Good Afternoon Everyone,
I am more frustrated about the live plays I did not hit yesterday the the pregame we lost. I was watching the game and watching the OT line late in the third and it was still +120. Then the Oilers ML was -150. It’s been tough, I’m not worried about losing on the day, we knew it was only a two game slate, we hit both plays on the Rangers, and have a full slate today, but being down in December and January, and that three day losing streak last week has held me back. I want everyone to continue riding through March. February was a good month and I will double check overall but we should be positive. For March, especially with the trade deadline coming, I need to go all in. If we don’t profit in March, I will give everyone the next month free, but I need to just fire out what I see and not be worried. It’s a tough conundrum. When I hear morale is down, I pull back risking losing more, but then I miss out on what I see. I am disclaiming now, that I am going to be firing out a lot more live plays and am not going to look at the units until the end of the month and will compensate you all then. I wanted to put two units on OT +120, and three units on Edmonton -150 to win, but I was nervous about what the reaction would be if the Oilers lost. The Oilers played very well and we had ample opportunities. Not getting the over 5.5 was more frustrating than not getting the Oilers team total. I feel I was on point yesterday with Columbus, the Rangers, and the Blues. The Oilers not getting to three before the end of the game to at least put us in position for the empty net was the dagger. I’m not sure why that high stick at the end of the game wasn’t a 4 minute penalty either with Kane being bloodied. We got screwed out of an extra two minutes there. For tonight, I am going to break down the games one by one and give you my takes and leans and then make plays official.
With Vegas and Boston, these two teams are too tight for me to make a play on. Boston has the better end of the matchups early in the years, but lately the two have played back and forth. Neither team right now is in a position dominating their competition. Jeremy Swayman is the weaker of the two Boston netminders, and Adin Hill is projected to start for Vegas. I have absolutely no lean on this game and will be staying off completely.
Carolina is the first team I want to jump on, being on the road against a Columbus team coming off a back to back. With Merzlikins starting yesterday, Danill Tarasov should be in net for Columbus. Johnny Gaudreau was banged up in yesterday’s game with the Rangers after colliding with Vinny Trochek. The books expect Carolina to dominate this game with a -275 ML and a -165 3.5 team total. Carolina should have no problem getting to three goals by the third, so we may sweat this total a little, but they should be in a situation with a 2-3 goal lead. If they are in a three goal lead (3-0), getting the pull at the end may be hit or miss, but being in that position is always good to at least have the three goals. We do want Columbus to get on the board in this game but cap it at two, unless Carolina runs away with it, then it won’t matter. Carolina can play very tight sometimes and play low scoring 3-0 type games, so we should monitor this live if they don’t hit the team total by the 8 minute mark of the third. If it is 3-0 in the third with 10 minutes left then we may want to look at splashing the correct final score of 3-0 depending on the odds. Either way, this is one of my more favorable targets on the slate.
The Islanders are a lost cause team right now. There is just no leadership. As I mentioned in the Monday article, Brock Nelson is the best part of this team right now. His only line of 2.5 shots is -200 so playing 3.5 is the only true option. Detroit and the Islanders have some funny recent history. The winners of these games usually depend on who the worse team is. When Detroit was a top team in the league, they struggled with the Isles. When the Isles were the better teams in the league, they struggled with the Wings. Detroit is the better team here standings wise so I am going to splash a few props in this game on the Isles side. Noah Dobson is chasing the all time assists mark for the Isles so I will be splashing him to get on the stat sheet tonight as well as Nelson’s shot total. I feel this is a game the Isles should win if they play smart. Sorokin is the better goalie and the Isles can be a lot more of a physical team so I expect them to be able to put a few goals up. I will also be hitting their team total of 2.5 live. -175 is too high for me pregame so wait a few minutes into the first and let it get down to the -130 range. I see the Isles winning this one.
I am going back to the Panthers here and will be doubling down to get our losses back from the Buffalo matchup. Florida is quietly one of the best teams in the league and I feel they have been talked about very little. I loved this team before the Huberdeau trade because he was the major reason why I loved them, him and Barkov playing together. It took some time for Tkachuk to settle in and round this team out but it’s happened. I am going to be max playing their team total tonight and expecting a solid performance against a Montreal team they are 9-1 against in their last 10 scoring four or more goals in every win.
Last month we played the Lightning’s team total on the road against the Sabres and had it at three. The Bolts scored two goals 8 minutes into the game, and didn’t score again until they hit the empty net. This was an extremely frustrating push for us. I am going back to them tonight and laying the juice on the flat three. If you want to wait for live, or to play 3.5 you can, but as I mentioned in the opening of this article, I am going all in this month. I know it’s still February technically, but what’s a leap year anyway.
