Week 7 USFL Notes
Saturday (5/27 4:00pm)
BIRM @ NO (FOX)
The Stallions will get a chance at payback from the Week 3 thriller that had the Breakers take down the Stallions 45-31. The line for this game is currently sitting at 45.5 which is a little odd to me. The line should be up in the low 50s considering what we’ve seen from both of these teams. The Breakers offense has faltered a little bit the last two weeks, scoring only 10 points in each of the last two games but I think we’ve seen enough from both of these offenses to expect both to score 20+ at the minimum. The Stallions have scored at least 20 in every single game this year, averaging 27.83 PPG as a team while the Breakers are still averaging 24.17 as a team per game even with only 20 in their last two games. They’re no offensive injuries at the moment we need to be concerned with. The last time these two teams played Wes Hills dropped 191 rushing yards on them while MBT still threw for 283 yards. If you recall, we smashed the live over three times in this game and hit it all. I’ll be playing the pre game over and hoping to do the same if these offenses start off in sync.
Saturday (5/27 9:00pm)
PHI @ PIT (FS1)
I’m throwing Pittsburgh’s game last week out as an anomaly and more or less ignoring it. They couldn’t get anything generated at all and Memphis just dominated them from start to finish, 22-0. Prior to that game, Pittsburgh had scored at least 20 points in each of their last four games, winning two of their last three, including a 21-13 win over the Stars. Philadelphia on the other hand has not scored an offensive TD in over 10 quarters of football. Over the last two weeks they have kicked 11 FGs and had a pick six for all of their scores, resulting in both games being wins. They’re so close and they have to eventually fall in the endzone as they’ve had a few scores called back on very ticky tack calls. As I just mentioned, the final of this game in Week 3 was 21-13 with the Maulers taking down the Stars. The Stars were inside the Maulers redzone of this game with chances to win the game but couldn’t convert late. That game SHOULD have had 40+ but variance struck it. The over/under of 39 is attractive in this game so I’ll be going back to the well there.
Sunday (5/28 2:30pm)
HOU @ MEM (USA)
The last time these two teams played in Week 3, the Gamblers won on a late thriller over the Showboats, 30-26 as Kenji Bahar threw a TD with :13 left in the game to take the lead. These teams scored 36 points in the second half and 23 in the fourth quarter. Both teams have played very well since this game with both teams winning every game since this one. The Gamblers have won four in a row now after taking down the Generals 16-10 in Week 6, Stallions 27-20 in Week 5 and Stars 41-16 in Week 4. The Showboats took down the Maulers last week 22-0, Breakers 17-10 in Week 5 and the Panthers 29-10 in Week 4. Both of these defenses are playing very well which is why these teams are winning so I’m not expecting another 30-26 game unless it goes off the rails in the 2nd half like it did last time.
Sunday (5/28 5:30pm)
MICH @ NJ
This game is the complete opposite of the Gamblers and Showboats. In week 3 the Generals took down the Panthers 28-13 and both teams have lost every game since then. The Generals have only scored 48 points (16 PPG) since their 28-13 win and the Panthers have scored 46 points (11.5) over their last four games, losing 27-13 to the Stallions, 23-7 to the Maulers, and 29-10 to the Showboats. The Panthers are reeling and can’t seem to find a glimmer of hope. They just cut their top WR, Ishmael Hyman, and I’m not sure why. However, the Generals at least showed a little bit of life last week as they scored 10 4th quarter points against the Gamblers in their attempt to come back. Kyle Lauletta was finally showing some consistency with his WRs and they got into the endzone with 3:09 left in the game. With how back the Panthers have been playing and no offensive improvement in sight, I actually like the Generals -6.5 in this one.
Bets:
Saturday
BIRM/NO o45.5 (-110): 3u
PHI/PIT o39 (-110): 2u
Sunday
HOU/MEM u43.5 (-110): 1u
MEM ML (+140): 1u
MICH/NJ u40 (-110): 1u
NJ -6.5 (-110): 1u
Parlay
BIRM/NO o45.5, PHI/PIT o39, MEM ML, NJ ML (+1099): .25u
