Week 2 Betting Breakdown
This week I’ll be trying something new at the bottom of this article. As I grow and learn what everyone is interested in, I’ll be adjusting these articles. The core of this breakdown is to learn the slate and explain what I like along with how I am approaching it. So I think offering a few thoughts on each game gets that point across along with who I like to score from each game to help everyone build their own parlays if they want. Let me know your thoughts on this new addition in chat and let me know if there is anything else you’d like to see or something you think is useless. The goal, each and every single bet, is to make money!
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: Betting Results (2024)
Sunday
1pm
– IND ML (-170): 3u – Fanduel
– Malik Willis o29.5 Rushing Yards (-113): 5u – Fanduel
– Malik Willis 50+ Rushing Yards (+300): 1u – Draftkings
– Malik Willis 60+ Rushing Yards (+550): 1u – Draftkings
– Malik Willis 70+ Rushing Yards (+950): 2u – Draftkings
– Malik Nabers (NYG) o62.5 Receiving Yards (-114): 3u – Fanduel
– Jameson Williams (DET) o44.5 Receiving Yards (-110): 3u – Fanduel
– Derrick Henry (BAL) o69.5 Rushing Yards (-125): 3u – MGM
– DK Metcalf (SEA) u54.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 3u – MGM
100-yard Parlay (+7255): Malik Nabers (Receiving), Derrick Henry (Rushing), Garrett Wilson (Receiving): 1u – Draftkings
4pm
– Demarcus Robinson (LAR) o42.5 Receiving Yards (-110): 3u – Draftkings
– James Conner (ARI) o64.5 Rushing Yards (-105): 3u –
– James Conner (ARI) 1+ TD (-105): 2u – Draftkings
– James Conner (ARI) 2+ TD (+600): 1u – Draftkings
– James Conner (ARI) 3+ TD (+2800): .5u – Draftkings
8pm
– TBD (A lot of injury news out there at the moment)
Breakdown
IND
I’m attacking Malik Willis here. To keep it simple, the Colts are a good team and pushed the Texans to the brink and Malik Willis is a terrible QB who the Packers brought on as a project. Obviously, they have not had enough time to bring him along and he is being thrown into the fire here against a very, very well coached Colts team. The Colts defense didn’t play as poorly as you may think as they focused on shutting down the pass and letting the run take care of itself and the only reason the Texans had success is because they ran the ball 30 times with Joe Mixon who only had 17 yards over expected on those 30 carries. I expect the Colts to do their best to load the box and make Malik Willis beat them and it won’t be pretty. On offense, I believe in Anthony Richardson more than most and Shane Steichen is one of the best and innovative offensive minds in the NFL. The talent of Willis will be just too much for the Packers to overcome.
Malik Willis
I love this angle of Malik Willis rushing yards in this game. We are covered by two angles to be aggressive on a very favorable line of 29.5 to help pay up for the ladder to hit big. The Colts aren’t a defense that I’m attacking specifically with a rushing QB as they are middle of the pack in terms of rushing yards allowed to QBs and RBs dating back to last year. Last year they ranked 17th with a -.07 EPA/Rush overall while allowing three rushes for 17 yards on average to opposing QBs and the 14th YPC (4.0) to RBs. However, overall, the Colts offense was unable to separate themselves from opposing offenses which resulted in allowing the 6th most rushing yards per game allowed to RBs. I bring up their data allowed to RBs specifically because I think both angles apply to this play which is why I love it. I fully expect the Packers to schematically game plan for Malik Willis to be a huge part of the rushing game through RPOs and designed QB runs, virtually treating this offense as a single-wing style “wild cat” style of offense. On top of that, we will have this be an actual NFL game where Malik Willis will actually have to throw the ball, something in which he is terrible at. These elite play callers such as Matt LaFleur can design specific plays to get the ball out quick to match the strengths of their QBs. He specifically brought in Malik Willis because he saw something in him and viewed him as a raw talent. He hasn’t had enough time (20 days) with Willis to really hone and adjust what needs to be done. With this, the play book will be extremely limited and this will force the Packers to rely mostly on his legs to move the chains and keep the defense honest. Also, I don’t think the Packers will give a shit about the long term health of Malik Willis like they would someone who is their franchise QB. I say that in a positive manner as if they will run him more aggressively and call designed runs such as QB Power or QB Draw without the regard of him taking hits, considering only a few games (2-3) rather than a full 17 game season of health. Lastly, we have pure scrambles in scenarios such as 2-minute drills where Willis will be a one read look and take off and run, hoping to move the chains or break a long run, which he is fully capable of doing. We have multiple angles at which we can cash this bet and we are not relying on game script or flow of the game and no matter how it flips, we have the Willis rushing in our corner, especially with the Colts being one of the fastest offenses (play call wise) in the NFL and the Colts being 3-point favorites.
Malik Nabers
Back to the well! I’m getting back in on Malik Nabers this week against this terrible Washington Commanders defense. I was optimistic entering the season that Dan Quinn would get at least more out of the defense than what their talent level displays but they were absolutely torched by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1. The Bucs had QB Baker Mayfield toss the ball only 30 times but it resulted in 289 yards and four scores for the offense, mostly going to the team’s wideouts. Mike Evans caught five of his six passes for 61 yards and two scores, Chris Godwin caught all eight of his passes for 83 yards and a score, and rookie Jalen McMillan caught one of this three targets for 32 yards and a score while being wide open earlier in the game with Baker Mayfield barely missing him. They got absolutely no pressure on Baker and Baker consistently found his guys wide open at all levels of the field. This all resulted in the Commanders allowing a Week 1 high +.69 EPA/pass play and the 3rd highest passing yards per play (9.0). Now, I know you may be concerned with Daniel Jones but I’m caulking Week 1 up as him a mulligan. If you choose not to do so with this offense, I get it. But I trust Daboll to get us there and incorporate Malik Nabers more into the offense than he did in Week 1. In Week 1, Nabers had a 100% route participation but the issue lied in the fact he only had a 14% target per route run and 19% target share overall while Wan’Dale Robinson had a 30% TPPR and 31% target share. Nabers was able to accumulate a +4.2 Receiving EPA and +.6 EPA/Target while Wan’Dale posted a -12.9 Rec/EPA and -1.07 EPA/Target. I’m trusting Brian Daboll to get things right on offense and get Nabers the 10+ targets I expected in Week 1 against a horrible secondary.
Jameson Williams
Make no mistake about it, this was a full blown breakout game for Jameson Williams. All off-season Dan Campbell has been pumping up Jameson Williams but since he has done this before, I took it with a grain of salt. However, in Week 1 against the LA Rams, Williams posted a team high 27% target per route run, 30% target share, 65% of the team’s air yards (14.6 ADOT), 43% of the 3rd down targets, had a 94% route participation, and he also posted a team best +3.8 Receiving EPA. This week I’m going back to the Jameson Williams well instead of flipping back to Amon-Ra St. Brown or Sam Laporta. The Lions host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday in a game that has the highest game total (51) on the week. While last week the Bucs played well and trounced the Washington Commanders, their pass defense won’t hold up in this one. Knowing this Bucs defense (run by Todd Bowles) is a pass funnel defense, and looking back to 2023 when they had a more talented roster, they are going to be exposed here. Last year they gave up the 8th most pass yards per play (6.4), 8th most YPR to WRs (13.5), 4th most yards per game to opposing WRs (178), and sported the 9th worst EPA/Pass (-.03). With this, they will be without top CB Carlton Davis (left for DET via Free Agency) and start Safety Antoine Winfield. With Goff and Jameson showing they are in sync and Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson proving that Jameson is a huge part of their game planning, I expect there to be another 5+ target game with multiple downfield targets, trying to strike the big play.
