Top game stacks
CHI @ DET
MIN @ GB
DEN @ KC
Honorable Mention: ARI @ ATL
Justin Fields (Chicago Bears – $/$8,400)
Before his Week 16 dud of 9.86 points, Fields was the QB1 in fantasy football during the weeks spanning Week 7 through Week 15, averaging 28.9 points per game. As I mentioned last week, he had scored at least 19.26 in every game before facing Buffalo. This week he will face off against the Detroit Lions in a game played inside on turf, and he faces a team he dropped 39.38 points on in Week 10. Fields had 147 yards rushing and two scores in that game, with 167 yards on 12 of 20 passing with two more passing scores. He dominated them in a game the Bears lost 31-30. His ownership won’t be an issue on this slate, so he is by far my QB1.
Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs – $/$9,000)
These two teams just played as recently as Week 14 when Mahomes and the Chiefs took down the Broncos in an unexpectedly high scoring affair, 34-28. Mahomes threw the ball 42 times, completing 28 of them for 352 yards and three scores. He did throw three interceptions, but I don’t expect that to happen again. Mahomes has scored 32.74 and 23.76 in the two games since then and has had at least 320 yards passing in eight of the Chiefs last 10 games, with two of them topping 420. Mahomes is trying to solidify another MVP award and the Chiefs are fighting for the one seed in the AFC. They will go all out and try to bury the Broncos early. If the Broncos can keep pace, this game could get insane.
Honorable Mention: Jared Goff (DET), Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Desmond Ridder (Atlanta Falcons – $5,000/$6,300)
Ridder looked solid in Week 16 in a vacuum against a good Baltimore Ravens defense. He threw the ball 33 times, completing 22 of them for 218 yards with no scores. He ran the ball four times but got only eight yards on those rushes against a good Baltimore Ravens defensive front, so that isn’t exactly surprising. This week he faces off against the Arizona Cardinals. Nothing in particular stands out in this game and honestly the cheap QBs aren’t desirable this week. I won’t be diving down here, but with Ridder we have both rushing and passing upside. At his price tag, if he can get 30-40 rushing yards and fall into the endzone, he is going to pay off big time.
Tyler Allgeier (Atlanta Falcons – $5,300/$6,700)
Allgeier has taken over as the bonafide 1A for the Atlanta Falcons. In Week 16, he out-snapped Patterson 42 (59.2%) to 26 (36.6%). Since the Falcons’ bye week, Allgeier has seen 35 carries to Patterson’s 24 and six targets to Patterson’s four. Allgeier has scored 22.6 and 15.7 PPR points over those two games. This week he will face off, at home, against the Arizona Cardinals and the Falcons are 3.5 point favorites as I am writing this. Arizona has the fifth worst rush DVOA on the season and has given up the most PPR points per game to opposing backs since Week 8.
Saquon Barkley (New York Giants – $8,000/$9,200)
Barkley is so close to an eruption spot and this could be the day. The Giants are fighting to hold on to a wild card spot and make the playoffs in Brian Daboll’s first year as the Giants head coach. Over the last two games, Barkley has seen 18 targets, catching 13 of them for 82 scoreless yards. These are just added on points in PPR leagues on top of his 171 rushing yards with two scores he has had on the ground over those two games. He has scored 50.3 PPR points in that span and has a juicy matchup against the Colts this week. Over the last six games, the Colts have given up the eighth most receptions to RBs on a per game basis and the fifth most rushing yards per game at a 4.8 YPC.
Zonovan Knight (New York Jets – $5,100/$6,400)
Knight burned us good last week as Zach Wilson’s Jets got embarrassed on TNF. Knight ran the ball only six times for -2 yards. In the two games that Zach Wilson started, Knight scored 2.3 PPR points in each of them. This is without a doubt a byproduct of how terrible Zach Wilson is as a QB. In the three games prior where Mike White was the QB, Knight touched the ball at least 17 times in each of those three games and scored at least 13.3 PPR points in each of them, with only one TD as a crutch. He accumulated at least 69 yards in each of those games and saw at least two targets in each of them. Since Week 7, the Seahawks have given up the most PPR points on a per game basis to opposing RBs. They have been beaten across the board by backs, from getting torn up on the ground and through receptions. They also have the seventh worst rushing DVOA over the course of this NFL season.
D’Andre Swift (Detroit Lions – $5,300/$7,100)
I like Swift better on Draftkings than Fanduel to get the better cost savings and the full point per reception. Last week Swift took 56.1% of the Lions backfield snaps. This could be because of Jamaal Williams seeing a third quarter injury, but on the flip side Justin Jackson took 21.2% of the snaps and I think that number jumped up because of Jamaal being injured. Over the last five games, Swift has seen target counts of eight, six, four, nine, and five. He has caught at least three balls in three of those five games. I’m not sure anyone can explain what happened last week against the Panthers, other than the Lions got dominated at every level. This week their opponent is the Chicago Bears, who have leaked fantasy points to opposing RBs giving up the ninth most since Week 11 and giving up a 5.8 YPC over that time frame and an average of five receptions for 38 yards. This play is predicated on Swift seeing 50%+ of the snaps again and I think by now we all know the risks that come along with playing Swift, only to see Jamaal Williams and Justin Jackson take snap after snap.
Brian Robinson (Washington Commanders – $5,200/$6,900)
Antonio Gibson has been ruled out of the Commanders Week 17 matchup against the Browns. Even with Gibson healthy, Robinson has seen rush counts of 26, 15, 18, 21, 12, and 22 since Week 10. In those games, he has run for at least 57 yards in every single one and has scored double digit PPR points in all but two of them. The two games he didn’t score over 11.7, he faced the Texans and the 49ers. I don’t have a reason why he didn’t destroy the Texans but the 49ers are one of the best rush defenses in the NFL and he was bottled up to only 58 yards on 22 carries (2.6 YPC). However, without Gibson, Robinson could easily top 25 carries in this game. The Commanders use him as a workhorse and his matchup this week is a good one. The Commanders need to win out to hold on to their wild card spot and their recipe for success has been on the ground. Robinson seeing 25-30 touches is in the cards with all of the goal line carries and a few targets with the absence of Antonio Gibson.
Honorable Mention: Dalvin Cook (MIN), Zack Moss (IND)
JaMycal Hasty (Jacksonville Jaguars – $4,500/$5,100)
Keep an eye on this situation. If Etienne misses this game, Hasty becomes a great dart throw. I still think that Hasty will out-snap and touch Etienne even if Etienne is active as the Jaguars gain nothing by winning this game. If Etienne is out, I would place Hasty even above the value tier and up with Brian Robinson. The Texans have gotten better against the run but even since Week 11, they have given up the eighth most PPR points to opposing backs on the legs of 116 rushing yards per game at a 4.5 YPC clip.
Royce Freeman (Houston Texans – $4,600/$5,900)
Last week Royce Freeman saw 55.2% of the Texans offensive snaps in what was a neutral to positive game script the entire game. This was up from 38.1% that he ran in Week 15. Over these two games, Freeman has run the ball 11 and 16 times, totalling 73 yards with only 32 coming against the Titans in Week 16. This isn’t exactly surprising as the Titans have one of the best rush defenses in the NFL. Flip the script this week and the Jaguars have given up the 16th most PPR points to opposing backs since Week 10. With this being a neutral script and the increased chances of the Jaguars resting their players in the second half, Royce should see 15+ touches and all of the goal line carries.
Tyreek Hill (Miami Dolphins – $8,900/$9,000)
Tyreek Hill has played two games with Teddy Bridgewater as the main QB. Those games were Weeks 4 and 6. In Week 4, Tyreek Hill saw 14 targets against the Cincinnati Bengals, catching 10 of them for 160 scoreless yards. In Week 6 against the Minnesota Vikings, Hill saw 15 targets, catching 12 of them for 177 scoreless yards. This week he will face off against the New England Patriots with Bridgewater at QB. It may not seem like it because the Patriots DST has been balling and the Patriots are known for their defense, but they have given up the sixth most PPR points per game to opposing WRs since Week 10. In Reek’s history against the Patriots, he has averaged 9.2 targets per game, catching 6.4 of them for 99 yards and a score per game. This year when the Dolphins faced the Patriots in Week 1, Reek caught eight of his 12 targets for 94 yards without a score. It is worth noting that four of those five games were with the Chiefs rather than the Dolphins. However, I think Tyreek Hill is set to smash in this spot and see a ton of volume against a beatable secondary.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions – $7,800/$8,200)
Don’t overthink this one, especially on Draftkings. This game has the highest total on the slate by a wide margin and, as you saw above, I really like this game. I wouldn’t worry about ownership at all for ARSB because we will certainly find a ton of sub 10% guys across this slate. The last time ARSB faced the Bears in Week 10 he caught 10 of his 11 targets for 119 scoreless yards. That alone gives ARSB a 3x return on Draftkings even without a TD. With the Lions having the highest team total on the slate of 29.5, Vegas thinks the Lions score 4+ TDs giving ARSB an increased chance of getting back into the endzone.
Drake London (Atlanta Falcons – $4,900/$6,700)
London has been seeing targets at an elite rate over the last three games. Over that span, he has seen 32 targets with at least nine in each of the three, catching at least six balls for 70 yards in each of them. He has scored 15.5, 12, and 14.6 PPR points across that span with no TDs at all to prop up the numbers. The matchup isn’t the best on paper. Since Week 10 the Cardinals have given up the 11th fewest PPR points per game and on the season they have the No. 1 DVOA against opposing teams WR1s. However, at his price tag and the volume he is seeing, along with Vegas thinking the Falcons score three TDs, I like London to get double digit targets and have an increased chance of getting his first TD since Week 11.
Chris Moore (Houston Texans – $4,200/$5,600)
Chris Moore’s salary is still suppressed now that Brandin Cooks has returned. Last week Cooks did out target Moore nine to four, but Moore ran more routes and was on the field for more snaps. With Cooks back, Moore stepped inside to the slot and ran 68.6% of his snaps from the slot in Week 16. The Texans are playing better ball as of late and will face the Jaguars who have given up the most PPR points per game to the slot since Week 10. As I mentioned above with Royce Freeman, we have the possibility that the Jaguars rest their starters in the 2nd half of this game given it means absolutely nothing to the Jaguars so Chris Moore should be running routes against the Jaguars backups.
Jerry Jeudy (Denver Broncos – $6,400/$7,000)
Over his last three games Jeudy has seen at least eight targets in all three games and back in Week 14 had an eruption spot against this very same Chiefs defense, catching eight of his nine targets for 73 yards and three TDs, which was good for 33.3 PPR points. I don’t expect Jeudy to go back out there and drop another three TD performance, but I do think he is in line for another seven- or eight-reception game and creep close to the 100-yard mark with a heightened chance at another score. It is worth noting that Jeudy is questionable with an ankle injury. I think he goes but keep an eye on it as the week gets closer to Sunday. If he misses, I like pivoting to Sutton in this spot.
Honorable Mention: Justin Jefferson (MIN), Chris Godwin (TB)
Dante Pettis (Chicago Bears – $3,700/$5,200)
Since Week 12, Pettis has been the slot WR for the Chicago Bears, seeing at least two targets in each of those games and most recently having four targets in Week 15 against the Eagles and five targets in Week 16 against the Bills. Facing the Lions in Week 17, he will have the best matchup he’s had all season long and should see another four to five targets in this one. With having a ton of space and Fields likely forced to throw more, Pettis should easily be able to return his value on Draftkings. He will return his value on Fanduel if he scores a TD.
NOTE: I wouldn’t be opposed to Velus Jones either if you need to save that extra little bit of salary. They scheme up a play or two for him every game and he is coming off of his highest target total of his rookie year with four against Buffalo.
Greg Dortch (Arizona Cardinals – $3,000/$5,300)
So I’m going to start this off by saying you need to understand that there is a ton of risk with Dortch this week. Dortch has played four games with Colt McCoy as his QB and he has seen an absolute goose egg in three of those four games with McCoy. Zero targets. The other game? Ten targets, catching nine of them for 103 scoreless yards and 19.3 PPR points. The reason why I don’t think he is going to put up a goose egg is because the Arizona Cardinals are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury is as good as gone and there is a better chance that Dorch gets a chance to show the NFL he belongs here rather than the WRs on this team who have already been paid. Last week Dortch saw 11 targets from Trace McSorley and if McSorley was starting this game, I would be all over Dortch. However, it is McCoy. So understand with Dortch that with the cost savings you take he isn’t going to kill your lineup if he posts a zero, but he is going to shoot it forward if he drops another 20-point performance.
