Thursday Breakdown:
Florida still has an outside shot to win the division and a matchup against Columbus is a great opportunity to pick up another two points. Boston has the night off so a Florida win will put some added pressure on the Bruins next matchup against the Penguins, who themselves are fighting to claim the final wild-card spot. Boston’s remaining games are against Washington and Ottawa which helps Pittsburgh’s chances as well. This is a must-win for Florida if they want to catch Boston, and their twelve wins in their past fourteen matchups bodes well for them. Florida has scored less than four goals in only three of those fourteen matchups. This play will cost us as the 3.5 team total is -185. Catching it live will be difficult because the line should open at 4.5 live and jump up as a plus money line risking Florida scoring early and taking us off the 3.5 line. Florida hasn’t been playing great losing six of their last ten but this is a matchup they should help. Carter Verhaeghe (33G/38A) being out has been a big hit for their offense but they should have him back for the playoffs. Jet Greaves should be in net again and should struggle the more he plays to end the season. I expect Florida to take control of this game and run the score up to a 4-0 / 5-1 type game.
I will be laying off the Flyers/Rangers matchup. The Rangers can win the President’s Trophy but have Boston and Carolina on their heels, with Carolina still looking for a division win. Philly has lost 11 of their last 13 games and have free fallen furthers out of the playoffs. This is a division rivalry game but the Rangers have won ten of the last eleven. I don’t see any value in any lines on the Rangers and see this as a potential trap game for them. The Rangers will need to put up four goals for us to hit a team total and I just don’t feel confident enough in them doing that. If they do, so be it we can jump on their team total late in an empty net situation.
Normally we would be max playing the Red Wings/Penguins over, but this game is too important for both teams. I expect both teams to slow down the pace tomorrow and play cautiously. Pittsburgh is two wins behind Detroit but are tied in points, both one point out of the final wild card spot. These two have scored six or more in eight of their last night, but I’m hesitant this game ends in a 3-2 OT win for either team. I would like to see the Pens pull this one out but they make too many mistakes to be confident enough in them to dominate this game.
Tampa Bay may be the biggest threat to anyone in the playoffs and a matchup at home against Ottawa should produce goals. Tampa has an outside shot to take the third spot in the Atlantic division but one loss will eliminate that. I am more focused on Tampa keeping the momentum they have right now going into the playoffs to think they will slow down. These two teams like to play back and forth high scoring games and I expect that to continue here with Tampa playing with absolutely nothing to lose (other than injury) with a better standing to gain.
We will be on Toronto tomorrow and continue to attack the Devils against them. We hit on this total yesterday and will target Jake Allen again. Jack Hughes is out and the Devils continue to struggle losing five of their last six. Toronto has Tampa Bay on their heels but can also catch Florida for a chance to gain home ice against them in the first round. Toronto has a game in hand on Florida and play them the second to last game of the season.
Official plays:
- 7:07 pm Florida Panthers Team Total over 3.5 -185: 2.5u
- 7:08pm Ottawa/Tampa Bay over 6 -145: 2.5u
- 7:08 pm Toronto Team Total over 3.5 -135: 2u
Added Plays:
- 7:08 pm Flyers ML +170: 1u
- 7:08 pm Flyers Team Total over 2.5 -120: 2u
- 7:08 pm Ottawa/Tampa Bay over 6 -175: 3u added
- 10:08 pm Seattle Team Total over 3.5 -120: 2u
- 10:08 pm Shane Wright (SEA) Anytime goal +270: 1u
- 10:08 pm Shane Wright (SEA) 2+ goals +2500: 1u
