Monday MLB Pregame Plays 4/15

Nightghost

April 15, 2024
4:42 pm

I will start the day in Baltimore with Cole Irvin on the mound against the Twins. The Twins’ offense is in the bottom five in the league right now and is struggling to reach four runs even in its wins. Cole Irvin has pitched very well in his three starts against them averaging six innings per game with a 1.50 ERA. Jackson Holliday continues to hit ninth, which I will continue to say is a mistake, but if he can start getting on base more, he’ll work out as a second leadoff spot for the top of that order. This will be the first time Varland faces the Orioles and the first time anyone in the Orioles lineup sees him. I mentioned in previous articles why I like laying juice on team totals and 3.5 is too low for the Orioles here. I will be playing them on the money line and the team total. The Orioles bullpen should be better rested coming into this game as well. If the Orioles have the lead after the sixth, you can just hedge your money line play, but I see the Orioles taking this win with four or more runs being scored.

The Phillies have to score five runs sooner or later right? Right?? RIGHT? I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a home run prop as low as +170, albeit I don’t play them often, almost never in the past, but still, +170 for Schwarber to homer? Granted, he’s 3-11 with three home runs against Quantrill, but there’s no value in that. Schwarber’s over 1.5 total bases is -110, and there is better value in that, given we’ll get at least three to five at-bats for him to get one extra-base hit. I can’t stop playing the Phillies. I know I’m sick, but at least this play will give me the exposure I want while increasing our chances of hitting. Not for nothing. Most of the times we’ve been on the Phils, we have had ample opportunities, but they are hitting .252 with runners in scoring position and can’t get runners in from third with zero or one out.

Texas comes in as the underdogs to the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers arguably have had the easiest schedule in the league to start the season (White Sox, Mets, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Minnesota), but the Rangers lineup is why the lines are the way they are. Corey Seager, Josh Jung, and Wyatt Langford are all out for the Rangers and Michael Lorenzen is on the mound. The weather is nice at 70 degrees with 10 MPH winds blowing out. I will go against the expectations and play the over in this game at 7.5. Michael Lorenzen is a gas can no matter what anyone tells you about him and I trust the Rangers lineup enough to contribute to the over even without the three I mentioned. You can fully fade this game if you don’t trust my logic here.

Official Plays: