UFL Week 7

I’ll be tied up all of this weekend so live plays may not happen as much as usual. If I get a chance to tune in and see any plays that make sense, I’ll absolutely hit them but I won’t be pushing this week and it will be mainly pregame. 

DFS/PFF Ratings: UFL Week 7

Power Rankings

1. Birmingham Stallions
2. St. Louis Battlehawks
3. San Antonio Brahmas
4. Michigan Panthers
5. DC Defenders
6. Houston Roughnecks
7. Arlington Renegades
8. Memphis Showboats

Plays

MEM/ARL o45 (-110): 3u – Draftkings

Tyler Vaughns o47.5 Receiving Yards (-118): 2u – ESPNBet

Adrian Martinez o47.5 Rushing Yards (-118): 3u – ESPNBet

STL/BIRM o47 (-110): 2u – Caesars

Jordan Ta’amu u202.5 Passing Yards (-118): 3u – ESPNBet

MEM/ARL o45

Neither of these two teams can play defense while at the same time both offenses seem to be finding a little bit of a stride. The Showboats have scored 17 to 21 points in each of their last three games and all three games came against likely playoff teams with all three carrying the top 3 defensive grades in the UFL, per PFF. Last week, Memphis got into a little groove on offense, driving down the field multiple times before the Stallions pass rush got to the QB and destroyed their drives. Arlington brings in the 3rd worst pass rush grade (66.4) this week so I think the quick timing patterns and ground game will be effective enough to have consistent scoring drives throughout this game. On the flip side, Arlington comes into this game as 4.5 to 5 point favorites, depending on the book and are craving their first win of the season. Their defense won’t be good enough to stop Memphis consistently as I mentioned. I do expect them to win this game, and they’ll do it by scoring a lot of points in a shootout style game, having Luiz Perez lead them down the field in crunch time to pull off the win. 

Note: Both teams boast the worst defensive grades, per PFF. Memphis (61.2) / Arlington (60.5) and have given up the most points this year. Memphis (171) / Arlington (153). 

Tyler Vaughns o47.5 Receiving Yards

The Showboats have allowed seven WRs over the last three weeks eclipse 45 or more receiving yards. They have allowed 10 receiving plays of 20 yards or more as well over that span. Their defense is leaking big plays to opposing WRs and Vaughns has been getting through for the Renegades, who are poised to be favorites at home this week. One reason the Showboats are getting beat in the air for big plays has to do with their league low 52.3 coverage grade and league low 34.3 tackling grade, per PFF. On the season he has at least six targets in five of the six games and seven or more in four of the six. I like his chances in this one to not only make a big play but have plenty of chances to do so. 

Adrian Martinez o47.5 Rushing Yards

This is the biggest game of the year for both St. Louis and Birmingham. On the season, Martinez has made three starts, one game he didn’t play at all and two games he split snaps with Matt Corral. Over those five games where he has played, he has averaged six rush attempts for 64.8 rushing yards, topping 44 in four of the five games. He was leading the UFL in rushing yards before last week’s stomping of the Memphis Showboats, a game in which he threw for 369 yards. He now ranks second in the league with 327 rushing yards, behind only John Lovett (348) who has 248 rushing yards over the last two weeks. Also, in big games we see QBs have a subconscious nack to take off and run rather than throw the ball into a smaller window. He is going to see tighter coverage in this game than he is used to as the Battlehawks are playing great pass defense. With the Stallions at home and Martinez playing against the best defense he has faced this year, I expect him to rely on his legs upwards of 6-10 times here and he can break a 50 yard run at any moment.

STL/BIRM o47

I’m not going to lie, the data doesn’t suggest playing this over. However, I want a piece of it for pure entertainment reasons. Also, we have the two best offenses (BY FAR) in the UFL facing off. In these situations with well coached and well executed offenses, we see a high scoring atmosphere created. As I mentioned above, I’ll likely be busy unfortunately for most of this game with my daughter’s birthday party. If I get to watch it in the background and see both teams are having success on the ground and multiple chunk plays in the air, I’ll be wanting more on the over. 

Note: Same as both with Memphis and Arlington’s defenses. These two teams sport the best offensive PFF grades and have scored the most points.

St. Louis: (70.6 PFF Grade / 173 PF)

Birmingham: (73.9 PFF Grade / 171 PF)

Jordan Ta’amu u202.5 Passing Yards

Is this line drunk? This entire season Ta’amu has looked very bad and I hate to say it, washed. He has completed over 56% of his passes in a game just once, and that was last week against San Antonio. He hasn’t topped 188 passing yards in a game since Week 2 and hasn’t topped 24 passing attempts either over that span. The Defenders want to win by running the ball and honestly, that is the only way they are going to beat Michigan here. This game total is only 43 and the game is being played in DC, where DC plays much better. This is likely another low scoring, boring game where Ta’amu throws the ball less than 25 times without a ton of chunk plays to get him over 203 passing yards for the first time since Week 2. 

Author: Sanaynay