Friday March 9th, 2024 NHL Betting Breakdown
The NHL Trade Deadline is behind us and we have a full slate of games on tap today. We will recap last nights plays and break down each matchup for today.
-Nightghost
Last Night’s Recap:
The bad part of last night was the Detroit Red Wings. There was a reason why that line was -130 and we paid the ultimate price in a 4-0 shutout win for the Coyotes. Detroit looked terrible from the get-go and Alex Lyon had arguably his worst game of the season. Colorado really let us down as well. After scoring 42 seconds into the game I thought we were on track to bounce back from the Detroit losses. Colorado themselves didn’t score again until overtime for a 2-1 win. The Avs are a loss I can take. The matchup was a tight matchup like I thought we would see, but after getting the first goal so early I thought we would at least be sweating the empty net. Dallas was the lone bright spot on the night scoring three in the first and dominating the Ducks for a 6-2 win. We picked up three more units on the live team total to help recoup some of our earlier losses but it was still a disappointing night. We have a great slate today starting at 12:30pm and we are going to be attacking all three early favorites on the road.
Edmonton Oilers @ Buffalo Sabres
12:38pm EST
I can safely say that no matter how many times the Oilers burn us, they are still going to be a team we ride. This team is too potent offensively to fade. The Edmonton Oilers always look good. The struggle with Edmonton is the finish. We will always have the opportunities to win and hit out totals with this team regardless of how many goals they give up and lose by. McDavid and Draisaitl play too fast of a game for us to ever be out of a potential win. I expect Edmonton to control a faster pace of play against Buffalo than Toronto did and to see a higher scoring game than the 2-1 finish the Sabres had on Wednesday. This game should go more like Buffalo’s loss to the Predators with a little earlier of a cash for us than the Preds team total.
Nashville Predators @ Columbus Blue Jackets
12:38pm EST
The Preds made two nice splashes at the deadline adding Anthony Beauvillier and Jason Zucker. Beauvillier played for Barry Trotz with the Islanders and was rotting in Chicago after being moved there from Vancouver. Daniil Tarasov is in net again for the Jackets and I expect regression from the Jackets coming off a win over the Oilers. Nashville has been one of the hottest teams in the NHL right now winning nine of their last ten and have a prime matchup today to continue that. The Predators are pretty much locked into that top Wild Card spot for the rest of the season. I do not see them being able to catch Colorado, Winnipeg, or Dallas being ten points behind them, but also don’t see anyone behind them catching or gaining ground on them. The Preds should play a tight game from top to bottom today and we may look to hit this game live if they can get out to an early lead.
Carolina Hurricanes @ New Jersey Devils
12:38pm EST
The Hurricanes may be the winners of the deadline adding Evgeni Kuznetsov and Jake Guentzel. Guentzel may not be in the lineup today but the Hurricanes, who were already a top favorite in the league, made themselves even better. New Jersey on the other hand made very questionable moves. Vitek Vanecek was moved to the Sharks and Jake Allen was brought in. What this tells us is that the Devils will continue to look to add a goalie in the offseason and moving Vanecek and his contract out will make it easier. Jake Allen will be their number two next season and possibly the number one for the rest of this season. Nico Daws gets the start today however and that is a great thing for Carolina. Daws has given up three or more goals in six of his last eight starts with the Blues and Sharks being his two best performances over that span. Those two matchups are matchups he is supposed to win. The Devils also moved Tyler Toffoli out being he was an un-restricted free agent at the end of the year but I personally believe they were underpaid for him. I wouldn’t have let him go for anything less than a 1st, or two 2nd’s AT WORST. I believed the Devils still had a chance for a wild card spot up until last night. Carolina should roll through this team the way they did in ast years playoffs..
Updates:
If you think betting on the Oilers is lazy of me, you are more than capable of not making the play yourself. It’s insulting to think that making that play and taking the time to break down why the play is being made is lazy. If you do not think why I am making the play is a good enough reason to play them, then fade the play all you like, there is nothing wrong with that. What is lazy is that at the end of the overtime with less than 20 seconds left McDavid gets tackled in the offensive zone with no call, then him and Nurse cycle back on the misplay by Nurse leaving Owen Power to have an open lane to what we originally thought was the game winner. The Oilers scored 29 seconds in and were up 2-0 14 minutes in. Calling the play “lazy” is an interesting take. If anything here was “lazy,” it was not giving the Sabres defense the credit it has deserved as of late.