NOTE: David Blough has been announced as the starter after this article was written. I’m still on Greg Dortch this week. He is going to continue to take the slot snaps for this offense and by scheme, it breeds targets. David Blough isn’t the best of QBs and has bad accuracy but he has a strong arm. The price and what Dortch’s ceiling offers is too tough to pass up if I need a punt.
Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs – $8,100/$8,300)
The only other TE on this slate who can break it is George Kittle. Since Week 10, the Broncos have given up the third most PPR points per game to opposing TEs, with 15.8 per game and the most receiving yards per game to them with 79 per game. As I mentioned above with Mahomes, the Chiefs aren’t going to give any ground against the Broncos. They will go balls to the wall in this one and won’t risk the Broncos upsetting them at home.
Jelani Woods (Indianapolis Colts – $2,800/$4,700)
Woods saw five targets last week with Nick Foles as the QB. The Chargers are a solid team against the TE but the middle of the field is where Foles excels and is more comfortable. He ended up catching three of those five targets for 43 scoreless yards. This week he faces off against the Giants who have been bottom 10 in guarding the TE all season long. Since Week 10, they have given up the fourth most PPR points to the position with 14.5 per game. With the Giants being 5.5 home favorites over the Colts, and the Giants blitzing at the highest rate in the NFL, I expect Foles to have a lot of quick passes to his TEs in this one with Woods being the main beneficiary.
Honorable Mentions: Cole Kmet (CHI), George Kittle (SF)
Tyler Conklin (New York Jets – $2,900/$4,900)
Conklin gets to face off against the Seahawks this week with Mike White as his QB. The three games that White has started this year, Conklin has seen target counts of three, seven, and eight. He had a tough time against Minnesota in Week 13, catching only two of his targets but in Week 12, he caught all three of them for 50 yards. He has scored only 8, 2.9, and 7.8 in those three games, but the volume is there. I love this play especially on Draftkings with the full PPR point and his salary being only $2,900. Since Week 6, the Seahawks have given up the 11th most PPR points per game to the position, but it is worth noting that the last two weeks against George Kittle and Travis Kelce they gave up 4/93/2 on five targets to Kittle and 6/113/0 to Kelce on eight targets. A 3/36/1 stat line gets the job done for Conklin.
San Francisco 49ers ($2,900/$5,000)
The absolute only reason I can envision why the 49ers are only $2,900 on Draftkings is because whoever created those salaries thinks the 49ers are flying Southwest. It is criminal how low they are and should be locked into every lineup. I don’t care if Nick Bosa only plays half of the game (I expect him to play his normal snaps) or if they play some backups. They are facing a disgruntled Raiders team who just threw their QB under the bus and their star WR is pissed. They are trotting out Jared Stifham who is a far cry from Carr. Their offensive line is garbage and the 49ers have the best defense in the NFL. Sign me up.
New England Patriots ($2,600/$4,000)
The Patriots defense is priced at its floor. I don’t hate Teddy Bridgewater for this offense and I think they will be OK, but he is a cautious QB who is going to take sacks. The Patriots have scored at least 11 DST points each of the last three weeks with scores of 20, 11, and 14 against the Cardinals, Raiders, and Bengals. They have a DST TD in each of those three games. They have a nice floor and the ability to take advantage of offensive miscues. Low ownership and low cost, they are a great play for DFS.
Houston Texans ($2,500/$3,100)
If I don’t pay up for San Francisco, I am saving money with the Houston Texans. They have been playing solid ball of late, even if the scores don’t show it. Their defense has scored at least five points in each of the last four games while facing good offenses such as the Cowboys and the Chiefs. They are coming off of a 17-point performance against the Titans where they had two picks and four sacks along with a defensive score. They are at home against their divisional opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars have nothing to play for in this matchup. Doug Pederson has been stern that his players are playing, but I think they play only in the first half. If they do play the entire game, fine, the play is still solid. But if they play only a half, this play becomes a good one. That’s the gamble we take in GPPs though.