Good Morning everyone,
We had a great night last night with all the live. The Av’s pregame washed out most of the Leafs pregame loss. Buffalo played well and they continue to play well defensively. The loss was unfortunate but one that was worth playing with the history we’ve had on it. The Leafs win in OT carries us right into tonight’s slate. The Bruins and Leafs rematch and I’m jumping on the Leafs team total of 2.5. They should have momentum on the road right now, and there are rumblings of some potential goaltender movement in Boston with the deadline looming. I’d be surprised and don’t know how valid the reports of the Bruins listening on Ullmark are but we will see. Swayman getting the start could be indicative of the Bruins preserving Ullmark from injury. I like how that bodes for Toronto. We all know how I feel about Jeremy Swayman so I am attacking him here for -145. Boston is coming off a late blown lead to the Oilers at home and I see that loss carrying over. Boston is in Vegas territory right now and don’t see the Bruins picking up a seventh straight win against the Leafs. The Leafs are nine points behind the Bruins right now but have three games in hand. This is a huge spot for Toronto to pick up some ground.
Carolina has won 15 of 17 against the Canadiens are are coming off a huge third period meltdown against the Jets. I can’t see Rod Brind’amour letting that loss go, and with Montreal coming off an OT win against Nashville on Tuesday night, the Hurricanes should come out with the intention of making a major statement. Carolina has scored four or more in seven of the last eight against Montreal. This would have been a 3+ unit play if the line was a little cheaper.
The lines are getting more expensive and I saved Carolina as only a two unit play so I can lay the juice and hammer this Edmonton line. The Oilers head into Columbus with Danill Tarasov slated to start. If we were willing to lay five units on Pittsburgh’s team total against the Jackets, imagine what I am going to expect Edmonton to do against them. MGM has been fucking us with the laddered team totals. They have been offering .5 and 1 goals for each team and limiting the higher payouts on five and six. Lock in 3.5 for -175 for five units and expect to die on this hill. Edmonton’s matchup with Columbus should be a brutal mismatch. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl should control this game up front. Any goal that Edmonton does give up should just help push Edmonton offensively. We will be looking at this game live like we did with Colorado last night.
Florida should win again tonight but I’m laying off. Philly has won the last three matchups and Florida has won six in a row and sixteen and eighteen. If Florida does win, I expect it to be a tighter lower scoring game. I don’t want to risk -140 for four goals and if you want to get real ballsy, play the under 6.5 or even 7. No play for me here.
The books are still treating the Devils like they are a top team in the league with a -175 money line and 3.5 team total. The Blues have won the last three matchups but have lost six of nine overall. The Blues should start to fall out of the wild card race over the next week or two and should sell some pieces by Friday. I like the Devils to get back in the win column and on the board often. Things have been rough for New Jersey. Lindy Ruff is gone and they followed it up with a loss to Florida giving up the first goal three minutes into the game. This team is frustrated and lost and you can see it when they play. Tough times hit hard. I’ve seen other rumblings that the Devils could move Tyler Toffoli at the deadline, but I hope not. A win tomorrow gets them back within six points of the wild card. The Devils need a goaltender. I don’t think Jacob Markstrom is the answer but the playoffs are not out of the question here. This is an absolute must win for the Devils and I believe they pull it off.
Calgary traded Noah Hanifan yesterday and continue to sell. If you want to play Tampa Bay to win, you can, I don’t hate it, but I don’t like the cross country out of conference matchup that this is. Calgary should struggle offensively and that could limit how Tampa Bay attacks this game. With Andrei Vasilevskiy in net it shouldn’t take much for Tampa to win. There are too many ways this game could go and it all depends on a Calgary team that continues to change their lineup. I am staying away to be cautious.
I would love to play the 5.5 total in Nashville, but it comes in at -200. I will look to hit this live. Nashville is coming off their loss to Montreal and Buffalo will be traveling on a back to back from Canada to Tennessee. Eric Comrie should start for the Sabres and should set up a win for the Preds. I believe the Western Conference playoffs are already decided. The only team I see having a chance on the outside is the Seattle Kraken, but they also just moved Alex Wennberg. Nashville should feel confident about their playoff chances and I do believe that motivates them even more to keep rolling. Buffalo is a low scoring low goals against team but Nashville should be able to dictate the pace of play. Nashville is a very physical team and lead the league in hits and should girnd this Buffalo team down physically and take control. This game should end in the 4-2 range for the Preds.
I am laying off the rest of the slate from here. I will be debating the Islanders for the late game, but THIS IS A GAME THEY ARE KNOWN TO GET CAUGHT. Repeat it with me, THIS IS A GAME THEY ARE KNOWN TO GET CAUGHT. I am playing a bit different tonight. If you can play on a book that allows you to parlay team totals then follow the official plays. Play Carolina and Nashville for two units each if you can’t. I will be looking to hit our Edmonton and New Jersey five and three unit plays early, and pad a big night with a round robin win. If not, we will walk away with what the results are, and I will be playing live.
Official Bets:
- 7:08pm Edmonton Oilers Team Total over 3.5 -175: 5u
- 7:08pm New Jersey Devils Team Total over 3.5 -125: 3u
- .5u Round Robin – 4×3 / 1×4
- Carolina Hurricanes Team Total over 3.5
- Toronto Maple Leafs Team Total over 2.5
- Nashville Predators Team Total over 3.5
- New Jersey Devils Team Total over 3.5
- 2.5 to win 11.552
If you cannot round Robin the team totals, you can parlay New Jersey, Edmonton, Carolina, and Minnesota ML’s as a round robin. I prefer to play the team totals straight instead.
