The line is suspicious on the Twins/Tigers game. For a matchup that’s had seven or more runs in eleven of twelve games, and gone over seven in nine of those matchups, a total of 7 -160 with two starters averaging over five runs per game is a red flag. The money is coming in on the Tigers, but the percentage of bets is coming in on the Twins. I will wait and see what happens in this game in the first two innings. I want to get on the Twins’ side of things and Montero’s performance earlier in the year in Minnesota may be why the line is pushed down. I like the Twins to rebound today especially with Montero getting hit for four or more runs in four of his six starts this season. With the team total being 3.5 -185 I am going to hit it after the first inning for a cheaper price and then hit it again later for more.
Jackson Merrill will be making his first start tonight in his home city as the Padres are heading into Baltimore. I expect Merrill to be aggressive and put on a bit of a show for his hometown fans. If he gets on base I expect him to run, and it has been some time since he’s put one out. I’ll be staying away from the Padres as a whole with Grayson Rodriguez on the mound for the O’s and once the O’s team total drops to 3.5 I will be hammering it live against Adam Muzir.
I love playing Texas in Toronto and will be making the biggest play on the day on them. I will also be laddering the total slightly and hitting it live. The game should see a lot of runs with Kikuchi and Heaney on the mound so I will splash the game over as well in case Texas lays flat and Toronto’s offense surprisingly does damage.
Official Plays:
- Jackson Merrill (SD) Home Run +825: .5u
- Jackson Merrill (SD) Stolen Base +625: .5u
- Corey Seager (TEX) Home Run +460: .5u
- Jonah Heim (TEX) Home Run +600: .5u
- Robbie Grossman (TEX) Home Run +750
- Texas Rangers Team Total over 3.5 -130: 5u
- Texas Rangers Team Total over 4.5 +125: 3u
- Texas Rangers Team Total over 5.5 +210: 2u
- Rafael Devers Home Run +575: .5u
- Rafael Devers Stolen Base +1400: .5u
LIVE TARGETS:
- Twins Team Total over 3.5 -125: 2u
- Orioles Team Total over 3.5: 3u
Home Run Prop Shop Odds here: https://gameflows.com/mlb-prop-odds/
