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Sanaynay’s Super Bowl Breakdown

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles PHI -1.5, O/U 51

The Super Bowl is finally here. This matchup is between two very evenly matched teams. Because of this, the lines for the game itself are tight and priced properly. What we need to do is take a sit back approach and really enjoy this game for what it is, a spectacle of a game. There are a ton of opportunities to exploit some loose lines and we’ll find them below, but most importantly, don’t try to hit every single prop. You’ll drive yourself crazy and you won’t be able to enjoy the Super Bowl for the great game it will be between the league’s two best teams.

 

Mahomes has gone 51/73 passing for 521 yards and four scores without a pick and one lost fumble so far in the two playoff games that he’s played. Mahomes has done this with a high ankle sprain, an injury that should be getting close to healed by the time the Super Bowl comes around. Against the Bengals in the divisional round, Mahomes threw for 326 yards on 43 attempts and two scores. Mahomes was hobbled a little bit with his rushing as he only ran for eight yards with most of that coming on the final offensive play of the game to set the Chiefs up for a game winning field goal. With his ankle healing, Mahomes is going to be the centerpiece for all of the Chief’s offensive stats on Sunday. I think that both Mahomes passing yards of 290.5 and his rushing yards of 19.5 are soft lines for him and the over should be played. Mahomes has thrown for over 290 yards passing in three of his last five games with one of those games falling short being the sprained ankle game against the Jaguars. In that game Mahomes missed half of it (during his ankle injury) and only threw for 195 yards on one foot. Over his last five games he has thrown for a total of 404, 378, 275, 195 (JAX), and 326. The Eagles have only given up an average of 195 passing yards per game since Week 12 but that number is aided significantly after they didn’t face a QB last week against the 49ers. Outside of the Niners game that saw Brock Purdy get hurt on the first drive, they were averaging 214 yards against per game through the air. The Eagles defense is good, but Mahomes is better. On the ground, the Eagles have been butchered for the sixth (24 per game) most rushing yards from opposing QBs on the season. With Mahomes ankle still being viewed as an issue, his rushing line is suppressed a few yards down to 18.5. This is a very favorable line for a player who is likely to run the ball 4-6 times and have success against a soft defense for opposing QBs to run on. I also like Mahomes anytime TD at +550 and if you really want to get crazy, rushing in the 1st TD of the game at +2800 is something I’ll sprinkle a little bit on as well.

 

Like I mentioned above with Mahomes, the Eagles have a really good pass defense. Their perimeter CBs don’t get beat very often. Also, like I mentioned last week with Kyle Shanahan, Andy Reid is an elite offense mind and very well could see a weakness in their games that he will take advantage of throughout the game. Kyle Shanahan actually did do this on the exact play that Brock Purdy got hurt on. Purdy held on to the ball a split second too long but on that play, 49ers perimeter WR, Brandon Aiyuk, turned around Eagles perimeter CB, James Bradberry, on a post out route for what would have likely been a TD if Purdy had proper timing and got the ball out slightly before Aiyuk broke out of his route. The 49ers’ skilled position group is much, much more talented than the Chiefs as a whole but I do think that Andy Reid will scheme up something for his guys. From a betting perspective, there isn’t a ton of value from the Chiefs pass receiving group. I do like Travis Kelce’s yardage prop of 79.5 and I like Juju to top 34 receiving yards. As I mentioned last week, Kelce had topped 95 yards in each of his last seven playoff games before settling in at 78 last week on seven receptions against the Bengals. If the Eagles pass defense is weak somewhere, it is the middle of the field against the slot WR and TE positions. Kelce has also scored a TD in each of his last five playoff games with 13 total over the last four years in 11 games with Mahomes as his QB. His anytime TD prop is sitting at -125 and worth a stab if you want more exposure to Kelce. In regards to Juju, his receiving line is so low because he is battling injuries and he has been average at best the last month and a half. In Juju’s last four complete games (removing the AFC Championship where he got hurt), Juju never topped four targets or 35 receiving yards. He had games of 3-27, 2-21, 2-35, and 2-29. However, the best way to beat the Eagles is over the middle of the field and out of the slot. With a line of 37.5, I think Juju has a decent shot of topping that mark.

