Conference Championship Weekend Betting Breakdown

Hey what’s up everyone. We have three more games left of the 2023-2024 season. All three, regardless of who wins this weekend, are going to be great games. I think we have some edges and some advantageous matchups we can exploit. As a reminder, I’ve been hitting a lot of these alternate lines and I’m going to continue through at least this week. If you can’t get these alternate lines, ask me in chat. If some of these lines have already changed, again ask me in chat. That is the best path to getting the right unit size on these bets as these props move so fast. You NEED to be in chat to get them in as soon as possible. Let’s take down this slate and cruise into the Super Bowl!

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Sanaynay9 

Disclosure: How I bet 

Betting Log: Betting Results (+225.25)

KC @ BAL

• Lamar Jackson o57.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 3u – Fanduel (Posted 1/21/24 @ 10:50pm)
• Lamar Jackson 60+ Rushing Yards (-128): 2u – Fanduel (I want 5u total on this
• Lamar Jackson 100+ Rushing Yards (+390): 1u – DraftKings
• Lamar Jackson 110+ Rushing Yards (+600): 1u – Draftkings
• Lamar Jackson 120+ Rushing Yards (+800): 2u – Draftkings
• Travis Kelce o62.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 3u – Draftkings
• Patrick Mahomes o25.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 2u – MGM
• Isiah Pacheco o64.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 2u – Draftkings

ADDED

• Noah Gray o9.5 Receiving Yards (-120): 3u – MGM (1/26/24 @ 6:04pm)
• Noah Gray 1+ TD (+1000): 1u – Fanduel (1/26/24 @ 6:04pm)
• Mark Andrews o34.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 3u – MGM (1/27/24 @ 8:16am)
• Mark Andrews 1+ TD (+260): 1u – Fanduel (1/27/24 @ 8:16am)

DET @ SF

• Brock Purdy o257.5 Passing Yards (-114): 5u – Fanduel (Posted 1/21/2024 @ 8:35pm)
• Brandon Aiyuk o74.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – PointsBet
• Brandon Aiyuk 110+ Receiving Yards (+350): 2u – PointsBet
• Brandon Aiyuk 125+ Receiving Yards (+600): 1u – PointsBet
• Brandon Aiyuk 140+ Receiving Yards (+1100): 2u – PointsBet
• George Kittle o57.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – Draftkings
• George Kittle 100+ Receiving Yards (+500): 1u – Draftkings
• George Kittle 110+ Receiving Yards (+700): 2u – Draftkings
• George Kittle 125+ Receiving Yards (+1200): 2u – PointsBet
• Amon-Ra St. Brown o7.5 Receptions (+105): 3u – Draftkings
• Jahmyr Gibbs 1+ TD (+145): 2u – Fanduel
• Jahmyr Gibbs 2+ TD (+1000): 2u – Fanduel
• David Montgomery 1+ TD (+155): 2u – Fanduel
• David Montgomery 2+ TD (+1100): 2u – Fanduel

*Note: Per usual, I’ll be eying Jahmyr Gibbs rushing yards after the 1st drive of the Lions. 

**UNOFFICIAL (I played them all for 1u)**
Gus Edwards 1st TD (+750) – Draftkings
Noah Gray 1st TD (+5000) – MGM
Brandon Aiyuk 1st TD (+900) – Fanduel
David Montgomery 1st TD (+1000) – Draftkings

Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) @ Baltimore Ravens (13-4) -3.5, O/U 44.5

Patrick Mahomes is a QB I’ll never bet against but he will have his hands full in this matchup as the Chiefs travel to Baltimore. Weather shouldn’t be an issue as it is forecast to be clear with temperatures around the mid to high 40s. As I mentioned last week, the Ravens have the best pass defense in the NFL and match up well against the Chiefs offense with what they want to accomplish. The Ravens boast the best pass DVOA (best overall as well) in the NFL while allowing the 7th fewest passing yards (216) in the NFL, lowest yards per attempt (5.8), and fewest passing TDs (1) per game this season. They led the NFL regular season in takeaways (31), TD rate (2.8%), sacks (60), and most expected points added by their passing defense (69.63). On top of that, they had the 2nd most passes defense (92) and 5th most QB hits (117). They went out last week and held CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans in check, keeping him to 175 yards passing on 33 attempts. The Ravens didn’t force any turnovers or generate any sacks but this was because the Texans Offensive Coordinator, Bobby Slowik, kept everything condensed to protect Stroud and give him a clean pocket. Due to this, they had a slim route tree and decisions for Stroud to make, allowing the Ravens to cover well and giving Stroud nowhere to go with the ball. This won’t be how the Chiefs approach this game. Andy Reid is going to have more creative designs and routes, forcing more of a chess match rather than just lining up and hoping it works out. The Chiefs threw the ball the highest in the NFL over expectation (6.6%) this year and I have no reason to think Reid would adjust anything just because the matchup is tough. While Mahomes’ passing yards isn’t the angle I’d go with on Mahomes, his rushing yards offer a value. Over his postseason career, Mahomes has run for an average of 28.26 yards per game. This is taken with the fact he only ran for a total of 19 yards in his first two postseason games combined back in 2018. Removing those games, his number jumps up to 31.15 yards per game. With the Ravens playing tough pass defense, their scheme mitigating the deep play and their pass rush being very effective, it will open up Mahomes to scramble more and give him the opportunity to run more. I think he tops 30 in this game. 

