Week 1 Thursday/Friday Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. Also, I’ll be making my favorite plays official bets but I’ll also list the plays I am playing for fun or any plays that just didn’t make the cut at the bottom. As always, let me know if you want any clarity on anything in chat.
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Betting log: Betting Results (2024)
Thursday
Derrick Henry 1+ TD (-105): 3u – Draftkings
Derrick Henry o62.5 Rushing Yards (-120): 3u – MGM
Isaiah Likely o1.5 Receptions (-140): 2u – Draftkings
Friday
Saquon Barkley 1+ TD (+105): 2u – Draftkings
Christian Watson o37.5 Receiving Yards (-114): 2u – Fanduel
Breakdown
Derrick Henry
The Ravens have brought in the freight train that we call Derrick Henry to tote the rock for them this year. Over Henry’s career he has historically been towards the top every year in rushing TDs. He now joins a team that let Gus Edwards run in 13 TDs last year inside the 5 yard line resulting in Gus Edwards scoring a TD once every 15.23 carries last year. For comparison, this was the 2nd best mark in the NFL behind only Raheem Mostert of the Miami Dolphins. Henry himself only scored a TD once every 23.33 chances. This is by far the best situation Henry has ever been in for his career and is now set up for immense success in this offense. After the Ravens’ hearts were gutted last year in the AFC Championship game, I am willing to bet on them sticking to the ground game in this one. With the over/under floating at 46.5, I’m willing to bet this line every single time as this is likely the lowest odds we’ll get for Henry all year long. I expect him to be -180 or worse within a couple of games, maybe Week 2.
I also like Henry’s rushing yards line of 63.5 and his receiving line of 6.5 but I like the rushing line a bit more. As I mentioned above, the Ravens WILL NOT abandon the run. They are going to run the living hell out of the ball and Henry is set up perfectly to absolutely smash in this offense. We are going to see a lot of 12-Personnel on the field Thursday Night. This means that both Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely will be on the field at the same time. On top of this, they will be putting one of them in the slot and on run plays they are going to run RPO’s with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, doing their best to stretch the field with Henry on the edge instead of just running him up the gut into a brick wall like the Titans did time and time again. In this game specifically, the Chiefs return a lot of their 2023 starters and are more or less the same defense and in 2023, they ranked 31st in opposing RB yards per carry, allowing 4.6 per rush.
Isaiah Likely
I’ll keep this one short and sweet because it is more of a projection forward, as a lot of Week 1 plays usually are. As I mentioned above, I expect Likely to play a ton. He is in line to be the 3rd or 4th target earner on this team behind Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews mixed in with Rashod Bateman. Likely has had glowing reports from camp and said to have a great connection with Lamar Jackson that continues to grow. With the offense they are running, Likely getting two snags is a price on if he is purely a backup TE playing 30% of the snaps when in reality he is going to play 70-80% of the snaps with a lot of them in the slot. The Chiefs ranked 14th in the NFL in receptions per game allowed at 4.8 per game.
Saquon Barkley
A lot of people assume that Jalen Hurts is going to just tush push every time the Eagles get a chance this year but I think that is unlikely for two reasons. Last year the Eagles TRIED to hand the ball off to their RBs instead of forcing their franchise QB into a pile of massive men but it just never worked out. Swift was tackled on the 1 yards line around 6-8 times last year (depending where you look) which resulted in him seeing those carries go to Hurts. Swift saw 38 red zone carries last year which was 16th in the NFL but only ONE goal line. Jalen Hurts saw 44 red zone carries but saw a whopping 14 goal line carries, converting 11 of them. Both the carries and TDs were the most in the NFL. Now entering 2024 we have two major changes to this strategy. The Eagles went out and gave Saquon Barkley the richest contract for a RB this off-season, giving him a 3 year, $37.75M contract. Barkley is one of the biggest backs in the NFL pushing close to 235-240lbs. Over his career he has consistently played behind bottom 10 offensive lines yet has been amongst the league best at converting short yardage carries due to his mix of size and athleticism. On top of this, the Eagles Hall of Fame Center Jason Kelce retired this offseason. Kelce is often credited as being one of the main reasons the Tush Push worked so well in Philadelphia but has failed elsewhere due to his quickness and ability to consistently get leverage every single snap. Mix these two components and I think the Eagles WANT to have Barkley score more TDs as opposed to getting their star QB dog piled multiple times by 300lb+ lineman. Mix all of this with a game total of 48.5 we are going to see a lot of scoring. The last cherry on top is the value associated with this line as we have this line as heavy as -167 on other books, which is where the line should be.
Christian Watson
I’m taking a shot on Watson in this game. I know I’ve been vocal about “good fucking luck” when projecting this WR group but I think we have an edge here with Watson. Digging through the data over the last year specifically, it seems the Packers WANT Watson to be the WR1 in Green Bay but his health has been the only hurdle. Last year, when healthy, Watson was the Packers top target earner. Between Weeks 5 and 13 last year, Watson saw a solid 82% route participation, 2nd behind only Doubs (83%) on the team mixed with a 20% target per route run and 19% overall target rate, both tops on the team. His average depth of target was 17.2 which would have been 2nd to only Justin Watson (KC) on the season. The Eagles defense has been applauded for improving their secondary and defensive coach in Vic Fangio. While I do agree with these sentiments, this is the first game of their NFL career between two players the Eagles are relying on, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, both of whom should have great NFL careers but again, this is their first NFL game. On top of that, Christian Watson is a different beast athletically. This is why the Packers want him to emerge as their top WR in this offense. I’ll take a stab at a 20% target earning eclipsing 38 receiving yards who boasts a 17 yard adot against a young secondary learning a brand new system on the road in Brazil.
Unofficial Leans
- BAL/KC o46 (-110)
- Derrick Henry o6.5 Receiving Yards (-120) – MGM
- GB ML (+130)
