (New York Giants)
Chase Brown (Cincinnati Bengals)
Ray Davis (Buffalo Bills)
Tank Bigsby (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Wan’Dale Robinson (New York Giants) – 15%

Robinson is the WR2 in New York and almost all of the targets are being funneled to both Robinson and Nabers. While Nabers is the WR1 and has immediately planted himself amongst the best WRs in the NFL after less than a month of his career, Robinson is quietly performing well right behind him. On the season, he has a 74% route participation with a 26% target per route run and 24% target share overall and a 40% 3rd down target rate. He has 9.8 PPR points or more in each of his games and has at least eight targets in two of the three. The volume is there to be a PPR whore moving forward week in and week out, offering a high floor.

Quentin Johnston (LA Chargers) – 10%

Welp, is Johnston good? It sure seems like he might actually be good. The only hesitation I have with QJ is that a lot of his production has come on TD passes. He may be averaging 13.8 PPR points per game but he has only caught 10 balls for 133 yards so far and most of his production has come from his three scores. He has a great 86% route participation, seeing a respectable 22% target per route run and a very nice 14.4 ADOT with 39% of the team’s air yards but his own rookie teammate, Ladd McConkey, has a 78% route participation (room to grow), 29% target per route run and 27% target share and is right behind him with 30% of the team’s air yards and McConkey has seen 24% of the team’s play action targets. I like QJ but he is a player that I think the market likes more than me moving forward but that is because systematically I have volume higher as a priority when making these split hair decisions such as Wan’Dale over QJ in the waivers.

Jauan Jennings (San Francisco 49ers) – 8%

I like Jennings and sure let’s go after him but I’m afraid the market is going to go way overboard here. Jennings is a beast and a great football player but this was a perfect scenario for him to have a career game. The Rams defense is horrible and the 49ers were slim on talent. Once these playmakers start to come back over the next couple weeks (George Kittle and Deebo Samuel), Jennings is going to take a back seat and return to being the 4th option on this offense. He should be viewed more as a short term solution that has a plus matchup Week 4 at home against New England and another plus matchup in Week 5 before facing the Seahawks in Week 6 which is about when his teammates are expected to return.

Jalen Nailor (Minnesota Vikings) – 0%

Nailor just keeps performing. I want to see how this situation plays out in terms of target share once Jordan Addision returns but I think it will be beneficial for Nailor in the sense of coverage being taken away and Nailor is clearly getting open. He has a 83% route participation on the year but only a 12% target per route run but a generous 14.3 ADOT. Head Coach Kevin O’Connell is dialing up plays designed for Nailor, getting him open and Darnold is hitting him in stride perfectly, playing incredible, fluid ball. Nailor is coming off the back of a 100% route participation game with a 17% target share. I think he continues to grow in this offense as he gets more and more reps.

Tyler Conklin (New York Jets) – 5%

As long as teams continue to double cover and try to take away Garrett Wilson, Aaron Rodgers will go to his secondary pieces. One of the main benefactors is Tyler Conklin, as he just posted the TE4 numbers, catching five of his six targets for 93 yards. The 14.3 performance put him as the TE14 on the year even though he has barely played the first two games. If this keeps up he could get some end zone looks and become a viable weekly starter. The Jets host the Broncos with extended rest in Week 4.

Cole Kmet (Chicago Bears) – 2%

In Week 3 Kmet put up 25.7 PPR points on the back of 11 targets, catching 10 of them for 97 yards and a score. Most of this is fluff and was when the Bears were in comeback mode, basically abandoning the run and throwing every play. Caleb Williams ended up with 52 pass attempts, a number up from the 33 he averaged the first two weeks. This scenario is unlikely to happen again but it is worth noting that he was in same target share with DJ Moore (10) and Rome Odunze (11). When Keenan Allen comes back I would expect him to heavily eat into Kmet’s volume so temper your expectations with Kmet moving forward. This is just such a bleak position we are really grasping at straws here.

Noah Fant (Seattle Seahawks) – 2%

Fant pulled in all six of his targets in Week 3 for 60 receiving yards. He is quietly up to a 17% target per route run and 13% target rate overall. As always, TE is bleak so Fant is worth a look this week against Detroit if needed.

DST

Miami Dolphins – 0%

Miami’s defense hasn’t been anything special this year posting just a -.04 EPA/Play overall which is 14th in the NFL but they get to host the Tennessee Titans in Week 4. Will Levis has allowed teams to score absurd amounts each week with Chicago putting up 22 in Week 1, New York putting up 15 in Week 2, and Green Bay putting up 21 in Week 3. Levis hasn’t played HORRIBLE per say but he has made inexcusable mistake after mistake which has let defenses get scores.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 0%

The Bucs host the Eagles this week in a plus matchup schematically. They matchup well, focusing on stopping the run and being one of the better run defenses in the NFL even if they are down a few key pieces. Last year when these two teams met in the Wild Card round of the playoffs the Bucs harassed Hurts, sacking him three times and hitting him a total of six times, accumulating nine fantasy points in the process. Hurts has a hard time adjusting to pressure and the Bucs bring it with the best of them.

Arizona Cardinals – 0%

Arizona is going to eat Jayden Daniels alive. Kliff Kingsbury isn’t letting Daniels sit in the pocket so he will still do the dink and dunk but Jonathan Gannon is out of Kliff Kingsbury’s league and will attack, attack, attack, putting Daniels on edge. I expect quite a few sacks in this one mixed with mental mistakes and turnovers.