Monday’s 3/4 Breakdown

Nightghost

March 4, 2024
1:06 pm

Good Afternoon everyone,

It was a very nice sides/total sweep yesterday to make up for the last two days. The only two plays we did not hit were Malkin’s 2+ and 3+ goals. There are six games on the slate for tonight. Starting at 7pm, the reeling Golden Knights head into Columbus. Vegas has lost seven of their last nine and are dealing with significant injuries to Jack Eichel and Mark Stone. Let’s talk about the trade deadline. Mark Stone’s injury will keep him out of the rest of the regular season and it’s possible he will miss the entire playoffs. Vegas is allowed to put Stone on the LTIR (long term injured reserve) freeing up his cap space for the trade deadline. Expect Vegas to try and make a big move on Friday when the deadline arrives. Vegas needs a win tonight if they want to stay ahead of the wild card chase as the Kings are only a point behind them now for the third spot in the division. I plan on going back to their total tonight. A matchup against Columbus is what this team needs to get back on track. Daniil Tarasov is in net for the Jackets and is 4-8 with a 3.62 GAA. William Karlsson and Jonathan Marchessault need to step up tonight and take control of this game. I’m expecting it to happen.

There have been six or more goals between the Panthers and Rangers in their last seventeen meetings. We have a decision to make here. The line opened at over 6 +105 or 5.5 -130. The line is baiting us to hammer the over based on the history. Igor is confirmed in net for the Rangers, and Sergei Bobrovsky is expected for the Panthers. Something is telling me to lay off. If this game has some goals early I don’t expect it to hit above the 8/9 mark so playing it live is out for me as well. Florida likes to grind you out and play a physical game. The Rangers are a team that can get bumped off their game and rattled. I would rather be wrong and miss out on a win, then force a play I am not buying into and lose. I am fading here.

Boston and Toronto is a major rivalry and a big game for Toronto if they can win in regulation. Toronto still has a chance to win the division and Auston Matthews is soaring right now. Boston has won the past five games and is coming off a bad loss to the Islanders. Matthews has 21 points in 17 games against the Bruins. I like Toronto to win here and don’t hate anyone who wants to play them. The reason why I am not playing them is because I want to lay into the later games. I don’t find a big enough edge but I do really like it.

Colorado gets the Hawks again tonight but at home. This game is tough line wise with their 3.5 total being -210. The Avs won the last matchup 5-0 with the shutout crushing out 5.5 total. Even the -1.5 line is -175 making this game very difficult to play price wise. Seeing lines here puts me on the Leafs more. Colorado should rake against the Hawks again so I am going to sit on this live and try and get the 3.5 total cheaper. Putting up five again is not out of the question, but getting 3.5 instead of 4 is a major difference. Nathan MacKinnon is head to head with Auston Matthews for the Hart trophy so I expect a lot out of him and Cale Makar tonight.

Philly gets the Blues at home tonight. Philly has lost five of their last eight and are without Travis Konecny again. I normally would like the over in this game but I am not confident in either offense tonight. I may look at this game live and jump on it if we can get it down to 4.5. I expect the goaltenders to play above par.

Calgary has won their last five putting up three plus in each. Seattle has struggled to score. I’m expecting something to give tonight and Seattle to have a breakout game. The Flames have won eight of the last ten against them with Seattle shutting them down last game in a 2-1 win. I expect a lot of open ice and a lot of scoring opportunities. Jacob Markstrom is a big trade deadline target and I worry about him in this matchup. The Flames came back from a two goal deficit against the Pens in the third period Saturday night and I see the winning streak ending.

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