Derrick Henry
I have no concerns with Derrick Henry moving forward, at all. He didn’t look slow or lethargic to me, he always runs upright like that so it visually isn’t as “appealing” as these smaller quicker backs. The reality is, once Henry gets on the edge he can house literally any single rushing attempt he gets. The Ravens didn’t bring Henry in for him to be the focal point of the offense but they did bring him in to be the focal point of the running game and that was apparent as he saw 13 rush attempts in Week 1’s loss to the Chiefs compared to Justice Hill, who only saw one. This was a game the Ravens were losing by double digits early into the 3rd quarter and had to abandon the pass all while having the Chiefs stuff the box and force the Ravens to throw. This week the Ravens will host the Raiders and enter the game as 8.5 point favorites over a Raiders defense that was just gashed on the ground. The Raiders let the Chargers run for 176 yards on them and were the crux of the JK Dobbins resurgence, who had two very long runs that should have been TDs if he didn’t rip his knee into pieces and pop his achilles over the last couple years. In this game, Henry won’t be caught from behind. Anytime the Ravens are more than a touchdown favorite you can feel confident with Derrick Henry getting 15+ carries resulting in 100+ rushing yards with the chance at multiple TDs.
DK Metcalf
An under, fucking nasty but there is a reason! This is a mixture of Christian Gonzalez emerging as a premier shutdown corner in the NFL and the style of offense BOTH the Patriots and Seahawks will run in this game. First, Christian Gonzalez is an absolute stud, lock down corner. In his rookie year he was able to hold Garrett Wilson (QB issues, I know) to only 18 yards on 3 receptions against 23 routes, shut Tyreek Hill out on 17 routes, held Devonta Smith to 2 receptions for 22 yards on 11 routes and in the same game AJ Brown to four receptions for 47 yards on 19 routes. In Week 1, he faced Ja’Marr Chase on 20 routes and held Chase to only 15 yards on three receptions. Also, Gonzalez has enough size to match up with DK Metcalf at 6’1” / 205 lbs. This leads me to the matchup between these two offenses. They are both run first, methodical drain the clock offenses that are going to rely on their defense to win games. Some think that Seattle Seahawks new Offensive Coordinator Ryan Grubb is a pass happy OC but he has been extremely adamant about establishing the run. We saw this in Week 1 with them as they ran the ball 33 times as opposed to 27 pass plays. This resulted in only 158 passing yards for the offense all together and DK Metcalf only seeing four targets even though he ran 93% of the routes seeing a 15% target per route run and 17% target share. He was only able to bring down three of those four targets for 29 yards. When you mix this in with the fact the Patriots are vocal on running the ball and put it in the action in Week 1 when they ran it 39 times to 25 pass plays, only being beaten out by the Pittsburgh Steelers in terms of ratio as they ran it 41 times vs. 25 pass plays and the Steelers are hiding the passing deficiencies of Justin Fields who is also an elite rushing QB so it is a bit skewed. At the end of the day, this is going to be a very, very boring game that will be won in the trenches. DK Metcalf can break a pass at any moment and I’m not convinced Gonzalez shadows but I expect him to see DK on over half his routes, giving DK fits all game long.
