Week 2 TNF Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. Also, I’ll be making my favorite plays official bets but I’ll also list the plays I am playing for fun or any plays that just didn’t make the cut at the bottom. As always, let me know if you want any clarity on anything in chat.
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Betting log: Betting Results (2024)
Thursday
– Jeff Wilson (MIA) 1+ TD (+255): 3u – Draftkings
– Jeff Wilson (MIA) 2+ TD (+2200): 2u – Draftkings
– Jeff Wilson (MIA) 3+ TD (+7000): 1u – Draftkings
– Josh Allen (BUF) o36.5 Rushing Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel
– Josh Allen (BUF) 1+ TD (-105): 2u – Fanduel
Breakdown
Jeff Wilson
As we’ve talked extensively in chat, Wilson is in line for an increased workload in Week 2 on TNF. With Raheem Mostert already ruled out and De’Von Achane a game time decision as I am writing this, Wilson should see between 40%-60% of the snaps on offense, if not more. Even if Achane is active, he is nursing a high ankle sprain which usually keeps players out for at least a week and if he plays, it will reduce his explosiveness. Everyone has run to Jaylen Wright but my concern is with Wright still nursing his own shoulder injury from the pre-season mixed with Wright being inactive himself in Week 1 (healthy or not). Jeff Wilson has been in this system for six years now dating back to his time in San Francisco with Mike McDaniel when McDaniel was the Offensive Coordinator of the 49ers. The Dolphins are hosting the Bills on a short week and McDaniel trusts Wilson to be in the right place at the right time. Last week when Mostert went down, Wilson ended up seeing that workload, ending with 24% of the team’s rush attempts and 15% of the snaps in a game that Miami was losing by double digits for the majority of it. He ended with five carries total for 26 rushing yards with a +.5 RYOE/Att and +.15 Rush EPA/Att all while facing stacked box 40% of the time.
Josh Allen
Ever since Joe Brady took over as the Offensive Coordinator, it seems the Bills don’t give a shit about Josh Allen’s health. They tried to limit his rushing and then they fired Ken Dorsey and simultaneously said “fuck it” in terms of play calling to protect their franchise QB. Over the last five games played for Allen overall, he has run the ball at least eight times in each of them and topping 39 in all five while beating 67 rushing yards in three of the five. On top of that, Josh Allen has eclipsed 47 rushing yards in four of the Bills last five matchups against the Dolphins, accruing 263 yards on 5.85 yards per carry and 9 rush attempts a game. I’m fine if you want to take a shot at a ladder for Allen but I’m holding tight tonight and focusing on Wilson scoring and Allen getting to 37 yards rushing. With a projected game total of 49, we should be in for a fun one.
Unofficial Leans
Ray Davis 1+ TD (+800)
Josh Allen Ladder to 80+ on Draftkings
