UFL Week 5 Betting Breakdown

UFL Week 5

This week will be a little bit different and this may be the style I go with moving forward given that Fantasy Football writing is going to ramp up now that the NFL Draft has passed. I’ll be going over my bets and breaking them down like I will be doing during the NFL season. This allows me to pinpoint my actual process in why I think it happens and get to the point, saving everyone time. If you prefer the game by game breakdowns, please mention it in chat and I’ll go back to doing those. There is only five more full weeks after this one. 

DFS/PFF Ratings: UFL Week 5

Power Rankings

  1. Birmingham Stallions
  2. St. Louis Battlehawks
  3. San Antonio Brahmas
  4. DC Defenders
  5. Michigan Panthers
  6. Memphis Showboats
  7. Houston Roughnecks
  8. Arlington Renegades


  • BIRM/HOU o42 (-110): 3u – Draftkings
  • SA/ARL o42.5 (-110): 2u – Caesars
  • DC +3.5 (-110): 2u – Caesars

BIRM/HOU o42 (-110)

Adrian Martinez is back under center and should have no problems getting this Stallions offense moving. Last week we saw Mark Thompson come back for the Roughnecks. When Thompson was in the game and ran hard, the Roughnecks walked right down the field. Last week the Defenders had more success on the ground than the box score would show. They were able to have multiple drives gashing the Stallions down the field. As long as the Roughnecks give Thompson more than nine carries he had in Week 4, we’ll be in great shape. We realistically just need the Roughnecks to score two TDs and convert one two-pointer. Outside of that, there is no doubt in my mind that the Stallions are able to hang 30 on this Roughnecks defense. 

SA/ARL o42 (-110): 2u

I think both teams put up points here. The Arlington Renegades have given up an average of 25 points per game and this is on the back of only 17 against the Houston Roughnecks. In Weeks 1-3, they allowed 27 to Birmingham, 27 to St. Louis, and 29 to DC. On the back of AJ Smith’s comments this week, he has a lot of fire in him to go out there and light up the fucking box score. His quote is below:

“I can’t wait to play Arlington. I’ve had this game circled since they released the schedule. I could care less they’re 0-4, this is still my Super Bowl because of the crap they pulled in the playoffs last year. The fact that we have the opportunity to make them go 0-5 makes it even sweeter. I’ve played this Defensive Coordinator five times going back to 2020, nothing that they do worries me. We’re going after Donald Payne, and we can’t wait.”

Like, holy shit AJ Smith is bringing the heat. With that said, I have no concerns at all of San Antonio showing up with their A-game in this one. On the other side, I think Arlington will be ready. Prior to only scoring 9 last week, the Renegades averaged 22 points per game the prior three weeks, including 24 in Week 2 against St. Louis and 28 in Week 3 against DC. I’m chalking last week against Houston up as an anomaly game that just had a few weird bounces and never allowed Arlington to get in a flow. 

DC +3.5 (-110)

I’m not 100% sure that DC can fully pull off the upset but if they’re going to do it, it will be when the game is played in DC and not St. Louis. Both of these teams are among the few in this league who actually have a home field advantage. The Defenders will enter this game with a 2-2 record but in my opinion, they have firmly planted themselves within that top four of this league and should be considered in that range with the Battlehawks and Brahmas. Winning this game would make it difficult to not move them ahead of the Battlehawks in rankings. Last week, the Defenders almost (and should have) pulled off the upside in Birmingham over the Stallions. They were able to force timely turnovers and block a punt, putting the Stallions on their heels. They drove down the field with ease when they needed to and even compiled a quick nine play, 86 yard TD drive in only 3:49 in the first quarter of that game, ripping off chunk play after chunk play. One of the reasons I think they cover but may not win is because of how difficult St. Louis can be with AJ McCarron under center. They are never truly out of it and this is a game that I think we can attack a team coming from behind late if one is down by two scores, with both teams having the ability to score quick and in a 2-minute drill style of pressure. 


I’ll be watching live and may even add a little tomorrow night. Both games are on at seven again so I’ll be running it back being in chat and sweating both games. Don’t forget, the Stallions WILL win this game. Feel free to add them into any parlays. I don’t think the Roughnecks offer much of a threat this week. 

Author: Sanaynay

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