Anaheim vs Buffalo

• Anaheim did themselves a real disservice coming back from down 3-0 against Columbus. This year is the Connor Bedard sweepstakes and Anaheim took a 4 point swing against one of the teams they’re competing with for the 1st overall pick. Instead of being 1 point below Columbus for the lowest point total in the league, they leapfrogged not only COlumbus but Chicago too. 
• Anaheim has won 13 games on the year (they’ve played 46) and head into BUffalo against an offense that was leading the league in goal scoring for majority of the season. 
• Buffalo has fallen on hard times as of late winning only two of the last seven. Those two wins are against Nashville and the Islanders who are having identity issues of their own. 
• Being a -265 favorite, we can eliminate Buffalo on the ML straight. This team is not worth laying -265 straight so we would need to look to parlay it with someone else. Am I sold that this team is a -265 favorite tomorrow? Yes, if Buffalo shows up at their peak they could be a -300 favorite offensively. Defensively is where they are the problem. Here are the teams scoring 3.5 goals per game or more: New Jersey 3.51 G/PG (62 pts/2nd in Metro), Tampa Bay 3.61 G/PG (59 pts/3rd in Atlantic), Seattle 3.61 G/PG (58 pts/1st in Pacific), Edmonton 3.70 G/PG (55 pts/ 4th in PAcific), and Boston 3.80 G/PG (76 pts/1st in Atlantic). Take a look at where each of those teams lie in their division, and now look at Buffalo: 3.75 G/PG, second most in the league, sitting 5th in the division with only 47 points. Why? Because they can’t keep the puck out of the net. Buffalo’s goaltending ranks 9th in the league giving up 3.75 goals a game. 
• The good thing for Buffalo is that ANaehim is dead last in the league in the same categories. ANaheim is giving up 4.15 goals against per game as a whole and John GIbson is having the worst year of his career. This Anaheim organization owes him and they owe it to him to ride out their rebuild if they are able to land Connor Bedard. If not then he should be traded to a contender because at his peak, Gibson is a very good goalie. 
• This game comes down to Buffalo and Buffalo alone. I didn’t like how Buffalo had looked in their recent games before their matchup with the Isles but I expected that game to be a breakout for both teams offensively, hence the max bet on the over. What really happened was we saw both offenses get shut down by two great goaltending showings, with Ilya Sorokin having an incredible game. While the over did not hit in that game, Buffalo has many opportunities and even squandered a few goals on their own mishaps. BUffalo should be able to carry that momentum into today’s game offensively. Defensively, Anaheim should score. Even though Anaheim is the lowest scoring team in the league barely averaging over 2.5 goals per game, they have the skill to be able to keep the scoring going. This game could be a potential ladder game seeing 8-9 goals in it with Buffalo winning a 6-3 type game. THe problem is, we ourselves are coming off 3 Max bet losses. I did not want to make a play on this game before writing but everything on paper says this should be a smash for the over. 

Tampa Bay vs Calgary:

• Tampa Bay is playing like the Tampa Bay of this previous three cup runs. Their scoring has improved and they’re separating themselves from Florida and the rest of the division establishing themselves as the top 3 team in the Atlantic they’re accustomed to. 
• Calgary on the other hand is still trying to figure out who they are. They’ve lost two in a row and have won three in a row once since the start of the season. 
• With Jacob Markstrom in net I like Tampa Bay’s chances. Tampa has already gotten through Calgary with a 4-1 win in November, and I see this Tampa team and being much superior to their play back when they first met. For Calgary to win this game, they should need to put up 4+. I don’t think that happens. This game is severely mispriced in my opinion. I don’t think this is a trap game, I think this game is just severely mispriced.
• Tampa Bay’s team total of 2.5 is being offered at -165 on MGM. This to me is a steal. Vegas is telling me that Calgary is going to win this game 3-1 / 4-1. I see this being the opposite. Regardless of who is in net for Tampa bay, I don’t see why they expect Markstrom to shut Tampa Bay down. In 12 starts Markstrom has held them to 1 goal twice and two goals or less three times.  It’s me vs the books this game as I will be making a play on Tampa Bay’s team total. If you want to get cute, under 1.5 is +290. 

MInnesota vs Florida

• WHen these two play, there’s goals, and lots of them. In the past 10 matchups alone dating back to 2016, these two have had 6 goals or more in all 10 of them. They don’t see each other much since they’re out of conference (twice a season compared to the 4+ a year inter conference teams do, but when they do they play exciting high scoring games. If you’re playing this game, play the trend alone on the over. It’s a matchup we made money on last year (5 units on FLorida tt, the game over, and florida tt live +250), so if you play this long term, you have money to spend to play the over again here. 
• Outside of that, Minnesota should be the better team here. 

Detroit vs Philadelphia:

• We’re getting back to the regular Carter Hart and it’s unfortunate. This kid has had the potential to be a top goalie in the league and it’s just not there. He starts out playing well, playing elite, and as the season goes on he begins to fall apart. Carter Hart was being talked about as the MVP in the first month of the season, but is sporting a 3.29 GAA the past two months. 
• Philly is playing well and has won 8 of their last 11. Detroit should be playing better than they are but they’ve lost three of four and six of the past nine. Neither of these teams are good, or will be anywhere near the playoffs, but overall, Detroit should finish much better than Philly. RIght now however, in this time, Philly is playing well enough to win this specific matchup. Detroit has won the last three meetings between these two putting up a hefty minimum of four goals in each one. 
• On a one off day, one off matchup, I lean Philly here. I, however, do not plan to touch it.