4pm
Demarcus Robinson
The Cardinals defense got shredded by the Buffalo Bills vanilla offense in Week 1. They allowed the 3rd highest EPA/Play (+.19) overall while giving up the 4th highest passing yards per play (8.9) and allowed Josh Allen to connect with his young and average talented at best WR group for 232 yards on only 23 attempts (10.1 YPA) with 2 scores and no picks resulting in a +.47 EPA per drop back and +14.1 EPA per pass attempt. We get to mix that with a Rams offense who is down their run stuffing Offensive Lineman and will be forced to throw the ball in a game that has the 2nd highest game total (49) on the week. Last week, albeit against a great run defense in Detroit, Stafford threw the ball a whopping 49 times. I expect this volume to once again translate into this week and as I mention pre season, this Rams defense is BAD and will continue to leak points week in and week out until proven otherwise. Now, why Demarcus Robinson? Well, I want to start by saying I still LOVE Cooper Kupp this week and I’ll be playing him as well but after what I saw the Cardinals do last week to Dalton Kincaid, I am trusting Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay are wise enough to notice it as well. I’m not saying they won’t force feed Kupp and the ball and scheme him open, they will. But also, they would be insanely stubborn to not realize if Kupp is being triple covered, a simple play action crosser (which the Bills did with Coleman multiple times in Week 1) to Demarcus Robinson is a +EV play for them. This leads me to Robinson over guys like Tyler Johnson (also love him this week), Tutu Atwell, and Jordan Whittington. Specifically Sean McVay is honest in his pressers regardless if he is talking about depth chart decisions or injury implications and this week he mentioned specifically he expected Cooper Kupp (obviously) and Demarcus Robinson to lead the way and trusted guys like Tyler Johnson, Tutu Atwell, and Jordan Whittington to step up when given the opportunity. As I’ve mentioned all off-season, Robinson was the WR3 for this team 100% locked in on the outside. This will not change and all it will do is bump him up in the pecking order to 2nd with Puka Nacua out. In Week 1 Robinson had a 92% route participation with a 15% TPPR, 15% target share, 11.7 ADOT, 27% of the air yards, 33% of the end zone targets and 18% (2nd highest on the team) of the 3rd and 4th down targets. To no shock, Robinson led the team with a +3.8 Receiving EPA on his seven targets, five of which he caught for 47 yards. This Cardinals secondary is soft and I think they will rely on their defensive backs to step up and make plays while they try their best to stop Kupp and make the secondary pieces beat them. Robinson is their 2nd best option and I think he is in a smash spot here.
James Conner
I like this matchup a lot for the Arizona Cardinals offense. Last week it was visibly noticeable the immediate decline the Rams defense will see this year. Now granted, they faced the Detroit Lions elite offensive rushing attack but they ended the week giving up the 6th highest rushing yards per play (5.3) and had the 2nd worst EPA/Rush against them (+.37). With that, the Cardinals are destined to run the ball and be stubborn about it, and rightfully so. They posted the 9th best EPA/Rush (+.11) against the Bills last week and for comparison, the Miami Dolphins had a -.12 EPA/Rush against this very same Bills defense in Week 2 on TNF. The Cardinals shot out of the gate feeding James Conner on the opening drive, giving him six rush attempts and the only reason he didn’t have more is because Kyler got sacked multiple times to end the drive. All in all, this game presents the high game total I mentioned above and as James Conner ended last week with 16 carries for 50 rushing yards, seeing 67% of the snaps and 73% of the team’s rush share and 100% of the touches inside the five, I’m confident Conner gets to 70+ and a couple of scores this week.
Quick Notes
I’m going to try something new here. I’ll go through each game and give quick notes on who I like to cover and whether I like the over or under. I’ll put one or two quick lines plus a bet or two I like from each game that didn’t quite make it to the official bets. Also, I’ll put TD scorers I like from each game at current betting odds. To keep this simple, I’ll use Draftkings lines for each TD scorer.
SF -5 @ MIN / o46.5
SF is just too good, Shanahan knows Darnold too well so I expect a good defensive gameplan.
– Jordan Mason over Rushing Yards and 1+ & 2+ TD: Only if CMC is out. If not, avoid.
– Justin Jefferson LIVE Receiving line: I’ll be targeting this in game for garbage time with likely no Addison. Someone is going to get the yards, Darnold should get 220+.
TD Scorers: Mason (-160), Brandon Aiyuk (+160), SF DST (+450) Sam Darnold (+500)
SEA @ NE +3.5 / u38
Tough place to play in NE, tough defense, Jacoby Brissett won’t fuck it up. Low scoring game with two defensive minded Head Coaches and lethargic offenses.
– Rhamondre Stevenson o61.5 Rushing Yards: This one ALMOST made it to be official but I liked betting DK Metcalf’s under a little bit more. Not buying good SEA rush D and Stevenson may see 25+ carries again.