 

Where I really want to attack the props on this Chiefs offense is their rushing game. I think Isiah Pacheco presents a great option on the Super Bowl DFS showdown slate and his props overall. Pacheco took 39 snaps against the Bengals whereas McKinnon only saw 27. Pacheco only ran the ball ten times but that was because he was getting absolutely nowhere on the ground. The Bengals had a great game plan to stuff the Chiefs ground game and force Mahomes to pick them apart and try to collapse the pocket around and try to use his sprained ankle against him. With that, Andy Reid pivoted to utilizing Pacheco in the passing game, targeting him six times as Pacheco caught five of them for 59 receiving yards. The biggest weakness on this Eagles defense is their rush defense as they have the 21st rush DVOA and gave up a healthy 4.5 YPC to opposing backs throughout the season. Once the Chiefs start having success on the ground, I think they continue hammering away with Pacheco and Pacheco has the speed and burst to break away on any given carry. I like his over 11.5 rush attempts, longest rush over 13.5, and his 46.5 rushing yards prop. I will also be playing Pacheco over 15.5 receiving yards but slightly less than his rushing yards and taking his anytime TD at +140 and 1st TD at +900.

 

Jalen Hurts is set up to have himself a memorable Super Bowl. The Chiefs defense bleeds stats to opposing QBs, both in the air and on the ground. I want to attack Jalen Hurts specifically on the ground. To date, the Chiefs gave up the 3rd most rushing yards to opposing QBs at 26 yards per game. Last week, Joe Burrow’s rushing line was at 15.5 and we smashed the over as he ended up finishing with 30 on only four rushing attempts. Not only does Jalen Hurts take 10+ designed runs a game, he has elite scrambling abilities to make this Chiefs defense pay time and time again. Before getting hurt, Hurts was averaging over 11 rushing attempts per game, which included blow out wins where he just didn’t have the demand of running the ball. He had 15+ rushing attempts in six of the fourteen games he played before his shoulder injury. Since then, he has run the ball 9, 9, and 11 times over that three game span as they slowly ramp him up. Even last week, as the game got out of hand, the Eagles still ran Hurts as they know they are now in do or die territory. As I expect this game to stay close and Hurts to have success running it, I like both of Hurts rushing lines at over 49.5 rushing yards and 10.5 attempts. 

 

In the air, I think that Dallas Goedert presents the most favorable lines for the Eagles passing attack. We are at the point where one but likely not both of the Eagles WRs are going to hit their receiving props. Last week AJ Brown was pepper with targets, seeing four receptions for 28 yards in the 1st quarter alone before Jalen Hurts overthrew him on a shoe in 74 yard TD pass. After that? Goose egg. The game got out of hand and even Devonta Smith only saw three total targets on the day. The Chiefs are most vulnerable over the middle of the field. I’m likely not going to be playing any props for any of the Eagles receiving threats but if I do, it would be Dallas Goedert over 49.5 receiving yards slightly above his 4.5 receptions. My main focus here is on the ground with Hurts.

 

The Kansas City Chiefs have been a bit better against the run as of let, going from a team in the bottom third of the NFL defending it to being respectively in the middle of the pack. This Eagles rushing attack, however, is next level. They are the best rushing team in the NFL and just found consistent success against one of the best run defending teams in the NFL. I don’t think the Eagles have any issues running the ball here and one path you can take to get exposure is to play all three of the eagles RBs rushing props at the same amount across the board. Miles Sander is at 60.5 rushing yards and +120 for any time TD, Gainwell 18.5 rushing yards with +360 on any time TD, while Scott is 5.5 rushing and +500 any time TD. If you play all three of the backs, you are likely to hit at least two of them with the possibility of hitting all three. Scott only takes one to two runs to hit his prop and Gainwell only four to five and I expect Miles to shoulder the load to get over his line. If the Eagles pivot and get all three involved, you are sitting pretty with both Gainwell and Scott. This also helps if you are worried about Miles getting voltured at the goal line. This Philadelphia Eagles offensive line just pushed around the best defensive front in the NFL so even though the Chiefs’ have a great front four, I expect the Eagles to continue to have success. I’ll break down below how I will be playing the Eagles backfield in regards to units and which plays. 

 

I also want to mention Kenny Gainwell receiving the ball in this matchup. As I’ve mentioned the last two weeks, the Chiefs gave up the most receptions to opposing backs over the course of the season by surrendering 112. Against the Jaguars, the Chiefs surrendered four receptions for 25 yards on five targets to Etienne and Hasty while against the Bengals they surrendered six receptions for 19 yards on seven targets against the Bengals to Mixon and Perine. If you mix in those four backs mentioned with Kenny Gainwell, Gainwell is the best receiving back of the bunch. Yes, Etienne isn’t that good of a receiving back. I really like Gainwell to have at least two receptions and hit his over 10.5 receiving yards. If the Chiefs get up early and the Eagles do pass slightly more than expected, this opens the door for Gainwell even more so. Over his last six games, Gainwell has had two or more receptions in four of them with the only two he didn’t have that was against the Giants in Week 18 and the Giants again in the Divisional Round. Otherwise he has had reception counts of 2, 4, 2, and 2 with receiving yardage totals of 9, 41, 17, and 26 in those four games. This lines up as well because the Giants gave up the least amount of receptions to opposing backs throughout the entire season and the 2nd fewest receiving yards. On the flip side with Miles Sanders, over the last six games he has seen a total of three receptions on four targets, pulling in a total of -4 receiving yards due to a massive 13 yard loss against the Bears in Week 15. I think the receiving line for Gainwell is exploitable and I will be playing both his 1.5 receptions prop and 10.5 receiving line prop.

