We start tonight’s slate with the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning. One constant we have had is my willingness to target Justus Annunen, who will be in net for the Avs tonight. You would expect this game to be a high scoring game and the over would be the target, and it can be if you want an additional play. For me, Andrei Vasilevskiy is still the goalie I want in game 7 of the Cup Finals. Vas has already limited the Avs to two goals on their home ice on October 30th this year. The Avs have only scored more than four goals once in their past nine meetings against the Lightning. Vasilevskiy is touting a 6-2-1 record at home this season with a 1.36 GAA. While the over in this game may very well hit, the Lightning’s team total over 2.5 and 3 are what I will be targeting with Annunen in net. The 2.5 team total for the Lightning is -200 right now which means if Tampa doesn’t score too early into the game we will be able to grab it in the -150 range. I will grab the team total of 3 -125 for two units pregame incase the Lightning do net that early goal, but will add more if they don’t.
The New York Rangers have been held to two goals in three of the past four games. Before that, the Rangers scored 3 or more goals in 10 of 14 games. A four game Western Conference road trip will do that to teams. Chris Kreider and Filip Chytil are out for the Rangers and the Blues just hired Jim Montgomery after he was let go by the Bruins. The Blues were in need of a culture change and they will get it with Montgomery. The last time the Blues changed head coaches mid season of significance, they went on to win the Cup as a 50:1 dog. Igor Shesterkin is 8-5-1 with a 2.82 GAA this season which has gone up after giving up 16 goals in four games over his last five. I find value in the Blues tonight so my play will be strictly based on Kreider and Chytll being out, the Rangers traveling back home after a long Western Conference travel, and Montgomery coming in behind the bench for the Blues.
The Capitals are a full send sell for me with Alex Ovechkin on IR. They’ve lost their last two games scoring a total of three goals against the Devils and Avalanche. Florida on the other hand has lost five of six games with their offense being hit or miss over that span. Sergei Bobrovsky has lost his last two giving up 10 total goals so he gets the night off for Spencer Knight. That alone is enough for me to lay off the -175 money line but this should be a game the Panthers offenses gets back on track and runs wild against Logan Thompson who is 1-1 against them with a 3.50 GAA average. The season stats for the Capitals (4.05 GF / 2.75 GAA) should be why the Panthers team total is suppressed and why we’re able to get the total of 3, we will just have to pay for it and I am. This will be my biggest play of the night and a mini ladder.
The books keep downplaying Vegas and as I’ve said in many other articles, we will keep attacking. If Sam Ersson was in net I would not be making a play this big but with in net I am making a play as big as the Panthers. We are all in on two plays tonight. Scale the units down if you need to but these are the two biggest mismatches I see on the board. With only two games Tuesday and no games Thursday, we will have essentially two days off this week and why I am going so big tonight. Having both totals on a flat number giving us the possibility for the push is another. Vegas is averaging 3.86 goals per game. Fedotov is 3-4 with a 3.69 GAA and that number should go up even more after tonight. Fedotov’s best starts game against the Lightning and Sabres giving up a total of three goals, but has given up 4 or more in his five other starts.
Nashville has won 9 of their last 10 against the Devils, so as bad as they have been not only this season, but to us, this was always a matchup I targeted for Nashville. If you want to get cute and play them you may, but the Devils are the side I would be on.
Spencer Martin is always a target especially with how much I love the Stars. This is a powerhouse matchup with two teams we have played to win the Cup over the past few seasons. The goalie matchup is the only reason I am willing to make a play on it tonight, but it would be live when the Stars team total of 2.5 gets down to -140. Dallas has had trouble in these matchups over the years establishing that next level of play against top teams but I am confident in them tonight. It’s not a game I will regret missing out on so unless the 2.5 total drops live then it’s a pass for me.
I will gage the 10 pm games after these work their way through the second periods and we know where we stand.
For NFL I will be watching and rooting for the Ravens. My personal plays will be on Lamar rushing so I am doing a mini ladder on his yards.
Official Plays:
- 7 pm Tampa Bay Lightning team total over 3 -125: 2u
- 7 pm St. Louis ML +175: 1u
- 7 pm St. Louis Team Total over 2.5 -110: 1u
- 7 pm Florida Panthers Team total over 3 -160: 10u
- 7 pm Florida Panthers Team Total over 4.5 +220: 2u
- 7 pm Devils Team Total over 3 -140: 1u
- Lamar Jackson (BAL) 70+ rushing yards +230: .5u
- Lamar Jackson (BAL) 80+ rushing yards +350: .5u
- Lamar Jackson (BAL) 90+ rushing yards +500: .5u
- Lamar Jackson (BAL) 100+ rushing yards +750: .5u
- Lamar Jackson (BAL) 110+ rushing yards +1100: .5u
