7/30 MLB Breakdown

Last night was a great night with a full sweep. There were a few more plays I would have liked to be on that hit but felt good with where we were. We will be on those plays tonight.

After hitting each of the totals yesterday, I will be laying off the O’s/Jays game. With Burnes on the mound for the O’s I do expect a win, but I do not prefer laying the -1.5 spread on home teams and the -225 ML is out of reach. I considered the 1st 5 line but there is a 68% chance of rain and the wind is blowing out over 10 mph. There are just too many variables here for me to be confident in manipulating an O’s win just to be on the game.

Giancarlo Stanton (2) and Juan Soto (3) have homered against Aaron Nola in their sample size against him. Three of the four players I mentioned in the article yesterday wound up homering (Vlad, Arozarena, Raleigh) so it is up to you if you want to mess around with any of the BVP props tonight. I will also be laying off this game pregame-wise with Will Warren pitching for the Yankees. Again, there’s a 33% chance of rain in this game with winds blowing out 13mph. I want to be concise today building off last night’s sweep.

Both the Rays and Marlins have been making moves at the deadline and with Tampa Bay being -175 I’d rather stay away from the juice as I’ve heard all of your concerns with laying juice so I have been more cognizant of it. The Rays have won 9 of 10 against the Marlins and with Edward Cabrera on the mound I do have interest in the Rays team total. The line opened at 3.5 -140 so if this game starts slow we may be able to grab 2.5 or even 1.5 live.

My biggest plays will be in the Mariners/Red Sox game. We hit on the Mariners team total yesterday but faded the game and Red Sox with Gilbert on the mound. He got shelled early and with the Sox putting up so many runs in bunches it became difficult to hit the team totals and gage it not having full eyes on it. The weather is very favorable in this game being in the mid 80’s and the wind blowing out 15 MPH. James Paxton was recently acquired by the Red Sox and will face his former team. I expect the Mariners bats to put up runs in the same fashion they did last night. I expect the weather to help Boston with Luis Castillo on the mound and for the Red Sox to be able to put a few one offs out. I don’t necessarily expect the Sox to string together 14 runs consistently throughout the game but both teams should contribute enough to the score to not only hit this total but ladder it up slightly. I will splash a few props in this game.

I’m shocked this line is only -120 for Texas to win the game especially with Max on the mound and Lance Lynn on the mound for the Cards. There is an even higher chance for rain in this game but the reports indicate it will either be passing, or start early enough and pass early enough for the lineups not to be affected. The one concern mentioned is how the field will hold up if the storm is that heavy. The wind has a light boost going out. I am going to follow suit on yesterday’s attack on the game and up the units for the 1st half as this game is build around supporting Max on the mound and attacking Lynn offensively.

Same model with Kansas City yesterday who had a very nice comeback to cover the 1.5 spread late in the game. 1 unit on them to cover it again today and this is truly betting against how bad the White Sox are and I will continue to do it until we lose multiple in a row.

My last game on the slate is my favorite day. Patrick Corbin day. Going against his former team who he did have a great game against earlier in the year. That won’t happen tonight. This game should be filled with runs and as mentioned earlier. The Nationals bats have been around league average this year with 4.28 runs per game so them contributing to the total against Ryne Nelson is why I will be on the game over. This is a game I wanted to be on last night but got too wrapped up in the rest of our games to play it. I like when these two play, especially in Arizona, and want to make sure we are on it tonight.

Author: Nightghost