I’d like to clarify some questions and concerns regarding live plays. I am watching MGM lines all game. The plays that go out are in anticipation of lines and I am putting then out early for everyone’s benefit especially on the weekends. Putting them out early, even with the 7 minute delay (which I’m working on reducing, that’s a tech thing), 90% of live plays should be playable. It’s going to happen that a team scores as the play’s going out which happens regardless. It’s the same as its been the past five years. I know the Edmonton line that went out was -225. If you all prefer that I wait until it’s actually -160, then I’ll wait, but I don’t see how that benefits anyone, especially those playing on other books who may have a closer line already. If you see the line is -225 and I put out -160 I expect you all to know to hit the line when the line is in that range or a close enough line you are comfortable playing. All these issues seem to be coming from Butters himself. The Oilers are lazy, the line is -225 and not -160, and then Colorado 7.5 wasn’t good even though it wasn’t documented in the sheet, I knew it wasn’t good and put out 8.5, but then you don’t play 8.5 and wait for 7.5 again but still complained. You know I love you but this stuff needs to be known this many years into it.
For the rest of the day…
All live is going to continue to go out ahead of time. I cannot understand why that is a drawback give you anticipation of what to play but I can’t let that pull me off posting them after hearing how much you all miss live. The Oilers lost in a shootout but a Florida win will negate any round robin losses. We picked up a nice win with Carolina to limit the pregame Oilers team total to a .75u loss. The live was a bullshit loss but it happens and we will make that back later today. Nashville fucked up on the empty net to not push the three. If anyone watched the end of that game the Preds got way too cute passing the puck trying to give each other the goal. That was an unfortunate swing. Here are the 7pm plays:
Ottawa Senators @ San Jose Sharks
7:08pm EST
The Sens are in trouble right now losing six in a row. With Mackenzie Blackwood hurt and the newly acquired Vitek Vanecek on IR as well, the Sharks are down to Magnus Chrona in net. Chrona has played two full games for the Sharks this season but has appeared in four. He was last torched by the Isles for seven goals Thursday night and I don’t see it getting any better for him tonight. This is a game Brady Tkachuk needs to run point and run this game up for the Sens. I will be attacking this game many ways with props and totals. The Sharks move Tomas Hertl in an absolute shock move at the deadline. While he has been hurt, this lineup is completely depleted. It may get pretty ugly for them tonight so lets recoup our early losses here.
St. Louis Blues @ New York Rangers
7:08pm EST
The Rangers made two moves at the deadline that I wish lazy Lou Lamoriello would have made. Alex Wennberg and Jack Roslovic are two players I would love to have on any team. They are depth players that can and will contribute. Getting the Blues at home after losing three of their last four is a perfect get right game for them. The Rangers out skill the Blues in almost every facet, but not having Jake Trouba does take away a significant edge on the blueline for the Rangers, but this offense should run its course and put up four plus tonight. I am going to lay the juice here and you can wait for it to go live if you’d like to save twenty to thirty cents, but we want to get three always when possible. Do not worry about playing 3.5 instead of 3 if you prefer not to pay up. I expect the Rangers top line to hit on all cylinders and expect Mika to hit the score sheet for at least two points tonight.
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Montreal Canadiens
7:08pm EST
Losing two in a row to the Bruins is demoralizing for a Leafs team that had a chance to catch them in the standings this week. With Jake Allen gone, Sam Montembault will take over the goaltending duties full time. Montembault has played extremely well against the Leafs in the past giving up only two goals in four straight games against them for a 2-2 record. However, he was torched for seven in their last meeting on April 8th of last season. I expect the Leafs to get right tonight but will limit my exposure with Willy Nylander out. The line of 3.5 is only -135 so playing it for two units is safe.
- 12:38pm Edmonton Oilers Team Total over 3.5 -125: 3u
- 12:38pm Nashville Predators Team Total over 3 -185: 3u
- LIVE: Edmonton team total over 2.5 -160: 3u
- 12:38pm Carolina Hurricanes Team Total over 3 -155: 3u
- .5u Round Robin 4×3 1×4
- Edmonton Oilers
- Nashville Predators
- Carolina Hurricanes
- Florida Panthers
- 2.5 to win 9.869
- 7:08pm Ottawa Senators Team Total over 3.5 -155: 5u
- 7:08pm Brady Tkachuk over 3.5 shots -165 (DK): 3u
- 7:08pm Brady Tkachuk 2+ points +190: 1u
- 7:08pm Brady Tkachuk 3+ points +600: 2u
- 7:08pm New York Rangers Team Total over 3 -150 range: 3u
- 7:08pm Toronto Maple Leafs Team Total over 3.5 -135: 2u
- .5u Round Robin 4×3 1×4
- Ottawa Senators
- Washington Capitals
- New York Rangers
- Toronto Maple Leafs
- 2.5 to win 5.828 1.821 7.629