TD Scorers: Kenneth Walker (+100), Rhamondre Stevenson (+115), Zach Charbonnett (+130- if Walker inactive), Hunter Henry (+400)
NYG +1.5 @ WAS / o43
Simply put I think the Giants are better coached and have a more talented roster. I think the Commanders are in trouble and could end up being one of the worst teams in the NFL this year.
– Terry McLaurin o48.5 Receiving Yards: Can’t trust this offense, GREAT matchup.
TD Scorers: Devin Singletary (+110), Brian Robinson (+140), Daniel Jones (+240), NYG DST (+370), Jalin Hyatt (+600)
LAC -5 @ CAR / u39
Carolina proved they’re the worst team in the NFL, I don’t think they win a game. LAC has one of the best run offenses in the NFL and CAR has one of the worst run defenses.
– JK Dobbins o54.5 Rushing Yards: Matchup based, worried about hot hand approach.
– Gus Edwards o44.5 Rushing Yards: Matchup based, worried about hot hand approach.
TD Scorers: JK Dobbins (+145), Gus Edwards (+160), Hayden Hurst (+290), LAC DST (+330), Justin Herbert (+360)
TB +7.5 @ DET / u51.5
High Scoring game. I think Detroit wins but TB has the offense to keep it close and backdoor cover at worst.
– Chris Godwin o61.5 Receiving Yards: Great offensive environment.
– Baker Mayfield o35.5 Pass Attempts: Hit 37 and 41 L2 games vs. DET.
TD Scorers: Sam LaPorta (-110), Mike Evans (+110), Jameson Williams (+150), Chris Godwin (+230), Cade Otton (+400)
NO @ DAL -6 / o46.5
The Saints trounced the Panthers in Week 1 but it was because they kept Carr clean. They won’t be successful here and Dallas may win by 20. Looking at a live bet for Rico props (yards and score) and DAL DST TD.
– Ezekiel Elliott 1+ TD: Great scoring environment, big favorites.
– CeeDee Lamb o87.5 Receiving Yards: Concerns for volume.
TD Scorers: Ezekiel Elliott (+100), Rico Dowdle (+200), Taysom Hill (+250), DAL DST (+380), Brevyn Spann-Ford (+650)
LV @ BAL -8 / u41.5
The Raiders offense is bad, Ravens usually dominate games they are big favorites.
– Zamir White u41.5 Rushing Yards: Bad game script that favors Mattison.
– Derrick Henry 2+ TD (+300): Don’t like the odds but he probably scores twice.
TD Scorers: Derrick Henry (-185), Davante Adams (+200), Mark Andrews (+230), Michael Mayer (+750)
IND -2.5 @ GB / u40.5
Malik Willis is a HORRIBLE passer at this stage of his career and the Colts defense is well coached. Expect a VERY run heavy approach from the Packers but Colts offense being too much at the end.
– Malik Willis o.5 INT: Willis is wildly inaccurate and will airmail when made to throw.
– Malik Willis 1+ TD (+260): He’ll run it, A LOT. Could easily keep a RPO at the GL.
– Anthony Richardson o39.5 Rushing Yards: Packers will try and take away the deep ball which will force AR to run a few more times than he wants. GB gave up 2nd most rushing yards to QBs last year.
– IND DST 1+ TD (+400): Simply returning a Malik mistake for a score.
TD Scorers: Josh Jacobs (+110), Jonathan Taylor (+115), Anthony Richardson (+150), Malik Willis (+260), Adonai Mitchell (+370), IND DST (+400), Dontayvion Wicks (+900)
CLE @ JAX -3 / u41.5
Jags get the nod at home, Watson is horrible, don’t bet on him.
– Deshaun Watson o24.5 Rushing Yards: He has topped it in each of his last two healthy games. He has bailed on the pass and used his legs, actually smart because he can’t throw anymore.
– Amari Cooper o59.5 Receiving Yards: JAX DBs are decimated. If he can’t do it here I’m not sure when he can.
– Travis Etienne o51.5 Rushing Yards: Doug Pederson reiterated ETN is the starting and will see the majority of the rushes with Bigsby spelling. I want to see it before I bet but this is a plus matchup for him.
