Good Morning Everyone,
Needed a day off yesterday. Was happy about the Penguins but disappointed about the other plays, had to travel, and needed some sleep. We have a huge slate today but I’m going to be keeping plays tight. We’re going to kick it off at 12:38 with the Red Wings and Sabres. There are six current teams fighting for the last wild card spot. The Lightning are still catchable by the top half of those six teams but Buffalo need won’t. Buffalo can pull within two points of the Wings and Isles and the Wings can pull within two points of the Lightning and leap the Isles.
These two met four days ago in a ten goal affair that resulted in a 7-3 win for the Sabres. James Reimer gets the start for the Wings tomorrow. He was tagged for three goals in relief in that game. Dylan Larkin has been out for the Wings since March 2nd and the Wings are 2-9 without him. Buffalo is coming off a shutout win against the Isles Thursday night. The 5.5 line is juiced to -155 and the history between these two is screaming to smash the over.Â
So why aren’t we? I find it odd that this line opens up at only 6 -120. Every single one of these previous matchups opened at 6.5 or 7, but seven games into this matchup, James Reimer in net, and Buffalo coming off a shutout and the line is only 6? This is a game where if there’s early goals in the first period, I will jump on it live but am staying off the pregame because I feel it’s a trap. Everything about these lines scream trap and this is where I need to be smarter and better than to play it just to play it. Dylan Larkin is still out for the Wings and if Ukko gets that start tomorrow I want even less to do with this game. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen would arguably be a Vezina contender if he was on a true contender. We should know pretty early or even quick, whether this game is going over or not, and if it does we will adjust.
Ottawa and the Islanders kick off the other 12:38 game. The Isles have won seven of the last ten matchups and the Isles need to wake the fuck up if they want to get in the playoffs. They will tonight. The Isles are a -175 favorite and their team total comes in at three at -165 suggesting the books are telling us they expect an Isles win, but not convincingly enough where they don’t see the Sens pulling out a 4-3/4-2 type win. The Isles are on a two game losing streak in which they haven’t scored a goal. What I think happens here is that win or lose, the Isles offense gets back going and they score a minimum of three. This game will depend on how the Isles defense and Semyon Varlamov play. Varlamov is 7-7-3 with a 2.80 GAA this year and the Isles give up 3.32 GA/G and the Sens average 3.16 GF/G. These lines all line up and this is where we are betting on what I think will happen with the Isles offense. Bo and Barzal get back on track and the Isles are looking at three goals in the third with either an empty net opportunity or a chance with the extra attacker to tie and cash our play. I do not believe this is a play we will lose, but a play we may push.
We bought 13u on the Pens team total on Thursday and we have been playing this team pretty well. Tomorrow is a day we sell on them. The Pens looked absolutely horrible on the backend against the Sharks. They let an AHL Sharks lineup put up three goals on them and take the lead at one point. The books are buying into the Pens six goal win and expecting them to play well against a Rangers team that can argue themselves as being the best team in the league. Jonathan Quick most likely getting the start is why. The Rangers should win this game by multiple goals if Quick can play his role the -1.5 +165 is a nice payout for it. When you have Sid Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust, Krist Letang, Erik Karlsson, Jeff Carter, Rickard Rakell, Michael Bunting, and more you can afford to make mistakes against the current San Jose Sharks. What you can’t do is make those mistakes against the New York Rangers. The Rangers should capitalize on every mistake and we will pounce on these lines. The Rangers have won six of their last eight meetings with the Pens and scored four or more goals in five of those six wins. I will be playing this game pregame on the money line, pregame on the low cost team total of three, and hitting 2.5 live when it drops down to the cost of three pregame. Igor should get the night off and why these lines are where they are.
New Jersey broke out as the team their lineup says they are against the Stars. This was a game the Stars will lose as I’ve tried to point out in the past, and this win for the Devils is what they needed confidence wise. The Devils have an opportunity to follow it up with a matchup in Arizona and a chance to keep their playoff hopes alive. The books expect the Devils to give up goals and for this to be a back and forth game. Jake Allen is 8-3 in 12 games against the Coyotes with a 1.61 GAA and he’s expected to start tomorrow. I’m not sure what to expect out of Jake Allen at his age but I expect New Jersey to do their part with Connor Ingram expected in net. I will be playing all three metro teams in the early and afternoon slate and skipping the Lightning Panthers game.
There’s been a shift in power in the Lightning/Panthers rivalry. The Lightning are why the Panthers traded Jonathan Huberdeau. After the Panthers were swept by the Lightning they finally realized what I’ve been saying all along. That team was not mentally ready. The Panthers are mentally ready now. This team believes in themselves, they play for each other, and Sergei Bobrovsky is telling them he still has it and they can count on him to get them there this year. We bet this team to win the Cup for three years straight before the Huberdeau trade. This is the team I told you about and bet on as being the next powerhouse. I just thought Jonathan Huberdeau would be a part of it. As angry as I was for that trade and getting off of them last year, this team has won me back. I do feel Florida is still finding themselves in elite regular season matchups so I don’t find these games to be favorable to bet on.
The two other games I want are the Bruins and the Blue Jackets.
Boston should rebound at home against the Flyers. Philly was just torched at home against the Leafs and it will be Torts first game back since his two game suspension. Expect more chaos with the Flyers and for the Bruins to add to their six game win streak. I personally do not want to lay the price on any of these lines but if we can get Boston at 2.5 in the -150 range I more than likely will jump on it.
I expect San Jose and Columbus to both come out firing. San Jose has momentum after their three goal performance against the Pens and Columbus has only three goals in their last three games.
Official Plays:
- 12:38pm Islanders Team Total over 3 -165: 2u
- 3:08pm New York Rangers Team Total over 3 -140: 5u
- 3:08pm New York Rangers ML -145: 2u
- 5:08pm New Jersey Devils Team Total over 3.5 -115: 2u
- 7:08pm San Jose/Columbus over 6 -145: 3u
- 7:08pm San Jose/Columbus over 9 +525: 1u