Arizona has lost 13 in a row and head into Toronto. These two met last week and lost 6-3. Toronto is coming off a loss to Vegas, so we are going to hope Arizona doesn’t build on that loss. I plan to go back to Auston Matthews tonight and play him a few ways. Matthews put up two goals so I will be splashing his points, goals, and shots tonight after being kept off the sheet against Vegas. Matthews is the Hart leading candidate right now at +180 and that line is even valuable to jump on. This is a matchup you need to just hope Arizona doesn’t find their legs and Toronto isn’t on a losing hangover from Vegas. Put the plays in and expect Toronto to do what they do.
Winnipeg vs. Dallas is a situation similar to Vegas and Boston. Two top teams that I don’t want any skin on. This is a matchup where getting it right is more of a proud moment than hitting value. I don’t h ate the game total of 5.5 but I’d rather the units in play elsewhere being that I want to play heavy tonight.
We missed on the over in the Minnesota/Nashville matchup last week. If you want to go back to it you can tail me on it, but if you want to lay off I wouldn’t be mad at you for it. With Gustavsson in net for Minnesota and Nashville holding onto the second wild card spot, I’m banking on Nashville to put up four goals tonight. You can get Nashville at -190 on the 2.5 line which is phenomenal that it’s even 2.5, but I worry the line wont drop fast enough to play it cheaper, so I will be hitting the game over and the total of three pregame. You can gamble on it dropping but I would at least splash three. If it does drop to 2.5 you can also add another unit or two to it. I do not see Nashville not getting to three minimum tonight. They are on the fence of being buyers or sellers at the deadline and they are overachieving at this point in the season. The Preds have stacked themselves for the next two drafts for three first round picks, four second round picks, three third round picks, and four fourth round picks. The Preds are in their own control right now. They can buy if they want to with thee capital they have, or sell and continue to rebuild an already achieving team. This will be a big win for them tonight and I want to be on it.
I always like when a team is coming off a loss to an underachieving team, and Chicago won their last meeting with the Avs in December. Justus Annunen is in net for the Avs and he has sucked. I love that we can get 5.5 here and the Avs total is -145. This is a potential ladder game but I know we don’t love ladders anymore. This will be another game I am playing double sided. Colorado should dominate this game and we should see a ton of scoring. Splash the ladder with me here the way I play it and if it doesn’t hit, we should have the winnings form 5.5 and the team total to cover it.
I am laying off Pittsburgh and Seattle. I don’t trust either team right now and with every other game I have written up, this game sounds like it will be an anomaly. My gut tells me there will be a lot of scoring in this one but in four of five meetings it has gone under. We can see how the earlier games pan out before touching this one but if we’re rolling we can hit the over 5.5 for small.
I am also passing on the next two games. I may update the article if something comes too but I have enough in order in the early slates.
March Madness is coming so if anyone plans to join the pool reserve your spots asap. I will also be putting out plays and write ups on the games I will be playing in the tourney. My process for March Madness is more analytical and statistical as opposed to how I approach NHL so I will notate why I am making each play. I will set up a bracket challenge for us as well as we get closer.
Official Bets:
- 7:08pm Florida Panthers Team Total over 3.5 -160: 5u
- 7:08pm Auston Matthews over 1.5 points +130: 1u
- 7:08pm Auston Matthews 2+ goals +450: .5u
- 7:08pm Auston Matthews 3+ goals +2000: .5u
- 7:08pm Toronto Maple Leafs Team Total over 3.5 -145: 2u
- 7:08pm Carolina Hurricanes Team Total over 3.5 -155: 2u
- 7:08pm New York Islanders Team Total over 2.5 -140 LIVE: 2u
- 7:08pm Brock Nelson (NYI) over 3.5 shots +115: .75u
- 7:08pm Noah Dobson (NYI) over .5 points -130: .5u
- 7:08pm Tampa Bay Lightning Team Total over 3 -140 LIVE: 2u
- 8:08pm Minnesota/Nashville over 5.5 -150: 2u
- 8:08pm Nashville Predators Team Total over 3 -125: 3u
- 8:08pm Nashville Predators Team Total over 2.5 LIVE -130: 2u
- 9:08pm Colorado/Chicago over 5.5 -155: 3u
- 9:08pm Colorado/Chicago over 8 +310: .5u
- 9:08pm Colorado/Chicago over 9 +625: 1u
- 9:08pm Colorado Avalanche Team Total over 3.5 -145: 3u
