Tampa Bay vs. Columbus
It was Tampa Bay getting swept by Columbus years ago that propelled the Lightning to take the next step. They went on to appear in three straight cups, winning two of them. Tampa Bay has dominated this series as well since then winning nine of the last eleven. Vasilevskiy is still out, as well as Patrick Laine for the Jackets. I expect this game to be open, and high scoring. I love the Lightning on the team total but 3.5 might be pushing it. I want to keep our plays strict and to the point, so this is a play I will be keeping as an option depending on the rest of the slate.
Florida vs. Detroit
I don’t trust the Panthers right now. The Red Wings are coming off a come from behind win against the Islanders and return home to host a Panthers team that has seen high scoring games over the past two years. I expect tonight to be different. Detroit is top third in the league in goals per game, but Florida has played well defensively. Sergei Bobrovsky is playing well and James Reimer is a goaltender who I hate targeting the most. This game is priced to go over with the 6.5 total at -125 but I’m not buying it. I would much rather miss out on this game being a win than play the over and lose. I think this game will be tighter than expected. I don’t count out a 3-3 game so I will not talk anyone off playing the over, but this is not a game that I feel is a valued target. Florida is averaging less than three goals per game and we’re held in check by Boston. Detroit is not as good defensively as Boston is, but I prefer not to play Florida offensively with Sam Bennett and Aaron Ekblad still out. If you want to get fancy you can play under 7 in this game, but I will be passing on it myself.
Carolina vs. New York
You know when you’re watching superhero or monster movies and the two big bad characters meet face to face for their epic battle? And everyone else stays clear and lets them have their moment? That’s what you do here. Carolina has played ten games so far this season with seven of them being on the road. The Rangers have played nine games this season with seven of them being on the road. This is a Metro division battle for supremacy that we will see a few more times this season. These two alternate streaks against each other, and jostle for position on who’s better. The games are usually lower scoring, and Peter Laviolette is behind the bench for the Rangers facing off against the team he’s looking to dethrone from the division top and won a Cup with himself. This matchup is going to be phenomenal. If you want to put the betting aside, watch this game. Albeit, I think both teams will be a little tired and we will see better matchups between these two teams later in the season, but this game should be untouchable. The Rangers are coming off a successful, unbeaten, five game Western Conference road trip to host a Carolina team who has won their past three. Let these two battle and bloody each other for the top spot in the Metro and watch from afar. I think this will be a game Carolina wins, IF you need to have something on it.
Los Angeles vs. Ottawa
This game will be targeted for the over. It’s another game I am laying off. We lost last Thursday the way we did because I played the chalk. I played what was expected to happen and what should happen, and didn’t factor in regression. Tonight is a night I want to avoid repeating. This game will be one of the heavier played games and heavier touted game for the over. Again, there are times where I would much rather miss out on a win, then play something and lose. You lose nothing by not playing something. The Kings and Senators both have two of the higher powered offenses in the league right now, with both teams giving up an average of 3.25 goals per game. What I don’t like here is two teams from opposite conferences meeting for the first time in almost a year. The Kings are a West Coast team playing in Canada this week. They beat the Leafs in their last meeting and now travel to Ottawa. This is a matchup I can see being played at a much slower pace than expected and lag kicking in for the Kings. I like Joonas Korpisalo facing off against a Kings team that traded Jonathan Quick for him. Korpi went 7-3 with a 2.13 GAA for the Kings in 11 games last season. If this game goes over I can see it being a 5-2 type win for Ottawa. I’m passing.
Islanders vs. Washington
I like the Isles here at this price. The Isles are a much better team than the Caps to only be -120 favorites. SImply put, the Isles are a good, bad team. They will beat up on all the bubble, bottom dwelling teams, but lose the games against the tough playoff caliber teams. Washington is not a playoff caliber team. Semyon Varlamov will be in net for the Isles, and Darcy Keumper should be on the other side. This game can get wild, but the one thing I want is some Tom Wilson exposure. Wilson is a piece of shit, and the Isles and Caps have history.
Leafs vs. Boston
Leave this game for the birds. The Leafs are a game under .500 and have not started the past two seasons strong. Boston is coming off an inflated record against bad teams. I’m letting these two weak fucks battle in out in a rivalry game. If I was forced to play it I’d side with the team I think will be better long term and that’s Toronto.
Devils vs. Wild
Flat out not risking anything on either team here. We need to build off last night and touching this game is playing with fire. The game went over last week when these two met, and we hit our Devils team total and game total, so take those wins and run. This game looks like a game that would trend under for me and a game I prefer not to risk losing on.
Dallas vs. Edmonton
Mackenzie Blackwood should be in net with Jake Oettinger starting last night. Edmonton has Connor McDavid back and play at home. I like Stuart Skinner and trust him in net in this matchup. With Blackwood in net, I like Edmonton’s side. The team total is juiced at 3 -185 so this is a play you should look to target live, and save 30-40 cents by waiting a few minutes into the game. It’s not a game I love, but it’s a read I lean Edmonton. Dallas will be one of my favorite teams to bet on this season, but knowing when not to, and hit the other side is just as important, and after last night’s win, I believe this is the spot to target them.
Vancouver vs. San Jose
This will be our heavy target tonight. The money line looks right with Vancouver on the road, but I am surprised the totals are low. Vancouver could run the score up enough on their own to hit the 5.5 team total. Vancouver is top in the league offensively against a San Jose team averaging one goal per game and giving up almost four. The totals on this game are concerning me, but it should be a smash spot for a Vancouver team who has scored four or more goals in their last nine matchups, scoring five or more in six of them.
