Week 1 Betting Breakdown

Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. Also, I’ll be making my favorite plays official bets but I’ll also list the plays I am playing for fun or any plays that just didn’t make the cut at the bottom along with who I think wins each game. As always, let me know if you want any clarity on anything in discord or on twitter. The best way to get alerts is through those outlets. Also, check out my tiktok as I’ll be doing more content over there as well.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Sanaynay9 

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Disclosure: How I bet

Betting log: Betting Results (2024)

Sunday

1pm

– Bijan Robinson (ATL) 1+ TD (-110): 3u – Draftkings (8/20)

– Kyle Pitts (ATL) o42.5 Receiving Yards (-114): 3u – Caesars (8/30)

– Joe Burrow (CIN) 1+ INT (+100): 3u – Draftkings (8/29) 

– Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) u66.5 Reveiving Yards (-115): 3u – Draftkings (9/6)

– NE/CIN u41 (-112): 3u – Draftkings (8/29)

– Malik Nabers (NYG) o4.5 Receptions (-175): 3u – Caesars (9/2)

– Malik Nabers (NYG) o5.5 Receptions (+130): 2u – Draftkings (9/2)

– Josh Whyle (TEN) 1+ TD (+1300): 1u – BetRivers (9/3)

– Adonai Mitchell 25+ Receiving Yards (-112): 5u – Caesars (9/6)

 

UNOFFICIAL DEGEN

– Josh Whyle (TEN) 1st TD (+6000) – Fanduel (9/3)

 

4pm

– Javonte Williams (DEN) 1+ TD (+255): 2u (8/20)

– Rico Dowdle (DAL) 1+ TD (+360): 2u – Draftkings (8/29) 

– Rico Dowdle (DAL) o24.5 Rushing Yards (-120): 5u – MGM (9/4)

– Rico Dowdle (DAL) 40+ Rushing Yards (+265): 1u – Draftkings (9/4)

– Rico Dowdle (DAL) 50+ Rushing Yards (+500): 1u – Draftkings (9/4)

– Rico Dowdle (DAL) 60+ Rushing Yards (+950): 3u – Draftkings (9/4)

– Rico Dowdle (DAL) 70+ Rushing Yards (+1000): 1u – Draftkings (9/5)

– Zamir White (LV) o55.5 Rushing Yards (-114): 3u – Fanduel (9/5)

– Zamir White (LV) 1+ TD (+200): 1u – MGM (9/5)

– Greg Dulcich (DEN) o16.5 Receiving Yards (-114): 5u – Fanduel (9/6)

– Greg Dulcich (DEN) 25+ Receiving Yards (+172): 3u – Fanduel (9/6)

– Greg Dulcich (DEN) 40+ Receiving Yards (+450): 1u – Fanduel (9/6)

– Greg Dulcich (DEN) 50+ Receiving Yards (+790): 1u – Fanduel (9/6)

– Greg Dulcich (DEN) 60+ Receiving Yards (+1100): 1u – Fanduel (9/6)

– Greg Dulcich (DEN) 70+ Receiving Yards (+1600): 2u – Fanduel (9/6)

8pm

– TBD (Eying Cooper Kupp, heavily, and David Montgomery)

Breakdown

1pm

Bijan Robinson

The core of this play is based around Bijan being the 8th overall, immensely talked bell cow RB that he should have been last year as the matchup isn’t particularly a good one. Last year the Steelers gave up the 10th fewest rushing TDs to opposing backs but I’m pushing through that with the value we got on the line. This Falcons offense is completely revamped and will be led by former Rams Pass Game Coordinator/QB Coach Zac Robinson. This offense is going to be schemed similarly to the LA Rams offense, which pegs a bell cow RB when plausible. Bijan is the best RB a McVay style offense has had outside of CMC to date and this staff has compared Bijan’s usage directly to CMC’s in San Francisco. Expect a ton of volume and for the Falcons to pound the rock down inside the 5 yard line this year. I’ll take a -110 line any day of the week as I don’t expect it to be a weekly value. 

Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow has historically been a slow starter each season so I’m looking to mix that with his matchup against a good defense. Burrow has consistently had his worst game of the year in Week 1. Last year against the Cleveland Browns he only completed 14 of his 31 attempts for 82 yards (no TDs or INTs) en route to a 24-3 loss. In 2022 he completed 33 of his 53 passes for 338 yards (6.38 ypa) with two scores but FOUR INTs in a home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers (23-20). With Ja’Marr Chase either missing this game or playing with next to no practice time this off season and Burrow coming off of wrist surgery and slowly being worked back in, I expect yet another slow performance. 

NE/CIN

Really this comes down to two things that stick out. One, the Patriots are traveling on the road to the Cincinnati Bengals with Jacoby Brissett under center with one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. On the flip side, the Bengals are notorious for starting slow on offense. You mix a slow start with the fact the Bengals best offensive player has skipped all offseason and still hasn’t practiced, the offense is going to look rough. We have a projected above average defense and defensive minded team in the New England Patriots and a middle of the pack, at worst, defense in the Bengals. The Patriots are going to do their best to slow this game down and milk their way to a low scoring win. The Bengals offense won’t be in sync enough to bury the Patriots like they would be able to 2 months from now. 

Ja’Marr Chase

This play is quite simple. Pigging backing on the under above and theme of Joe Burrow having a historically slow start to the season along with the fact Ja’Marr Chase said if he plays, he’ll be limited. Chase just practiced for the first time on Wednesday due to a contract dispute as he wants a raise. When asked if he would be playing Sunday, he simply said he wasn’t sure but if he does, he would be limited. Chase is trying to prove a point of how valuable he is to the Bengals along with the fact he doesn’t want to put himself in harm’s way if he isn’t ready. The line was yanked across all books (still down) except for BetRivers where it sits at 60.5. Regardless, we have a +EV with this bet in a game I expect to be low scoring against a good Patriots defense that was 2nd best against perimeter WRs in 2023 and is now getting their 2023 first round pick, CB Christian Gonzalez, back after he missed the majority of the 2023 season.

Adonai Mitchell

I was eying Mitchell all week just waiting for the line to drop on the news that Josh Downs would be ruled inactive. Well, I got my wish and then some. The line opened up at 25+ Receiving Yards at a very, very generous -114 line on Caesars which I couldn’t help myself but smash. With Downs out of this game, Mitchell will be manning the slot against a team that gave up the 4th highest yards per reception (14.1) and 12th highest yards per game (160) to opposing WRs in 2023. This game carries the 2nd highest game total on Sunday coming in at 48.5. On the other side, CJ Stroud has a phenomenal matchup (I actually like his over 272.5 passing yards) and will be pushing this Colts team to keep pace. If the Colts are forced to throw the ball 35+ times in this game Mitchell should have no problem breezing by this line. Anthony Richardson loves throwing over the middle of the field and had one of the highest average depth of targets doing so over his college career and early NFL sample size. If you missed 25+ yards, I’m still good with o35.5 receiving yards but at 3u. 

Malik Nabers

As a recurring theme, I don’t really care too much about the match up here but good thing for us, it is a juicy one. Malik Nabers is a dark horse candidate to finish top 5 in the NFL in terms of target usage and I fully expect the Giants offensive game plan, week in and week out, to revolve around Nabers. With that, there is no reason why Nabers can’t haul in upwards of 10 balls in this game if the Vikings offense is able to push (I expect them to) the Giants defense to the brink and come away with some points for themselves. In the one half of preseason football that Nabers and Daniel Jones played together, Nabers had six targets, catching four of them for 54 yards. The volume is going to absolutely be there and I am excited to watch Brian Daboll, who recently confirmed he is taking over play calling duties, call up plays on a weekly basis for Nabers. On top of this, the Vikings provide a great matchup this week. Last year under Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores, the Vikings ranked 5th worst in the NFL, allowing 177 receiving yards per game to opposing WRs. With that, the Vikings secondary is banged up entering this year and will be doing their best to hold it together on the back end. Not only will Nabers be schemed open, he shouldn’t have an issue getting open organically against a subpar secondary. 

