I’m skipping the Mets/Brewers game with Hall and Severino on the mound. The wind should be blowing out close to 15mph, which makes the alternate line over seven intriguing, but I’m not looking for intrigue right now. Hall is making his Brewers debut after being acquired for Corbin Burnes in the offseason. The Mets and Brewers will be two teams off my radar this season. Brewers’ home games always come into play, especially in series against the Cards and Reds, but a matchup on the road in a pitcher-friendly Citi Field will keep me off.
Detroit should win their matchup over the White Sox but if I were going to be betting on it I’d be betting on Kenta Maeda and taking the first five. I don’t trust the Tigers lineup on the road enough to lay the -140 with how many other games I like. Luis Maldonado, Luis Robert, and Andrew Benintendi have three combined hits over thirty-three at-bats against Maeda and account for two of the top three spots in the White Sox lineup.
We started the season with a Baltimore sweep over the Angels with Corbin Burnes on the mound. I didn’t think beating the Angels would take much offense, and I was right. The Angels didn’t put up their second and third runs until Dillon Tate took the mound in an already 11-1 game in the top of the eighth inning. I expect more out of the Angels’ offense today and with the wind blowing out slightly 10mph I will be playing the over 7.5.
The Braves offense exploded after Zack Wheeler was out of the game for a Braves win. Aaron Nola takes the mound today against Maz Fried. This typically would be a pitcher duel on paper but Nola has a career 3.40 ERA against the Braves with Max Fried having a career 3.62 ERA against the Phils. This matchup is where I like going against the grain and taking the over, especially live if the first inning goes scoreless. The total of 7 is -185, so I would prefer to play 7.5 at -145. There are hitter props I like, with Acuna, Ozuna, and Riley taking Nola deep four or more times in their careers. I will play Acuna and RIley over 1.5 bases and splash Acuna’s stolen base at +185.
We will also return to Cincy with Patrick Corbin on the mound to close out the pre-7 pm games. The wind, at 18+ mph, should be a factor, blowing out to left field, so I expect the ball to carry. Green puts over 40% of his pitches in the air so Washington should be able to steal a few runs here.
Official Plays:
- 4:05pm Los Angeles/Baltimore over 7.5 -145: 3u
- 4:05pm Atlanta/Philadelphia over 7.5 -145: 3u
- 4:05pm Ronald Acuna (ATL) over 1.5 bases -105: 1.5u
- 4:05pm Ronald Acuna (ATL) over .5 stolen bases +190: 1u
- 4:05pm Austin Riley (ATL) over 1.5 bases +110: 1u
- 4:05pm Trea Turner (PHI) over .5 stolen bases +375: .5u
- 4:05pm Bryce Harper (PHI) over .5 stolen bases +575: .5u
- 4:10pm Washington/Cincinnati over 9 -175: 2u
- 4:10pm Cincinnati Reds team total over 4.5 -175: 2u