 

Again, I want to reiterate to have fun betting and watching this game. Don’t overextend yourself and keep yourself from trying to get every single aspect of the game right. This is going to be a tight, high scoring affair from two great teams. I’ll list some props below that I’ll be playing for fun and I like the odds so you can pick and choose how to build how you play this game. You can find all of these props on either Fanduel or Draftkings for the most part with some on MGM or Caesars. Don’t forget to shop around and find the best lines you can find to maximize your chances of winning.

 

Prop Options

Philadelphia Eagles Backfield

Miles Sanders o60.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 2u

Miles Sanders 1+ TD (+120): 2u

Kenny Gainwell o18.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 1u

Kenny Gainwell 1+ TD (360): 1u

Boston Scott o5.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 1u

Boston Scott 1+ TD (+500): 1u

 

Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts o48.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 3u

Jalen Hurts o10.5 Rushing Attempts (-110): 3u

Jalen Hurts 1+ TD (-105): 2u

 

Kenny Gainwell

Kenny Gainwell o10.5 Receiving Yards (-110): 2u

Kenny Gainwell o1.5 Receptions (-130): 3u

 

Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes o290.5 Passing Yards (-110): 1u

Patrick Mahomes o18.5 Rushing Yards (-105): 2u

Patrick Mahomes 1+ TD (+550): 1u

Patrick Mahomes 1st TD (+2800): .25u

 

Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco o46.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 2u

Isiah Pacheco o13.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 1u

Isiah Pacheco 1+ TD (+140): 1u

 

Juju Smith-Schuster

Juju Smith-Schuster o37.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 2u

 

Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce o79.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 2u

Travis Kelce 1+ TD (-125): 1u

 

Parlay Options

Miles Sanders 1+ TD, Kenny Gainwell 1+ TD, Boston Scott 1+ TD (+6500): .25u

Kenny Gainwell o26.5 Receiving Yards, o2.5 Receptions (+380): 1u

Kenny Gainwell o26.5 Receiving Yards, o2.5 Receptions, 1+ TD (+2000): .25u

Isiah Pacheco 1st TD, o74.5 Rushing Yards (+2200): .25u

Justin Watson o44.5 Receiving Yards, 1+ TD (+2500): .25u

 

Games Props

PHI o144.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 5u (MAX)

PHI winning margin 1-6 Points (+310): 1u

KC winning margin 1-6 Points (+320): 1u

Both teams to have 1+ Rushing TD (+125): 2u

Any QB to have 1+ Rec TD – YES (+4000): .25u

  • Any Non-QB to have 1+ TD Pass – YES (+2200): .25u 

Jalen Hurts 1st TD, Isiah Pacheco 2nd TD (+7000): .25u (Vice Versa works as well)

 

1st TD (.25u)

Patrick Mahomes (+2500)

Justin Watson (+4000)

 

MVP (.25u)

CJ Gardner-Johnson (+25000)



DFS

When playing the showdown slate this Sunday, keep in mind that you will need to be creative to differentiate yourself from the field. I strongly advise against playing cash games on showdown slates simply because it is a lot easier to just pick your favorite prop and bet that prop rather than trying to get five to six players right against the field. 

 

How I would recommend attacking this single game breakdown is to first decide how YOU think the flow of the game is going to go. If you think the Eagles are going to smash the Chiefs, load up on 4-5 Eagles and then fill in with a Chief or two. Do this on the opposite side if you think the Chiefs are going to work over the Eagles. With the spread being so close and only 1.5 points in favor of the eagles, most of the lineups on Sunday are going to be split down the middle. This means on Draftkings you will likely be facing off against lineups with either three players from each team or four from one team and two from the other. A great way to differentiate overall is to have five of one team and one of the other. Obviously, this is going to be tough to have happen but we are trying to take down GPPs here and if it was easy and straightforward, everyone would do it. If you are going to go down the middle and play three players from each team, you will need to differentiate with the players you choose. You can do this by paying down for a guy like Justin Watson (KC) or Jack Stoll (PHI) as a few examples. Having duplicate lineups as others significantly reduces your value in that lineup. So keep that in mind when balancing optimal lineups for raw points while also differentiating to maximize your chances at taking down a larger field tournament. 