Kyle Pitts

If you’ve been following along, I’m buying the talent and the major bounce back, break out season for Kyle Pitts. Correlated to what I mentioned above with Bijan Robinson and this new look Atlanta Falcons team, we now have Kirk Cousins under center tossing the ball to his playmakers. Kirk Cousins has historically been one of the friendliest QBs in terms of ball placement to his pass catchers and can run this offensive scheme perfectly with Zac Robinson. With that, I expect Kyle Pitts to be lined up all over the field, being an athletic WR build at the TE position. With that expectation of him taking a lot of snaps from around the field, a lot of them will come from inline at TE and from the slot WR position, earning a lot of targets over the middle of the field. The Steelers ranked 24th in the NFL last year guarding the slot WR spot which presents a very positive matchup for Pitts. This line should not have been 42.5 and is 

Josh Whyle

I’m not over the hill dying on this play but I felt the odds were more than enough to toss a unit at him. We got him to score a TD at +1300 which is a line for a player you barely expect to play at all whereas he was all the way down to +650 to +700 on Draftkings and Fanduel. During camp, Whyle competed with incumbent starter at TE, Chig Okonkwo. While Chig has flashed as a receiver, that isn’t necessarily what Brian Callahan is looking for in his starting TE. Whyle is an athletic, more all around TE who is a better blocker and has had glowing reports all throughout camp making plays and showing consistency blocking in the run game. All we need is a goal line play action fake block leak from Whyle leading to a wide open quick pitch from Will Levis to pay this one off. I’ll take these odds all day long. 

4pm

Javonte Williams

Javonte’s line was bet at +255 for a touchdown and now sits between +137 to +200 depending where you look. Flat out this bet was backed by value. Javonte is the starting RB on this team and will be the goal line back that sees by far the most touches overall. Not only is Javonte seeing a good chunk of the early work and end zone snaps, he will also be the 3rd down back, getting him on the field for 2 minute drills which even more increases his chances of scoring. While this defense is looking at an overhaul with Mike Macdonald calling the shots, they still gave up the 2nd most rushing TDs to opposing RBs (19) which further drives home the value.

Zamir White

Volume. Flat out. To be honest, it doesn’t matter the matchup and any single game that the Raiders play where it projects to be close, White is a good play for 20 or more rush attempts. This team is going to run the living hell out of the ball and play great defense. This defense was one of the worst in the NFL last year until Josh McDaniels was fired, leaving Antonio Pierce in charge. After he took over, they were a Top 3 defense, finishing as the 7th overall defense. With this mindset, as I mentioned, they want to run the piss out of the ball. Last year, Josh Jacobs was shut down after Week 14, leading to Zamir White taking over the lead back role. From Week 15 through 18 (4 games) White averaged 68.9% of the offensive snaps, 76% of the rush attempts (21/game) and 80% of the team’s short down and distance plays. In those four games he ran the ball at least 17 times each game and ran for at least 69 yards in all of them, averaging 99.25 rushing yards per game. Flat out, White is the hammer for this team and as long as this game is close, they are going to feed the beast and give him a groove. Not only do we have volume on our side but White has legit high end break away speed and can break through the pile any play and cash our over and 1+ TD any time he touches the ball.