Just like last week, Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce are the go to targets from this group. During the Divisional Round we saw Marquez Valdes-Scantling get a few targets, four to be exact, which was good for a 19% target share as he had 56% route participation and a 29% target per route run. He had a generous 19 average depth of target but there is very good reason to believe this was a flash in the pan and just happened to be the guy open downfield for Mahomes. Mahomes only threw the ball 23 times and from what I could tell, MVS wasn’t the 1st read on any of his completions. Along with MVS, Rashee Rice saw a 19% target share and led the WR group with 76% route participation. Rice ended up with 47 yards receiving on four receptions. Unsurprisingly, Travis Kelce emerged as the go to target in this game, seeing a 29% target share to go with 96% route participation. Kelce caught five of his six targets for 75 yards receiving and two scores. The last two weeks Kelce has a 31% and 29% target share which are his two highest marks since Week 7 of the regular season. It seems the Chiefs spend the last two months of the season preserving Kelce and focusing on finding which WR would emerge from their WR group. They found out it was Rice and peppered him as the season played out those final two months. While Rice is still the go to WR for the Chiefs, Kelce is the go to target for Mahomes moving forward. This week presents a tough matchup for this receiving group as a whole, as I mentioned above in the Mahomes section. The Ravens have now allowed the 7th fewest receiving yards (136) to opposing WRs per game and the 13th fewest receiving yards (47) to opposing TEs per game. Even with those numbers, as I mentioned last week, the Ravens have been susceptible to the top target from the opposing team’s receiving group. Last week Nico Collins left a lot on the table due to CJ Stroud’s inability to find him, but he was open more than his five receptions for 68 yards output would suggest. Prior to that they gave up 76 yards to Tyreek Hill on 6 receptions, 113 yards to Brandon Aiyuk on six receptions, 85 yards to Puka Nacua on five receptions, 115 yards to Cooper Kupp on eight receptions, 106 yards to Keenan Allen on 14 receptions, and 98 yards receiving to Amari Cooper on six receptions. All of these games took place since Week 10. They can also be had against top receiving TEs as we saw George Kittle drop 126 yards receiving on seven receptions in Week 16 and Trey McBride reach 95 yards receiving on 10 receptions in Week 8. Others who notably had good games and outperformed expectations were Dalton Schultz last week (5/43), Durham Smythe in Week 17 (3/54), Davis Allen in Week 14 (4/50/1), Tanner Hudson in Week 11 (4/49), David Njoku in Week 10 (6/58), and Sam LaPorta in Week 7 (6/52). The Ravens bend but don’t break on defense. They are willing to give up a few yards and completions, forcing the opposing offense to make mistakes. Once the opposing team gets around the 30, they tighten up and send exotic blitzes and bring pressure. This usually halts drives but throughout the game, we see top players have success. I expect Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce to repeat that in this game. 

On the ground, I think Isiah Pacheco will continue to have success. He continues to run hard and showed more success in last week’s road win over the Buffalo Bills. Pacheco ran the ball 15 times for 97 yards and a score. He has now topped 89 rushing yards in each of his last three games and four of his last five. Over those five games, he has averaged 90.4 rushing yards and 17.2 rushing attempts a game. The only game that was a dud was the Chiefs random loss to the Raiders in Week 17. With that game presenting the 11 carry, 26 yard performance for Pacheco, he has at least 15 carries in the other four games since Week 16. As I mentioned last week against the Texans, the Ravens defense is susceptible to the run. Prior to the Texans game last week, the Ravens had allowed the 12th most rushing yards (101) and 4th highest yards per carry (4.8) from Week 10 through Week 18. They allowed five of those RBs to exceed 100 yards rushing but since their offense is so good, team’s don’t have all four quarters to hammer the rock. They were able to bottle up Singeltary last week but it is mainly because the Texans didn’t pose any threat in the air. That won’t be the case in this game as the Chiefs will get Pacheco in space and the Ravens will be forced to respect Mahomes and his playmaking ability. I think Pacheco gets some space in this one and can top his 65 rushing yard line.