TD Scorers: Travis Etienne (+105), Amari Cooper (+160), Jordan Akins (+205), Gabriel Davis (+265)
NYJ -3.5 @ TEN / o41.5
The Jets get right on offense here, win by 7-10ish on Tennessee.
– Garrett Wilson o69.5 Receiving Yards: I wanted to post this when it opened at 64.5 but I waited and it jumped. I alted him to 100+ Receiving yards in quite a few parlays.
– Allen Lazard o3.5 Receptions: Played in the slot with a low ADOT except for his long TD. Saw a 31% target share which was 9 targets. Mike Williams expected to play more but not a ton.
TD Scorers: Garrett Wilson (+155), Tyjae Spears (+195, Tyler Conklin (+320), NYJ DST (+340), Allen Lazard (+350), Josh Whyle (+850)
LAR +1 @ ARI / o47.5
This is a toss up. Give me the more experienced staff who has had more success to this point.
– Cooper Kupp o85.5 Receiving Yards: Puka out, Kupp elite, see Robinson breakdown for matchup.
– Trey McBride o49.5 Receiving Yards: Had elite usage in Week 1 and Rams are trending to be a target for TEs. Rams gave up 6th most receiving yards (987) to TEs in 2023 and 3rd highest YPR (12).
TD Scorers: Kyren Williams (-170), James Conner (-110), Cooper Kupp (+135), Trey McBride (+145), Kyler Murray (+175), Demarcus Robinson (+215), Colby Parkingson (+330)
PIT @ DEN +2.5 / u36.5
This will be close, low scoring so I’ll take the points in a tough environment.
– Greg Dulcich o2.5 Receptions: I know. But he had a 69% route participation, 100% catchable targets and 3.5 ADOT. Targets should come and this is a good matchup.
– Bo Nix o24.5 Rushing Yards: Ran 5/36 in Week 1. Has this aspect to his game and I expect him to consistently use it. Steelers gave up 10th fewest rushing yards to QBs in 2023.
– Najee Harris o59.5 Rushing Yards: On paper, good matchup. Gave up the 2nd most rushing yards to RBs in 2023 but I expected improvement this year. DEN had the 18th ranked EPA/Rush in Week 1 (-.01) but I need to see Najee’s usage continue before betting on this backfield.
TD Scorers: Najee Harris (+145), Justin Fields (+220), Bo Nix (+370), Greg Dulcich (+550), Adam Trautman (+700), Cordarrelle Patterson (+1200)
CIN @ KC -5.5 / u47.5
The Bengals are trending down, Chiefs up. I’ll bet against Burrow until he proves I shouldn’t.
– Zack Moss o40.5 Rushing Yards: Moss the RB1 vs. a poor KC rush D.
– Mike Gesicki o26.5 Receiving Yards: I’ll be attacking Nick Bolton all year. Just need more consistency from Mike Gesicki.
TD Scorers: Travis Kelce (-110), Zack Moss (+120), Mike Gesicki (+300), Samaje Perine (+330), Tanner Hudson (+800)
CHI +6.5 @ HOU / u45.5
Should be a good game, we’ll learn a lot watching this one. Nod to Stroud but I think the Bears can keep it close enough to cover.
– Joe Mixon o17.5 Rush Attempts: He ran it 30 times in Week 1’s victory over the Colts, coaches think he can handle it every week, and Dameon Pierce is banged up.
– Joe Mixon 1+ TD (-150):
– Caleb Williams o17.5 Rushing Yards: Caleb has a rushing element about him people forget. Mix that with a primetime game they’ll be trailing I’m betting he runs more than we expect. HOU gave up the 11th fewest rushing yards to QBs in 2023.
TD Scorers: Joe Mixon (-150), DJ Moore (+170),Brevin Jordan (+425), Khalil Herbert (+550), Travis Homer (+750) – We still don’t know the CHI GL back and all 3 split SSD snaps evenly.