 

An example of how I would approach a lineup that is split down the middle would first off start with my MVP and who I want in that top spot. Let’s start with Isiah Pacheco in this specific scenario. I think Pacheco has a 20-25+ point plus performance in his bag on Sunday. By choosing Pacheco as the player that will get me the 1.5x on Draftkings, I will also save the bonus pay money that I would normally have to pay for a QB (Hurts/Mahomes). If you were to put a QB like Hurts or Mahomes in your MVP spot, you are paying $16,800 (Hurts) or $16,500 (Mahomes) vs. the normal $11,200 for Hurts and $11,000 for Mahomes. Which you can absolutely do and still take down a large field tournament but in this scenario you are paying up to $10,800 for Pacheco instead of $7,200. This gives you extra savings to actually be able to fit both Mahomes and Hurts into your lineup. After we have Pacheco in the main MVP slot, let’s add in Mahomes and Hurts. Typically, QBs offer the highest floor but to differentiate, a positional player such as Pacheco or Kelce can really take the top off of a game by going for 100+ yards and multiple scores. I chose Pacheco because he can gather his points from both the ground and air to double up from Mahomes and also separate himself from Mahomes as the MVP while also giving salary relief. Now after we have Pacheco, Hurts, and Mahomes in our lineup, let’s fill in with some positional players from each team. Since I have both QBs in my lineup, I am admitting that I think both QBs will have a good game thus a bit higher scoring matchup. I need to fill in these gaps with their pass catchers to maximize the points my lineup will score. My favorite pass catchers from each of these teams are the tighends, so I’ll add Travis Kelce or Dallas Goedert to my lineup. If we add Kelce it is going to hinder us quite a bit salary wise. We could round out the lineup with Kenny Gainwell and a player like Noah Gray, Quez Watkins or Jack Stoll. If we decide to go with Dallas Goedert, we have a lot more freedom to guys like Juju Smith-Schuster, Kenny Gainwell, Jerick McKinnon, Skyy Moore, among others. 

 

As you can see through my process of making a showdown lineup, you need to plan your lineup before you fill in the gaps. If you have any questions on how to approach this game, ask me in chat. Below I have ranked out my preference per position. 

 

NFL Rank in PPR PPG Allowed Per Position (Weeks 12-21):

QB

  1. KC (19.3)
  2. PHI (17)

 

RB

  1. PHI (21.2)
  2. KC (19.9)

 

WR

Wide

  1. KC (14.2)
  2. PHI (7.5)

 

Slot

  1. PHI (17.6)
  2. KC (15.1)

 

TE

  1. KC (11.8)
  2. PHI (11.5)

NFL Rank in PPR PPG Allowed Per Position (Weeks 1-21):

QB

  1. KC (19.6)
  2. PHI (13.8)

 

RB

  1. KC (22.7)
  2. PHI (22.2)

 

WR

Wide

  1. KC (13.7)
  2. PHI (9)

 

Slot

  1. KC (20.2)
  2. PHI (17.9)

 

TE

  1. KC (11.9)
  2. PHI (10.6)

 

DFS Plays

QB

Jalen Hurts (PHI – $11,200/$17,000) – Higher Rushing upside/Rushing TDs

Patrick Mahomes (KC – $11,000/$17,500) – SLIGHTLY below Hurts. Could go either way.

 

RB

Isiah Pacheco (KC – $7,200/$10,500) – See above why I love Pacheco in this game.

Kenny Gainwell (PHI – $5,000/$8,500) – Air work for cheap PPR points on DK.

Miles Sanders (PHI – $7,800/$12,000) – No air work/Fade high ownership

Jerick McKinnon (KC – $6,800/$9,500) – Lower ownership than Pacheco

Boston Scott (PHI – $3,000/$7,500) – Random TD Dart

Michael Burton (KC – $200/$5,000) – Random TD Dart

 

WR

Juju Smith-Schuster (KC – $5,600/$9,000) – Eagles vulnerable vs. slow/low ownership

AJ Brown (PHI – $9,200/$12,50000) – Most talented WR in this game.

Davonte Smith (PHI – $8,600/$11,500)

Skyy Moore (KC – $3,800/$6,000)

Kadarius Toney (KC – $4,400/$7,000)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (KC -$6,200/$8,000)

Justin Watson (KC – $2,000/5,500) – Big Play/TD Dart

Quez Watkins (PHI – $1,400/6,000) – Big Play/TD Dart

 

TE

Dallas Goedert (Philadelphia Eagles – $6,400/$10,000) – Price Point over Kelce

Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs – $10,60000/$14,000) – Raw floor over Goedert

Jack Stoll (PHI – $600/$5,000) – Random TD Dart

Noah Gray (KC – $1,200/$5,500) – Random TD Dart



DST

Kansas City Chiefs ($3,400/$)

Philadelphia Eagles ($3,600/$9,000)

 

Note: Both Kickers are viable dart throws in this game.

Sanaynay
Author: Sanaynay

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