Lamar Jackson took the game into his own hands last week as the Ravens trounced the Texans 34-10, outsourcing them 24-0 in the 2nd half. Lamar ended the game with 152 passing yards while adding 100 on the ground and scoring four total TDs. Since the Ravens bye week in Week 13, Lamar now has at least 11 rushing attempts in three of his last five games, topping 70 or more yards in each of those three games. The other two games, he ran the ball seven times for 45 yards against the 49ers in Week 16 and six times for 35 yards in Week 17 against the Dolphins. In those two games he didn’t hit 11 rushing attempts, he threw for an average of 286.5 yards and had seven passing TDs in those two games. My money is on Lamar having a game on the ground as opposed to the air in this one. As I mentioned last week, the Chiefs pass defense has played like one of the best in the NFL of late. Since Week 8 only four QBs have topped 200 passing yards over that 12 game span with one of them being in Week 18, where the Chiefs rested all of their starters and Easton Stick threw the ball for 258 yards on a whopping 47 attempts. Over that span they have allowed the 3rd fewest passing yards (191) per game and the 2nd fewest yards per attempt (5.9). It gets even tighter when you narrow it down to the previous five games (removing Week 18 with backups). Over that five game stretch with the Chiefs at full strength, they have allowed an average of 164.8 passing yards per game and have held Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen to a combined 385 passing yards on 72 attempts the last two weeks in the playoffs. They have yet to allow more than one passing TD since Week 15. However, over that span they have been susceptible on the ground from opposing rushing QBs. In Week 17 Jake Browning ran the ball seven times for 32 yards and a score. In the Wild Card round, Tua Tagovailoa ran the ball three times for 25 yards and last week in the Divisional round, Josh Allen ran the ball 12 times for 72 yards and two scores. Unless the Chiefs adjust their defense and force Lamar to throw (I don’t think they will), Lamar is going to have another game where he runs for around 100 yards on the ground. 

As we saw last week, it is tough to trust any WR from this group, especially in this matchup. I’ll save everyone time from the jump and piggy back on the Lamar Jackson section that I won’t be playing any of these WRs. Since Week 14, only one WR has topped 50 receiving yards on the Chiefs and that was Tyreek Hill during the Wild Card round of the playoffs, and he did so on the back of a 53 yard TD in which he came back on an underthrown ball. Over those six games since Week 14, the Chiefs are allowing the 4th fewest receiving yards (94) per game to all opposing WRs. They have only allowed one TD to those WRs in that span and have allowed them to only get 8.7 receptions per game, which is again the 4th fewest in the NFL over that span. They have done this against some top end WRs as well. They held Stefon Diggs to 24 yards on four receptions in Week 14, Davantte Adams to four yards on one receptions in Week 16, Ja’Marr Chase to 41 yards on three receptions in Week 17, Tyreek Hill to 62 yards on five receptions (53 yards coming on that one play), Jaylen Waddle to 31 yards on two receptions, and Stefon Diggs again to 21 yards on three receptions. Holding opposing WRs in check has not come at the expense of allowing opposing TEs to succeed…on the surface. They are allowing the 14th fewest receiving yards (54) to opposing TEs over that same six game time frame. When you look at the opponents over this span, I don’t think we can come to the conclusion that the Chiefs are just good at guarding TEs. The best TE they faced in these six games was Dalton Kincaid (twice), and both times they played, Kincaid had a solid game. In Week 14 he caught five balls for 21 yards and last week he caught five balls for 45 yards. The next best TE of this grouping was Hunter Henry. Yes, that Hunter Henry was the next best TE they faced. He ended up catching seven balls for 66 yards and a score. Even Tanner Hudson got in on the act and caught three balls for 38 yards. I think the Ravens attack this portion of the field with Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews (assuming he returns) and I think they have success doing so. Predicting who will get more snaps between Andrews and Likely is going to be impossible unless a leak on the plan releases before the game but even then, I wouldn’t trust it enough to bet on it. Unfortunately it is a spot I think does well but we will be unable to bet it. Last week I expected Odell Beckham Jr. to take a step forward in snap share and show to be a leader and alpha for this pass catching group. That did not happen and instead he regressed down his lowest route participation of the season. This game OBJ saw 28% route participation when his previous low was Week 10 when he had a 40% participation. He had his lowest target share (5%) on the season as well in this game. The two WRs who stepped up were Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor while Zay Flowers continued to pace the group. Flowers had 86% route participation with a 24% target share and 20% target per route run. Bateman had a 72% route participation, 14% target share and 14% target per route run. Nelson Agholor had 62% route participation, 19% target share and 22% target per route run. Bateman was used more downfield, seeing a 12 yard average depth of target. Zay Flowers was next at 8.8 and Agholor after that with a 7.25. As I mentioned above, it is really hard to trust any of these WRs given how much the Ravens spread it around and how little they throw the ball. They want to focus on dominating on the ground and are likely to have success doing so in this game so why force the pass? 

