7/1 MLB Breakdown

We have a very limited three-game slate tonight but we will have some action. I am going to be making some changes this week to articles and units to try and gage the value of each play. Using dollar amounts for me will do more to help differentiate how plays and props should be made. We have a lot of ground to make up and as I’ve mentioned in the past, all of the yearly members will have access extended whether you want to be here or not, so keep notifications on, read the articles, and when plays start hitting consistently jump back on. The NHL Draft was this week so I will be starting a ‘24-’25 season/betting preview guide for each team as well as starting the NFL prep for the upcoming season. Whether you are happy or not with my results over the past 6 months, Sanaynay’s content is an absolute must. Subscribe to fantasy football and use his draft guide this offseason. 

Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays: 3:07 pm EST

Yariel Rodriguez has not pitched more than four innings this season giving up tree runs or less in his first four appearances. Those appearances came against the Royals twice and Colorado Rockies where he gave up two runs or less in those three appearances. When facing better lineups San Diego he gave up six hits and three runs and four earned (five total) against the Indians on two hits and three walks in only 1 1/3 innings. After a shaky start to the season the Astros have won 9 of their last 10 and teir last five series notably sweeping the Orioles and taking two of three against the surging Mets. The Astros offense has scored five or more runs in eight of their last nine. In the Astros last fifteen wins against the Blue Jays since 2019 their offense has scored five or more runs in fourteen of them. In the Astros last 14 losses to the Blue Jays, they’ve scored two or less runs in 11 of them, but held the Blue Jays to three runs or less in eight of those 14 wins. 

Hunter Brown has pitched very well for Houston over the past two months giving up more than three runs  once while going six innings or more in his last seven starts and a minimum of five in his last nine starts. Toronto’s offense is the six lowest scoring team in the league but have been hot in their last two series with the Red Sox and Yankees. Brown should limit the Jays to three runs or less over five innings.

The lines and expectations favor Houston here but I don’t like their performances against the Jays over the years and were swept in their last series in Toronto last June.

I expect The Astros to get to Rodriguez and this game to have some runs. Over 8 is -130 ad this is the only game of this series I would expect to go over the total with Houston being the prime contributor.

New York Mets @ Washington Nationals 6:45 pm EST

The lines don’t add up for this game. The Mets team total is only 3.5 but they’ve eclipsed that in seven of their last eight meetings and twice with MacKenzie Gore on the mound. The Mets have been one of the hottest teams in the league. 89% of the money has come in on the Mets but the line hasn’t moved. With only three games on tap tonight I’m going to keep it light.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies 8:40 pm EST

I would love to smash the Brewers here but playing team totals of 5.5 at -140 is a lot. Milwaukee has limited experience against Austin Gomber. Milwaukee is the chalk play in Coors but I think there’s some value in Colorado. The wind will be blowing out tomorrow in a stadium that doesn’t need it.

Author: Nightghost