Two good get-right days in a row. Full slate tonight. Lets get right into it:
Tampa Bay is a chalk play tonight. They are -300 and the team total is a juiced 3.5. I’m staying off those plays. What I find to be of value is the winning margin plays on MGM. I don’t see this game going into OT. Tampa should win in all intents and purposes but I am weary that they get to their 4 total. We had a losing week because of mid season regression and we should have pivoted. I did not, but we have had a great season enough to endure the losses and still be able to move forward. Trying to get last seasons debacle out of everyone’s mind has been the hardest part but I have enough of a proven track record to continue to push through and have your trust. So while we are in this week of the season where teams are preparing for the trade deadline and playoff positioning, we can tweak our plays a bit until the final stretch of the season that we have historically smashed. With this game I am playing it safe. Tampa Bay has scored more than three goals only twice in their last nine. The recent history in the Ducks Lightning games have shown they can go any way. The Ducks won their last matchup and they have kept the games withing 1-2 goals enough to find value in the Lightning to win by 1 and Lightning to win by 2 plays. To get +675 and +575 is great value. The Ducks will score tonight. Even if it’s one. So that leaves us two scenarios. The Lightning miss the team total and win 3-1 or 2-1 cashing the winning margin plays, or the Lightning blow this game out which puts us in two positions; 1. to hit the team total live and play it up to 4.5/5.5, or this game hits the 3rd period with a 3-1/4-2/3-0 score giving us an empty net opportunity to semi hedge our plays.
Columbus has been a team climbing the standings as of late winning five in a row and six of seven. They’ve crept up into the second wild card spot and are fourth in the metro division. They are now ahead of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, the Rangers, and the Islanders. Good on them. They’re playing for Johnny Hockey and they’re making progress. Do not expect them to finish ahead of most of these teams by seasons end or make the playoffs but if they do it would be a great story. The Sharks are coming off a game we smashed the over on against the Red Wings and it was the start of a 10u win plus the over 8 +375 ladder play. I’m going in the opposite direction tonight. This over is juiced at 6.5 to -115. If Columbus is playing as the team they are in the standings then this should be a game the Jackets win in low scoring fashion. WE HAVE A FIRST HERE. This will be the first ever UNDER LADDER we play. Elvis Merzlikins is 2-3-1 against the Sharks in his career with a 3.05 GAA so going under here doesn’t sound logical. Merizlikins is having his best season since the death of his friend MatÄ«ss Kivlenieks. Columbus has been riddled with tragedy over the past few years. Yaroslav Askarov has also been stellar for the Sharks since being traded. He comes into the game with a 2.39 GAA. I expect both teams to play a slower and more defensive style game tonight especially with Columbus place in the standings. They have an opportunity here to maintain a playoff spot.Â
Detroit is coming off a 7 game winning streak before the Sharks loss on Tuesday. The losses should continue to come especially against a Florida team they have lost 22 of the last 25 against. You can splash the Panthers to win in regulation at -145 but I want some exposure to the after 60 min mark. If this game goes into overtime the line should be similar and we can double down on them there.
Sheldon Keefe returns to Toronto for the first time since his departure so this game will have extra meaning. The Devils will want this win for him and the Leafs will want to show they’re fine without him. John Tavares is out for the Leafs after having a bit of a career resurgence since handing over the captaincy to Auston Matthews. I will be laying off this game but if you want to chase some units we’re going to splash 2+ goals props.
If I HAD to play the Flyers/Islanders game it would be the Islanders but neither team is playing well enough.
I’m going with Dallas here with their team total so affordably priced. Patrik Laine has been a huge boost for the Canadiens and they are creeping up the standings like the Blue Jackets, but a meeting in Dallas should pose some exposure for them. This is a game Dallas needs to dominate.
Stay tuned for the 10 pm slate…
Official Plays:
- 7 pm Lightning to win by 1 +675: 1u
- 7 pm Lightning to win by 2 +575: 1u
- 7 pm San Jose/Columbus under 6.5 -145: 2u
- 7 pm San Jose/Columbus under 5 +210: .5u
- 7 pm San Jose/Columbus under 4.5 +280: .5u
- 7 pm San Jose/Columbus under 4 +400: .5u
- 7 pm Florida ML -145: 1u
- 7 pm Jesper Bratt 2+ goals +1800: .5u
- 7 pm Timo Meier 2+ goals +2200: .5u
- 8 pm Dallas Team Total over 3.5 -120: 3u
- 9 pm Rangers ML -115: 3u