We got our first look at the Ravens backfield since they added Dalvin Cook and Justice Hill once again dominated the snaps. He took 56.9% of the snaps and 34% of the rushing attempts while having 59% route participation and a 10% target share. These are great numbers and indicate that Justice has finally taken over as the main lead back in Baltimore. Behind him was Gus Edwards, seeing a 34% snap share with 26% of the rushing attempts. Gus isn’t worth mentioning in the air as he only has 17% route participation. Dalvin Cook got his feet wet, seeing 13% of the snaps but he caught fire with them as he ran the ball well, generating more touches and resulting in 21% of the rushing share. Justice Hill ended with 66 rushing yards on 13 attempts while adding 11 receiving yards on two receptions in the air. Gus Edwards ran the ball 10 times for 40 yards and caught one ball for one yard. Dalvin Cook ran the ball eight times for 23 yards but only gained four yards after his first carry, which was an explosive 19 yard run. I expect to see more of Justice Hill and Gus Edwards in this game. On defense, the Chiefs present a beatable running attack. Entering this game they have the 27th ranked rush DVOA. They rank in the bottom 10 in almost every rushing metric. They give up 4.57 yards per carry (28th) to opposing backs, have the 32nd ranked power success, 24th ranked “stuffed” (tackled behind the line of scrimmage) ranking, ranked 16th in second level tackling and have the 29th ranked open field tackling defense. I expect Justice and Gus to have rushing success alongside Lamar in this game.

Takeaway

If I’m being honest, the only chance I see the Chiefs having at this game is if the NFL wants two weeks of Taylor Swift marketing leading up to the Super Bowl. The Ravens strengths mesh with the Chiefs weaknesses and the Chiefs strengths clash with the Ravens strengths. The Chiefs want to throw and will be stonewalled. The Ravens want to run and should have success. Throw in the fact the Ravens are at home for their first home AFC Championship game in franchise history and they should be able to bring home the victory in front of their home fans. Still, I’ll never bet against Patrick Mahomes. He is just too good and can win any game he is in.

Detroit Lions (12-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (12-5) SF -7, O/U 51

Jared Goff is going to have his hands full in this game. Where Jared Goff feels most comfortable attacking opposing offenses is through the middle of the field and that is where the 49ers have the most success against opposing passing offenses. The 49ers boast the 5th best pass DVOA in the NFL and had relative success. They have held opposing QBs to the 13th fewest passing yards (230) per game this season while allowing only a 6.3 yards per attempt which ranked 5th best in the NFL. Last week they played well against the Green Bay Packers, holding Jordan Love to only 194 yards on 34 attempts, picking him off twice, including a game sealing pick with :52 seconds left in the game. This game had consistent rain throughout and it was clear the rain bothered Brock Purdy but I don’t think it affected Jordan Love as much as the 49ers schematics did. The 49er will squeeze opposing QBs, playing a ton of zone giving them small windows to throw to. Jared Goff fits this better than what Jordan Love did and it comes with the experience Goff has in his career. Since Week 15, Goff has averaged 280 passing yards per game which ranks 6th in the NFL over that span. He has done so by averaging 8.4 yards per attempt and tossing for at least 257 in each of the six games. The kicker here is that all six games have been played in a dome, where Goff feels the most comfortable. This game is being played outside and while it is in San Francisco, it isn’t the same as a cozy dome. I expect Goff to have some success here but I’m not confident enough to lay money on him getting over 262 passing yards even though he has done so in each of his last four games and in five of his last six games. 