Greg Dulcich

This will be my biggest bet of the week and likely ends up being one of my biggest bets of the year. Getting to 70+ Receiving Yards is tough but I legit think Dulcich can get there. This is an extreme value because the books aren’t viewing Dulcich as an integral part of this offense like I’m confident he will be. Historically in the Sean Payton led offenses (the way he wants) he will have a top WR and top TE eating the most of the targets along with a RB by committee being involved in the air game as well. He now has Bo Nix under center running the offense EXACTLY how he wants it to be run. We will see vast parallels between this Broncos offense and what the Saints offense looked like for so many years under Payton and Drew Brees. We saw Sean Payton turn Jimmy Graham into a Hall of Fame calibur TE by involving him heavily in the offense. Dulcich is by far the most athletic and explosive TE Payton has had since Jimmy Graham. During the Week 2 preseason game, the game in which Bo Nix had his coming out party and solidifying himself as the unquestioned QB1 in Denver, Dulcich caught two balls for 27 yards on only four routes including an 18-yard snag. I’m a firm believer in the “targets are earned” crowd and in 2022 Dulcich saw 55 targets in only 10 games including an eased in the first game (Week 6) that season. Of the 10 games he was active for, he had seven games of at least four targets and four games of eight or more targets with at least three in nine of the 10 games. He topped 39 yards or more in six of the games and topped 85 twice. Now keep in mind, this was a Nathaniel Hackett offense, an offense that doesn’t naturally feature a TE and a dogshit play caller in Hackett with a QB (Russell Wilson) who doesn’t excel in throwing to the TE position. Everything from Dulcich indicates he has a high ceiling and immense talent to produce consistently and the only thing in the way was his health. All of the reports out of camp indicate he is full go and looks phenomenal and matches up with the two snags for 27 yards with YAC we saw in the 2nd preseason game. I’m very high on Dulcich this week matchup wise as well. Last year the Seahawks ranked 8th worse in the NFL with a 10.9 YPR against TEs and gave up the 8th most yards overall to TEs in total. Schematically Mike Macdonald doesn’t focus on stopping the run and while he can run a variety of coverages, he has two things working against him specifically with the TE. The core of Macdonald is “bend don’t break” which puts an emphasis on fundamentals and just not letting the opposing offense get over the top, keep things in front of you and don’t take risks, do your job. Also, if he is trying to install multiple different schemes and coverages, that takes a lot of time and will be a learning curve for the defense just like the defenses he had in Baltimore where the 2023 season was exponentially improved over the 2022 defense. I wrote about it in the Divisional breakdowns that I think this is going to be a disappointing year for the Seahawks overall as they have a ton of youth in terms of leadership from the coaching staff. I’ll hammer these scenarios 100% of the time. 

Rico Dowdle

Betting Rico at +360 is a value play, plain and simple. We don’t have any sort of confirmation who the Cowboys goal line back will be between Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle but everything is leaning towards Rico being the main focus of this backfield. Rico has a three down skillset and the high end speed to score from any point on the field. Mix that in with it being a 50/50 chance Rico is the Cowboys goal line back and I’ll take these odds all day long considering Zeke is sitting at a +130 to +195 line, which is where Rico should be at. 

The first ladder of the 2024 season was posted! I’ll take these odds all day long with Rico. As I mentioned above, I think he is the RB1 in this backfield and even though Zeke is listed as the starter, it gives major veteran respect vibes. Zeke is still a solid all around back and the Cowboys trust him but we should be viewing this as a 2022 Zeke/Pollard situation where it is a 50/50 split more or less and Pollard the speed to offset Zeke’s consistency. A line of 24.5 is very obtainable as Rico runs behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and through a defense that ranked 26th in the NFL last year giving up 4.4 YPC. This game has a near even spread of 2.5 in favor of the Browns but with the Browns being out stud LT, Jedrick Wills, I expect their offense to sputter and have some issues moving the ball. I would be shocked if the Browns pulled away in this game and made the Cowboys abandon the run. I expect 10-12 touches for Rico minimum with that number increasing if the Cowboys get a double digit lead, which is unlikely but more plausible than the Browns getting a double digit lead. Rico won’t be under 30 rushing yards again this year. 

