Good Morning Everyone,
I’ve been sick these past few days and slept a lot during the day, so I am getting these two articles out now for everyone. We have fifteen games on the board today, but I will continue to target only two to three games. If you want more than the posted plays, I will touch on any important notes I feel are worthy for the games I am not playing for you.
The slate starts at 12:30 with Detroit and Florida. While Florida has dominated this matchup, winning nine of the last ten, it has lost six of seven overall. History says this is a favorable matchup for Florida, but its recent play concerns me. Florida looks like they’ve lost their spark and are playing flat. The lines are too expensive for me to play the Panthers having to risk -250 on the ML or need four goals to hit their total, and Detroit has played just as poorly, being shut out in two of their last three games, all losses. I will pass on this game pregame and jump on it live if the scoring starts early. This game should be lower-scoring, and I would prefer to avoid it with the month we’ve been having.
The Vegas game interests me with where Vegas’ lines have opened up. Vegas has scored three or more goals in seven of the last eight meetings with Minnesota. I expected Vegas’ total to be 3.5 at home, translating to a juiced three on the road. Surprisingly, the juiced total is on 2.5 at -175 and 3 being -115. This game is where you want to look and grab Vegas live on 2.5 with a -140 price range. I am not because other favorable matchups are on the board, and the books expect this game to be much closer than we would. Avoiding this game is not wrong with how we all feel about Minnesota.
If Edmonton’s total was 3.5, we’d be on it. We recently played Colorado on a total of four, and I had hesitations about it. I don’t like heading into a game needing five goals to get a pricey win. Edmonton has scored four or more in eight of their last ten meetings, but they have burned us a lot this season. They have cashed us, but I have had trouble picking and choosing the right times to play and fade with this team. Taking Edmonton to win on the puck line of -1.5 would cost us -200 and is too rich of a price for me to play, but it is not a play I hate. The -1.5 line is a play you can use in parlays.
The Rangers should win and dominate, but this game glares like the top trap. We can afford to pass on this game even if the Rangers blow the Coyotes out. I mention time and time again how Arizona plays tight, scrappy games, and they’re coming off a dominating win over the Predators. Let’s fade here and assess afterward.
I’m treating this game like the Rangers and Avs game from the other night. This could be a playoff matchup, and the Preds have started to regain control of this rivalry. The Avs swept the Preds en route to their recent Cup win after Nashville lost Juuse Saros, and I always believed Nashville would have won that series if Saros was healthy. Nashville’s 2.5 team total appeals to me, as does Jason Zucker’s 1.5 shot total if you absolutely want plays here.
Winnipeg has lost five in a row but should rebound against the Sens. The lines are just too expensive for me to pay to be on them. Consider the Jets money line if you want to get creative in a round-robin scenario.
Toronto/Buffalo and Pittsburgh/Columbus are in the same category for me. Two matchups whose overs were tremendous money makers who saw their last two meetings go under. We got burned in the Leafs one but faded Pittsburgh/Columbus two nights ago, and we were spot on. The over came close to hitting when they put up four goals in the second, and the Pens scored less than a minute into the third, but that would be the last goal the game saw. I’m staying away from both again today.
Montreal has won three in a row, so we should expect them to get caught today. Teams like Montreal don’t go on long winning streaks, and a matchup against the Hurricanes should bring them back to earth. The lines are out of reach for me, so parlaying Carolina’s money line with Edmonton’s -1.5 makes a +110 parlay.
Philly has lost four of five and is barely hanging onto its playoff spot. Tonight, Philly needs a win against the Blackhawks, who they have fared well against in the past. I’m laying off them here because their team total is 3.5. Philly needs to keep this game low-scoring, and I worry that we will be in the same spot we were a month ago in this matchup, relying on an empty net situation to get the fourth goal.
Tampa has all but locked up the first wild-card spot, but they have an outside chance to still catch Toronto for third in the division. Tampa usually dominates the Isles, and I like their team’s total of three with Semyon in net for the Isles.
I am weary about today’s slate and feel it will favor the books heavily. The games where I do think the top teams win will be low-scoring games. The games I like the most are St. Louis and Dallas. St. Louis refuses to give up on their playoff chances, have won seven of their last nine, and get the Sharks at home. The Blues won eight in a row before the Sharks ended that streak very early on this season. I expect St. Louis to put up a good offensive game and continue their push for the playoffs. I don’t think they will get in, but every year, one team makes a valiant effort that eventually becomes too little too late, and this year it’s St. Louis. The other game I like is Dallas over Seattle. Seattle lost eight in a row before winning back-to-back games against Anaheim. I have targeted this matchup a lot over the past two seasons and favor Dallas and scoring heavily. Dallas on the road sets their total at three but is juiced just like the money line. I will be locking in St. Louis and Dallas as my only three plays with how weary I am on the rest of the slate and will be laying to pay the price on these two teams for it.
Official Plays:
- 8:08pm St. Louis Team Total over 3.5 -155: 2.5u
- 10:08pm Dallas ML -175: 2u
- 10:08pm Dallas Team Total over 3 -175: 3u
