Week 1 MNF Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. Also, I’ll be making my favorite plays official bets but I’ll also list the plays I am playing for fun or any plays that just didn’t make the cut at the bottom. As always, let me know if you want any clarity on anything in chat.
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Betting log: Betting Results (2024)
Monday
– George Kittle o41.5 Receiving Yards (-125): 3u – Caesars
– George Kittle 1+ TD (+200): 1u – Fanduel
– George Kittle 2+ TD (+1600): 1u – Fanduel
– George Kittle 3+ TD (+13000): 1u – Fanduel
– Garrett Wilson o5.5 Receptions (-148): 2u MGM
Breakdown
George Kittle
As good as the Jets defense is, they don’t guard the TE very well. In 2023 the Jets gave up the 15th most yards per reception to opposing TEs at 10.3 per catch while also giving up the 2nd most receiving TDs (8) to the position on the season. Opposing teams also targeted that position the 12th most in the NFL against the Jets, finding it their weakness so they attacked it. It has been widely known that Brandon Aiyuk spent the majority of the off-season in a contract dispute with the 49ers, missing almost all of camp. With that, the 49ers have said that Aiyuk will be limited in this game and on a “pitch count” resulting in less of an impact from Aiyuk. Most will run and jump to Jauan Jennings, and I do think that is a fine play. I think that Jennings is a solid player who will see a lot of snaps tonight due to his immense blocking abilities. Also, his receiving line of only 16.5 receiving yards is a small hurdle to jump. However, the Jets ranked 4th best in YPR against opposing WRs (11.4) last year, giving up the fewest receiving Yards (100) and receptions (8.8) per game. This is a horrible matchup overall for all of the perimeter WRs on the 49ers. Kyle Shanahan knows better and he will attack the Jets where they are most vulnerable, on the ground and in the middle of the field. We lost some units last night so I’m taking a swing at Kittle having one of those boom games.
Garrett Wilson
Aaron Rodgers is going to pepper Wilson in this game. Honestly, the matchup doesn’t even matter. Throughout Rodgers’ career he has always peppered his star wideout and funneled things through specific players giving them a 30%+ target share. Last year the 49ers ranked best in the NFL in yard per reception vs WRs, holding opposing WRs to only 10.8 YPR. On the flip side, they ranked 5th from the bottom in giving up 13.6 receptions per game to opposing WRs. I don’t like paying the -150 but I would be shocked if Wilson didn’t see a 10+ target count here in a game the Jets are entering as +4.5 underdogs.
