Last week was a great rebound week to last Thursday and Saturday’s debacles. We’re back on track after having a monster Saturday and a very good rest of the week. The Texas Rangers cashed our +1000 future or series bets, and we hit our sides and totals well this playoffs. Total MLB units for the year are being calculated and will be updated shortly. As of 10/25 we were up 72.63 on the year. Monday will be a light night being that Tuesday is a great slate. Please keep in mind, I do not like to play every single day. You need breaks once in a while. Please don’t be afraid to tag me and ask questions, or get my thoughts on any game or play you have. You all pay to be here, so if I’m not in chat and you want to talk about anything, just tag me and I will be.
Columbus vs. Florida
Columbus has been very frustrating this season so far. For context, they put up four on Tampa Bay, but only scored one against the Capitals. Florida has been no better. These two teams can’t find consistency in their game. Florida has been without Sam Bennett and Aaron Ekblad, affecting Florida a lot more than Patrick Laine being out for Columbus has. I was down on the Panthers last year after trading Huberdeau and Weegar. I believed losing Huberdeau and Weegar would hurt them a lot more than adding Matthew Tkachuk. The Panthers were one piece away from winning the Cup before that trade in my opinion. Adding that piece would have been cheap. The Panthers were a team built for a Championship and a run for years to come, but they lacked leadership. After getting swept by Tampa Bay in 2022, a change was made. Bill Zito decided to ship his superstar forward and a top D man out to Calgary instead of adding a seasoned vet who’s been to the dance before. I did not believe Tkachuk was what would get the job done. Was I wrong? You tell me. The Florida Panthers’ run to the Cup last year was a fluke. Here’s the difference. While the trade got the Panthers to the Cup in their first year, they’ll never win, let alone get back there. The Panthers barely made the wild card last year, securing it on the last day of the season after Pittsburgh lost to Columbus and Chicago to miss the playoffs. The year before, the Panthers won the President Trophy. Huberdeau made them a contender. Tkachuk makes them a one hit wonder. Where’s that leave us now?
Elvis Merzlikins has had a rebound year for Columbus, not great, but he’s rebounded. Against Florida, he holds a 3-6-1 record with a 3.58 GAA. Florida has the edge here and the books know it. Florida will be looking to rebound after a 5-2 embarrassing loss to the Blackhawks, and the Blue Jackets are the team to do it against. Columbus is giving up four goals a game this year with Florida averaging 3.5. Columbus has had two high scoring games offensively, but neither of the goaltenders they faced have the elite level of play that Sergei Bobrovsky can put on. The best goaltender the Blue Jackets faced was against Jake Oettinger in Dallas where they managed to put three goals on him, but they still lost. Even if Columbus gets Bobrovsky on a bad game, they still give up at least four themselves. We’re putting a lot of faith in Florida tonight, but this is a game I see it happening.
Tampa Bay vs. Toronto
Toronto has lost four in a row and are just not a team I want to touch right now. I don’t think either team is playing well enough offensively to jump on this over. Could it hit? Sure, but I don’t see this game being a consistently high scoring game. I see this as a 4-3 type game or worse. If I’m wrong, I’m fine with missing out on it because I believe this game is much more likely to go under than it is to go over. I don’t want to sweat this game. There’s no need. I like other spots more.
Boston vs. Dallas
I am hoping Boston gets embarrassed here. Boston continues to win because they are facing bad teams, and good teams on bad days. The Boston Bruins are not as good as their record depicts, and Dallas is the contender team I’d love to see on top of their game embarrass them. By mid season, Boston will be coasting as the number two team in the division because they are playing much weaker Eastern teams. If someone is going to dethrone Colorado in the division, and Vegas in the Conference Finals, my money is it being the Dallas Stars. Dallas needs to beat Boston in order to do that. This game is a tell for both teams on where they’re at. If Dallas plays as well as I believe they are, they should win this game 4-2 / 5-2, and if Boston wins, Dallas will know they’re not ready yet. The Dallas team total interests me a lot here. The books have this priced as a tight defensive battle with Dallas’ team total of 2.5 coming in at -190.The books know this game relies on which Dallas team shows up tonight. Boston will be good for two goals. What the score is at that point of the game will determine Boston getting a chance with or without the empty net. The books want you to play 2.5, because they know they don’t know what to expect. Dallas should win tonight, they are priced as favorites, but the line is low enough where if Boston wins, it won’t hurt them. This is a trap game where they want you to lay the juice. They’re asking you to lay the juice on the 2.5 total. I don’t want to. We don’t want to start the week off on a bad foot and that’s how tonight’s slate is trending. What I want to do is I want to play 3 here. There is too much of a chance that Dallas folds under the pressure tonight and Boston wins 3-2 / 2-1 / 3-1 than Dallas landing on exactly 3. I’d much rather save the juice here to risk the push, and play 3 at -125. I’d rather lose a -125 and push at 3 than lose a -190 to start the week.
Edmonton vs. Vancouver
We started the season betting on the Canucks over the Oilers in back to back games. We started the season very profitable on this matchup. This game is a trap. Edmonton has been playing horribly with one win in their last seven matchups. Edmonton should be in panic mode with their only win in that stretch being against the lowly Calgary Flames. If there’s a game for Edmonton to win, it’s against a Vancouver team who has won six of their last seven, and already beaten them twice. That’s the trap. That Vancouver should win tonight based on how these two teams are playing and they’re giving them to you as dogs to open the lines. Vancouver has now moved to being the favorite. The game is projected to go over, and the only way it doesn’t is if Vancouver doesn’t show up. If they do, they should score 4-5. Edmonton will score 2 minimum tonight, so they will do their half. Whether Edmonton gives up two or five will depend on Jack Campbell. If the game goes under, it’s because Vancouver failed to score. We will know early in the first period how this game is going to go and we will be able to jump on it live. Until then, I’m sitting back and keep this a light night