The Lions receiving group is centralized to two players and rounded out by their backfield. Those two players are Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. In last week’s Divisional Round victory, ARSB saw a 32% target share and Sam LaPorta absorbed a 27% target share. Combined these two players accounted for 59% of the Lion’s targets. No other WR or TE topped 10%. Jameson Williams was the “3rd” option behind those two, seeing 65% route participation and a 10% target share with a 13% target per route run. Josh Reynolds saw more routes than Jameson with 83% route participation but only a 7% target share on 8% target per route run. Amon-Ra St. Brown ended with only 77 yards on eight snags with a score while Sam LaPorta was very impressive, only being two weeks removed from his knee injury, catching nine balls for 65 yards. Jameson Williams caught two passes for 35 yards and Reynolds caught two passes for 27 yards and a score. Amon-Ra St. Brown and LaPorta are going to get their targets and I trust Ben Johnson to design plays to get them open but the part of the field where both have immense success is where the 49ers succeed. Due to this, I’m not going to be laddering either but I want their volume. The 49ers have the top DVOA against the middle of the field. They rank 5th in the deep middle and 1st in the short middle. This isn’t the end all be all because not every target for these players comes in the middle of the field but it is where Goff feels most comfortable. The 49ers like to keep everything in front of them and they are fantastic tacklers. I’ll be looking at ARSB and LaPorta receptions over yards in this one. 

This backfield continues to be a near 50/50 split. Over the last two playoff games, Montgomery has led in ground usage whereas Gibbs has seen more volume in the air. Montgomery has seen 55% of the snaps, 48% of the rushing attempts and 45% route participation but only a 7% target share and 14% target per route run. Gibbs on the other hand has 35% of the snaps, 34% of the rushing attempts and 31% route participation. This has resulted in a 13% target share and whopping 33% target per route run. Montgomery has run the ball 24 times for only 90 rushing yards with a score. He has caught four of his five targets for 25 receiving yards. Gibbs has run the ball 17 times for 99 yards and two scores while adding 83 receiving yards, catching all eight of his targets in the process. It is clear on tape how good Gibbs is in space while Montgomery does the dirty work between the tackles. The 49ers haven’t exactly been a stone wall rushing defense this year, indicating the Lions may have some success here. The Lions carry the 5th ranked rushing DVOA whereas the 49ers hold the 15th ranked rush DVOA. The edge here goes to the Lions offensive line, who has the top adjusted line yards rank, 5th ranked “stuffed” offensive line, open field and second level. The 49ers rank 10th in defensive adjusted line yards, 17th in RB yards per carry (4.13), 29th in power success, 14th in “stuffed” ranking, 7th in second level and 21 in open field. Every angle favors the Lions ground game. If the Lions can have sustained success on the ground it is going to drain the clock, keeping them right in the thick of it until the final whistle. I have interest in both Montgomery and Gibbs in this game. This is especially true when it comes to short yardage with the 49ers having the 29th ranked power success rush defense. Sign me up for both Gibbs and Montgomery at the goal line in this one.

The San Francisco air game is my favorite part of this weekend and it starts with Brock Purdy. Sticking with the same sample size as I mentioned last week, looking at the Lions’ pass defense since Week 16, they suck. Since Week 16 they have now allowed all five passers to throw for at least 345 yards against them. Nick Mullens threw for 807 yards (played twice) on 80 attempts, Dak Prescott threw for 345 on 38 attempts, Stafford hit 367 on 36 attempts and Baker Mayfield got to 349 on 41 attempts. Baker Mayfield also left a lot on the field with his WRs dropping multiple passes so it should have easily been over 375 for Baker. The wild part about all of these QBs smashing their expectations is just that, all of them left production on the field due to drops or abnormal ending to games (ala Week 17 between the Cowboys and Lions). I have no doubt in my mind that Purdy absolutely smashes this spot and we have a very, very valuable line at 257.5 passing yards for him. To reiterate what I mentioned last week about Purdy, he has been fantastic since Week 7. From Week 7 through Week 17, Purdy averaged the 3rd most passing yards (288) and 3rd most passing TDs (2.1) per game while having the highest yards per attempt (10.3) over that span. In these games Purdy only had one game where he had less than seven yards per attempt. Over that ten game span, Purdy had at least a 9 yards per attempt or higher in seven and 11 yards or higher in five of them. Last week against the Packers, Purdy had to play in the rain. I should have been more mindful of this as he has a bad history in the rain but I chalked it up as a fluke rather than being a Purdy specific issue. Purdy ended up having one of his worst games of the season, throwing for only 252 yards on 39 attempts while having the Packers drop multiple interceptions, some of them which would have been returned for a TD. Purdy ended up having no turnovers and he pushed through to a victory. Luckily for us, the weather looks great this Sunday for this matchup. I’m firing up Purdy and as the week progresses, I’m going to keep an eye on making the Purdy “unofficial” play ladder below into an actual play. This will happen if I continue to grow more and more confident that the Lions can pull off the upset, which I am leaning towards them being able to do.

