Thursday MLB Pregame Plays 4/4

Cleveland vs Minnesota:

The wind says it’s blowing in close to 15 mph, pushing the totals down here. I like Minnesota at home against the Guardians and Bibee on the mound. The Twins’ total of 3.5 is a low cost of -140 with the wind factor. Pablo Lopez had one bad start against the Guardians last season, but I expect him and the Twins to get the win today. I approach the first two weeks of the season with my pre-season rankings and expectations and ride them until pitchers get a couple of starts and the weather gets better. Hedging is also very important, and in my opinion more important earlier in a season. If you take a side you should be hedging yourselves from bullpens.

Pittsburgh vs Washington:

I am making an important disclaimer here. Just because I am willing to lay juice to get a whole number lower on a total does not mean you have to. Yesterday was a tough loss in Pitt with the line but it’s not going to stop me from going back to it today. I expect to hit at a rate sustainable to lay juice and I have over the years. If books are going to allow me to pay up then I am going to. I feel paying up to get a whole run or run and a half, or goal,  cheaper than the pregame line significantly increases our win probability, and that is evident by the results at the end of the season. I have played this way for many years and had the same model last season when we finished the year up 77u. Now keep in mind because I know there will be some rebutted, but just because YOU chose not to follow all of the plays last season does not change the overall outcome of the content that was put out and why I have stressed for many many years to be here for the year and not just month to month. I also know not everyone has alt lines so 99% of the time I play alt lines on totals that I would play the pregame line on and if I wouldn’t than I’m sure you have seen me specifically indicate when I do not like a higher total above the alt line. If you do not want to tail the 3.5 -175 line here in Pitt, then please, as stated for years, play the higher total of 4.5 for less units. If you are decreasing your probability of winning by playing a higher total you should be decreasing your total risk. We have had two bad losses with the Rangers and yesterday’s game (Boston was a loss, we had bad luck with 4 double plays but that wasn’t a bad loss). We will not be targeting 5 and 10u plays often right now especially on lower tier teams in bad and cold weather so we won’t get in a habit of losing significant units on one game very often. I will however be targeting it in St. Louis with the cards playing Miami. With Perez and Gray on the mound I do expect the Pirates to rebound here offensively and get us back some of yesterday’s loss. We cannot let a loss from a day before stop us from going back to a projected win.

Official Plays:

  • 4:05pm Pittsburgh Pirates Team Total over 3.5 -175: 3u
  • 4:10 pm Minnesota Team Total over 3.5 -140: 3u
  • 4:10 pm St. Louis Cardinals Team Total over 3.5 -175: 5u
Author: Nightghost

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