8pm

Cooper Kupp

I’m just going to write up my two players for SNF even if I don’t have the plays posted yet because I KNOW I’ll be on Cooper Kupp and even if I don’t end up on David Montgomery, at least you can make the decision for yourself if you want to be. I’m betting on Kupp still being an elite WR and I’m doing so based off of offseason reports saying the offense still runs through him, he looks phenomenal like the Kupp of old and he looks 100% healthy. I know the talk amongst town is that this Detroit defense is improved but not only am I not buying it, I don’t care. The Lions still project to have an elite rush defense and even if their pass defense is average, Kupp and this Rams offense will shred them to pieces. The game over for this game is the highest of the weekend, coming in at 52.5 as I write this article. I’m not going to pull any data from last year because Kupp wasn’t completely healthy at any point last year so the Rams ran their offense through Puka Nacua. While I still love Puka, as we all know, Kupp is the veteran and still an elite talent. Him and Stafford are both making a push to make the Hall of Fame and Kupp’s line is another extreme value on this slate. Expect well into double digit targets for Kupp and with the Rams defense taking a projected big step back, expect at least 40 pass attempts for Stafford. I wouldn’t be shocked if Kupp catches 10+ balls for 150+ yards on 15+ targets in this game.

David Montgomery

I mean, Montgomery is still the start and rock of this team. He is the grinder and Dan Campbell recently stated how important he is to this team as a tone setter. While I fully expect both Gibbs and Montgomery to split every other series, the lines are still favorable for Montgomery who I expect to have 14+ carries and see 2-3 goal line rushes. He also gets a nod over Gibbs in this situation because Gibbs has been limited most of camp while nursing a hamstring injury that he tweaked early in camp and then tweaked again a week later in early August. I don’t trust hamstrings so I will want to see Gibbs actually play before I bet on him and I’ll lean on Montgomery in the mean time. On top of that, the Rams defense is taking a big step back with Aaron Donald leaving for retirement and Raheem Morris (2023 Defensive Coordinator) leaving to take over the Atlanta Falcons Head Coaching gig. Morris has been replaced by Chris Shula, who is 38 years old and coaching his first year as a Coordinator. I expect the philosophies to stay the same but as I mentioned, the talent has been depleted with one of the most dominant defensive players in NFL history (Aaron Donald) retiring this offseason. 

 

Unofficial Leans

– Diontae Johnson o4.5 Receptions

– Malik Nabers yards ladder

– Sam Darnold o227.5 Passing Yards (and Justin Jefferson 81.5 Receiving Yards)

– Aaron Jones rushing u54.5 Rushing Yards

– Anthony Richardson o223.5 Passing Yards (Not double dipping with AD + AR)

– Nico Collins o66.5 Receiving Yards

– Javonte Williams o2.5 Receptions

– JK Dobbins o33.5 Rushing  Yards

 

Outright Winner Predictions

CAR @ NO – NO sucks, give me the new look Panthers in an upset.

MIN @ NYG – Giants will be better than everyone thinks this year.

NE @ CIN – I like NE +7.5 here. Low scoring close game but CIN wins

HOU @ IND – HOU wins but I really think IND has a chance here. Close, high scoring.

ARI @ BUF – Close game but give me the Bills, prefer to bet ARI spread.

PIT @ ATL – Atlanta just a more talented team and better coached.

TEN @ CHI – Caleb era starts. Bears defense too much for new look Titans offense.

JAX @ MIA – Miami too electric for Jacksonville.

DEN @ SEA – Biggest upset for me this week. Denver better than people think, SEA worse. 

LV @ LAC – Close game, I’ll give Harbs the edge.

DAL @ CLE – Give me the odds with Dallas.

WAS @ TB – The Bucs will make Daniels life hell with a relentless blitz.

LAR @ DET – Flip a coin and give me the odds.

NYJ @ SF – I’m not betting against SF at home in Rodgers first actual game in this offense.