To expand on the Purdy section, I hope Deebo Samuel is active. I say that not because I want to be in on Deebo, but because I want him to pull attraction from the defense and open it up even more for the players I truly want to target regardless. Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are going to absolutely eat in this game. Now, this is a Kyle Shanahan offense. Any player can catch a long TD pass at any moment, this includes players like Juwan Jennings and Ray-Ray McCloud or even Deebo Samuel (of course) if he is active. However, Aiyuk and Kittle possess the best matchups of this group. I’ve spoken extensively about this group these last couple weeks and they have been a money printing machine for us and we have another shot at it here in the NFC Championship. Since Week 16, WRs have averaged a whopping 274 receiving yards per game against the Lions. On top of the WRs I mentioned in last week’s article, Mike Evans kept up the opposing team’s perimeter WR1 going on an absolute smash fest. Mike Evans ended up catching eight balls for 147 yards and a score. He even left production on the field with multiple drops and being tackled at the 2 yard line right before half. They have now allowed at least 140 receiving yards to a WR in each of their last five games and Aiyuk is up next. They haven’t fared much better against the TE spot, giving up the 7th most receiving yards (72) to the TE spot since Week 16. Over those five games, three of the opposing TEs have topped 58 receiving yards. TJ Hockenson caught four balls for 58 yards in Week 16, Johnny Mundt caught five balls for 58 yards in Week 18 and Cade Otton caught five balls for 65 yards and a score last week. Up next is George Kittle who is set up for immense success in this game and I fully expect him to have multiple big chunk catches. I’m max betting both Aiyuk and Kittle as well as laddering them. If I had to pick a favorite, it would be Aiyuk. Aiyuk is my favorite raw play to ladder between these two games. 

Christian McCaffrey has been his same ole self on the ground and he came out of last week with another solid performance. He was unable to find a ton of space, only getting to 98 yards on 17 carries but he got in the endzone twice. Oddly enough for CMC his volume hasn’t necessarily been there on the ground this year. His rushing attempts line is set at 18.5 rushing attempts in this game. CMC has only topped that mark twice since Week 5 and hasn’t exceeded 18 rushing attempts since Week 12. With the 49ers coming into this game as 7-point favorites, there is no doubting McCaffrey’s talent so I get why the line is so high. However, I’m not betting against the Lions rushing defense. It has served me right so far this season and I’m not stopping now. The Lions have yet to let a single RB get to 70 rushing yards on them this season in a game and allowing only 61 rushing yards per game to opposing backs. This is the best mark in the NFL and as I mentioned last week, it is backed by the Lions having the top rush DVOA in the NFL. In the air against opposing RBs, matchup typically doesn’t matter for McCaffrey but this one is a tough one as well. The Lions allowed the 3rd fewest receptions (3.5) per game to opposing backs but that comes with a 9 yards per route run which is the 2nd highest in the NFL. If you want pure action, receiving yards is where I would go with CMC but I’m not personally betting on it. I’m not betting against CMC but I’m also not betting against this Lions rush defense. Per usual, I’m sticking to the air game and I’ll have enough units on Purdy, Aiyuk, and Kittle to make up for that. 

Takeaway

The Lions can win this game. If they can establish a consistent ground game and put up points while consistently ripping off chunk runs, the 49ers will be on their heels. Will they pull it off? Unlikely but I know one thing, points will be scored. This is the best offense the Lions have faced outside of the Rams since Week 7 against the Ravens. The Lions will need to score 30+ to have a shot but I think at the end of the game, the 49ers offense will just be too much for the Lions to handle. Don’t be shocked if this game ends on a Jared Goff mistake late in the game.

Unofficial Bets

KC @ BAL

• Justice Hill o31.5 Rushing Yards (-114) – Fanduel

DET @ SF

• Jahmyr Gibbs o45.5 Rushing Yards (-114) – Fanduel
• David Montgomery o45.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – Draftkings 
• David Montgomery 1+ TD (+155) – Fanduel
• David Montgomery 2+ TD (+1100) – Fanduel
• Sam LaPorta o4.5 Receptions (-135) – MGM