Good afternoon everyone,
We have some early games today and I will play the first one. Sunday got off to a rocky start, with Texas and Cleveland blowing the games in the 9th with a lack of control. We had a nice end to the night, getting six units back with the Dodger’s comeback win. I apologize for losing track of time and will do a better job getting the article/plays posted earlier next time. I will put those units back in play on Atlanta and lay some juice on it with the month we’ve had. The -1.5 line is -200, and being that they’re on the road and will get all nine at-bats has me more inclined to play this line. I will also play their total since they should run away with this game. We will likely be hitting this whole series.
I will update the article shortly with the additional plays and get the NHL article out.
At 4 pm, I will be looking to Washington and Pittsburgh. Marco Gonzales is not a dangerous pitcher. He is predominantly a fastball pitcher but also gives up a lot of ground balls. Gonzales missed the majority of the 2023 season with a nerve issue in his pitching forearm. He also does not fare well in his first starts of the year, giving up four or more runs in every start since 2019. The Pirates are coming off a four-game sweep of the Marlins where they scored six or more runs in all four games. The total comes in at 8.5 pregame, which is low, so getting the alt-line of 7.5 makes this game very enticing. Current Pirates are only 2-16 against MacKenzie Gore which should be buying the totals down as well. I like This game to go over and I like each team’s total of 3.5 but I will just be sticking to the game total.
Michael Wacha is a gas can and I am not buying into his numbers in Boston and San Diego. I don’t believe at 30 years old Wacha suddenly figured himself out. Baltimore at home should rebound from their loss yesterday. Their team total of 3.5 is enticing but I’m not looking to lay -175 on it. Dean Kremer has settled in over these past two seasons but I’m not entirely sold that he will be a mainstay in the Orioles rotation. Kremer to me is someone who’s bound to start getting hit more often and why I don’t trust him on the money line today. While I don’t want to lay the -175 on the 3.5 total I do believe it is the best play. BVP is an interesting debate amongst people and the relevance and importance it has. I believe there are instances where the sample size and history matters and others where it’s inflated and overanalyzed. In 78 plate appearances from Santander, Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle, and Urias have 31 hits and 8 homeruns. I am not going to start playing any props here but it gives me more incentive to lay the juice on a team total of only 3.5. Baltimore dominated their series with the Royals last year and in four of the last seven meetings between them the O’s have put up 10 ore more. I’m going to slam the 3.5 total here and splash a little on the heavy plus money totals thinking this is a high scoring game. The goal here is to net a 3u profit minimum when we hit the 3.5 so I will be putting 5 units on that play and allocating two of those units on the others.
This Phils didn’t see Andrew Abbott last season and he had a good rookie year after coming up. Philly had a tough opening series facing the Braves but I am very high on them this year. The goal here is to get to Abbott early for 2-3 runs by making him work. The Phils total should be 4.5 or 3.5 should be in the -190 range. I am playing it since we are getting it at -160 with a full lineup confirmed to start.
Official Plays:
- 2:10pm Atlanta Braves -1.5 -200: 2u
- 2:10pm Atlanta Braves Team Total over 5.5 -125: 3u
- 4:05pm Pittsburgh/Washington over 7.5 -150: 3u
- 6:35pm Baltimore Team Total over 3.5 -175: 5u
- 6:35pm Baltimore Team Total over 5.5 +165: .75u
- 6:35pm Baltimore Team Total over 8.5 +575: .75u
- 6:35pm Baltimore Team Total over 9.5 +775: .5u
- 6:40pm Philadelphia Team Total over 3.5 -160: 3u
- 9:40pm Yankees/Diamondbacks over 9 -155: 2u
