UFL Week 1 Betting Breakdown

Sanaynay

March 27, 2024
3:35 pm

UFL Week 1

Birmingham @ Arlington – 1pm Saturday (3/30)

Birmingham is the best team in this league and deserves to be viewed that way until another team knocks them off. I don’t expect Arlington to do that here and I’m giving Head Coach, Skip Holtz, a major benefit of the doubt. I expect him to be head and shoulders above the competition for at least the first few weeks of the season. This team has consistently dominated and they have a large number of those players returning this year. I think Birmingham wins easily and even debated laying the 6 points. The Arlington Renegades looked in a rhythm and put up points once QB Luiz Perez joined their squad so that is my main hangup with laying almost a touchdown down in this league with how the rules are designed. But, due to that, I expect them to fly by their total and both teams to score 20+ and fully expect Birmingham to get in the endzone 4+ times.

St. Louis @ Michigan – 4pm Saturday (3/30)

St. Louis is another team that is towards the top of this league and one main reason is due to their QB play with AJ McCarron returning to play for the 2024 season. Another edge we have with St. Louis is their home-field advantage but unfortunately, that won’t be in play for this game. As I’m writing this article, I don’t have any heavy leans for this game but as we get closer to the weekend, I’ll have more time to dive in and I may come away with something so I will keep everyone posted with that. I expect this game to be a little bit slower and lower scoring off the jump which is why I don’t like the over pre-game. I don’t trust Michigan’s offense to come out firing either as they are based on a heavy ground attack while using that flow to play stern defense. St. Louis isn’t going to come out firing unless they are down, so this will turn into a clock-draining game in the trenches. Make sure to stick in chat if there is a play added here or something I find live.

DC @ San Antonio – 12pm Sunday (3/31)

In my opinion, DC is the second-best team in this league. The odds aren’t showing it or giving them enough respect which is why I am parlaying both Birmingham and DC to come away with victory. The reason this team is so good is because of the play they’ll get from QB Jordan Ta’amu, a player who just won the XFL Offensive Player of the Year award in 2023. With DC losing 2023 star RB, Abraham Smith, to a torn ACL during camp, they’ll need Ta’amu to be that player for them this year. I don’t think he’ll have an issue against Wade Phillips’ spongy defense in their opening game. Due to the San Antonio questionable defense, I think the Defenders are going to put up points but also on the flip side, I think the Brahmas offense is better than what people expect. Led by Offensive Coordinator, AJ Smith, this team is primed to throw the ball a TON. I’m excited about what Shane Gabers can do in this style of offense and the flow of this game will breed offense and points.

Memphis @ Houston – 3pm Sunday (3/31)

Memphis has my favorite offense in this league and they can score on anyone. As I went over in my preview article, Case Cookus has the right to be viewed as the best QB in this league. He is surrounded by a ton of talent, top to bottom. Their offensive line is a massive upgrade compared to what Cookus had to deal with in 2023 with the Stars and his playmakers are an upgrade as well as he’ll be throwing to Jonathan Adams and Daewood Davis, among others. He also has one of the best, if not the best, RB duos in the UFL between Darius Victory and Trey Williams. All of that combined with the play calling and scheme from John Defillipo has a recipe for a ton of points. The issue I have with them flat-out winning this game is the fact that the Houston Roughnecks (formerly the Houston Gamblers) are flat-out good. The Roughnecks have a solid defense but they should have success running it in this game even if Mark Thompson is unable to suit up. The line of 41.5 is just too low to pass up.

Official Plays: