Week 18 Sunday Betting Breakdown

Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. Also, I’ll be making my favorite plays official bets but I’ll also list the plays I am playing for fun or any plays that just didn’t make the cut at the bottom. As always, let me know if you want any clarity on anything in discord. 

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Sanaynay9 

Disclosure: How I bet

Betting log: Betting Results (+139.72)

Sunday

1pm

Nick Mullens o257.5 Passing Yards (-115): 5u – MGM

Nick Mullens 325+ Passing Yards (+500): 2u – Draftkings 

**Nick Mullens 350+ Passing Yards (+630): 1u – Fanduel (ADDED 1/7/24 @ 7:37am)

**Nick Mullens 375+ Passing Yards (+1050): 2u – PointsBet (ADDED 1/7/24 @ 7:37am)

Justin Jefferson o84.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – Draftkings

Justin Jefferson 120+ Receiving Yards (+255): 2u – Draftkings

**Justin Jefferson 155+ Receiving Yards (+600): 2u – PointsBet (ADDED 1/7/24 @ 7:37am)

**Justin Jefferson 170+ Receiving Yards (+1100): 2u – PointsBet (ADDED 1/7/24 @ 7:37am)

**ADDED (1/7/24 @ 10:43am)
KJ Osborn o26.5 (-115): 3u – Draftkings (all on DK)
KJ Osborn 50+ Receiving Yards (+330): 1u
KJ Osborn 60+ Receiving Yards (+550): 1u
KJ Osborn 70+ Receiving Yards (+850): 2u
Jordan Addison 95+ Receiving Yards (+800): 1u – PointsBet
Jordan Addison 110+ Receiving Yards (+1500): 1u – PointsBet

4pm

Justin Fields o51.5 Rushing Yards (-114): 3u – Fanduel

Zamir White (TBD)

**ADDED (1/6/24 @ 6:52am)

Austin Ekeler 110+ Rushing & Receiving Yards (+500): 2u – Fanduel

8pm

Tyreek Hill o91.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 3u – Draftkings

Gabe Davis 80+ Receiving Yards (+800): 1u – PointsBet

Gave Davis 90+ Receiving Yards (+950): 2u – Draftkings

Breakdown

1pm

Nick Mullens / Jefferson

I don’t want to get cute here so I’m zeroing in on Mullens and Jefferson rather than trying to shotgun it like I’ve done in the past with the Cowboys receiving group. This is a re-up of what we attacked last Saturday night with the Cowboys offense in this matchup. I’m not going to try and come back and predict who on the Lions is going to get playing time and the touches but this is going to be a high scoring game and I think the Vikings passing game has a ton of success plus a passing game script in their favor. We were all screaming at the tv last Sunday night as we watched Jaren Hall for a half but this time we have a full game of Nick Mullens. To summarize why I was so high on the Cowboys passing attack last week against this Lions defense is because they have been atrocious this year and even more so since Week 7. Over that span, the Lions now lead the league in yards per attempt (8.75) given up to opposing passing QBs and are 5th in the NFL in passing yards (271) per game overall. Just two weeks ago Nick Mullens shredded this very same Lions defense to the tune of 411 yards on only 22 completions. In the two games that Mullens has started he has thrown for 714 yards with a 10.35 yards per attempt. The reason that Kevin O’Connell benched Mullens was his inability to secure the football as he had eight turnovers in those two games and specifically six against this same Lions defense. Even with Kirk Cousins dropping down this year to injury, the Vikings still rank 6th in the NFL with a 2.5% pass rate over expectation and have the 5th highest pass rate (66%) in the NFL. We have a great mixture of matchup to go with game script and volume. I’m going to be playing all four of these WRs and some alt lines personally but not officially. You can check those out at the bottom with the unofficial lines. 

Justin Jefferson

Since I went over a lot of the passing attack above, I’ll keep it brief here. The reason I like Jefferson above else is the pure fact he is the alpha and best WR on this team, probably the NFL. Over the two games with Mullens at QB, Jefferson has kept his volume, seeing a 30% target share and 10 targets in each game to go with a 97% route participation. Just two weeks ago in that game against the Lions, Jefferson caught six of those 10 targets for 141 yards and a score with another deep ball just out of his grasp that Mullens missed him on. In the seven games that Jefferson has played against the Lions, he has dominated. He has two duds, games in which he didn’t top 65 receiving yards but the other five games he has dominated. All in all, he has averaged 7.1 receptions on 9.9 targets for 125.9 yards per game. In the five games he has dominated, he has at least 124 yards in all five of them and has topped 180 twice. I can’t emphasize enough how poor this Lions pass defense is and how much Jefferson is going to dominate this game. 

4pm

Justin Fields

Fields has been a beast on the ground ever since he returned from his thumb injury in Week 11. Over that span (six games), he has averaged 11.5 rushing attempts for 65.5 rushing yards (5.7) per game and has topped 58 rushing yards in four of those six games while also topping 95 rushing yards in two of them. The two games he didn’t hit were against the Cleveland Browns in Week 15, which was a game unfortunately we had bet on him to have over 10.5 rushing attempts (he ended with seven) and in Week 17 against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons overall did a solid job holding him in line, keeping him to only 45 rushing yards on 11 attempts but this is the floor here. The Packers have allowed the 3rd most rushing yards (380) to opposing QBs this year and have allowed pop games to QBs who are mobile. In Week 1, Fields ran for 59 yards on nine attempts, Week 2 Desmond Ridder ran for 39 yards on 10 attempts, Week 11 Justin Herbert Ran for 73 yards on eight attempts, and Tommy Devito ran for 71 yards on 10 attempts in Week 14. If you cut down the last three games when the Packers played Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, and the combination of Jaren Hall and Nick Mullens, they jumped to the most rushing yards (355) allowed to opposing QBs in the NFL from Week 1 through Week 14. Justin Fields is fighting for his NFL future here and the Bears are doing everything they can to showcase him in the same process. This team has rallied behind him and even though I’m 99% sure he is gone after this season with the Bears holding the top pick in the draft, he isn’t going down without a fight. 

Zamir White

We’ve attacked the Denver Broncos rush defense the last two months and this weekend is no different. They are giving up the 6th most rushing yards (1,404) since Week 4 in the NFL to go with the highest yards per carry (5.1) and have the 30th ranked rush DVOA in the NFL on top of that. On the Raiders side, we have attacked with Zamir White recently and it is due to volume. Antonio Pierce is the most candid Head Coach in the NFL and doesn’t beat around the bush. He tells it how it is and tells you what he wants to do, and that is pounding it down your throat and playing tough defense. They have been able to do that. With Josh Jacobs out over the last three weeks, Zamir White has seen at least 17 carries in each of the three games with 59 in total. He has run it for 285 yards on those 59 carries and has one score. His underlying usage also lines up with that as he has taken 70% of the offensive snaps and 74% of the team’s rushing attempts. What is surprising is that he has a 54% route participation and the fact he has a 10% target share in two of those three games. They are using Zamir White as a bell cow with Jacobs out and I expect that to continue in Week 18. I also want to note that I think the Raiders are coming to play in this game. The locker room supports Antonio Pierce and they are going out with a bang. Due to this, I think the game script falls in line with Zamir White to get the touches on the ground more so than in the air. With that said and this matchup, Zamir is going to ball out to end the season. 

8pm

Tyreek Hill

I don’t give a shit how “tough” the matchup is, anytime you give me double digit targets for Tyreek Hill, I’m taking the over. The expectation is that Jaylen Waddle is going to miss at least one more game as he gets ready for the playoffs, leaving Tyreek Hill as once again the main target hog. Over the last two games with Waddle missing the majority of Week 16 and all of Week 17, Reek has 26 targets which is good for an insane 37% target share. Even though the Buffalo Bills have played better defense of late, they aren’t too far removed from getting torched on defense by opposing WRs. Over the last three weeks they have faced the Chargers, Patriots, and Cowboys. It is obvious both the Patriots and Chargers are trotting out no one at WR and are easily shut down. However, they managed to keep CeeDee Lamb in line with only 53 receiving yards on 10 targets. The reasoning behind that was due to the Bills ability to massively control the clock mixed with the Cowboys playing much worse on the road (specifically Dak Prescott) and the game was played in Buffalo whereas Sunday’s game with Miami will be played in Miami. Prior to that, they were beaten by Rashee Rice for 72 yards and a score on 10 targets and DeVonta Smith for 106 yards on 8 targets and a score. They also have a couple other spike weeks they have allowed this year to Tee Higgins (9/8/110/0) in Week 9 and Calvin Ridley (8/7/122/0) in Week 5. I want to be transparent though because this Bills defense has allowed the 6th fewest receiving yards to opposing WRs this year at only 128 per game. However, I don’t think it is going to matter in this one. We are in a game that the Dolphins want to win to secure the division and they are at home. Also, after getting trounced by the Ravens in Baltimore they are going to need to boost their confidence. And while I do think the Dolphins win, Vegas thinks they lose and the Dolphins are 3-point underdogs in this game at home. If Vegas is right, this leads to a pass happy script for the Dolphins, leading to a few more targets later in the 4th to push us over the edge. 

Gabe Davis

I’ve always tried to be as transparent as possible when it comes to why I am playing what I am playing and this is a play that I feel needs that. This comes with a lot of “feeling” here that this is a pop Gabe Davis game. When Davis demolished the Chargers, I had gone into it with that mindset and ended up with a ton of data to support it and we SMASHED that play as Gabe went for 130 yards and a score. This one, we don’t have much data I can throw on this sheet to convince you to play this play other than the fact Gabe Davis is the ultimate boom or bust play. The Miami Dolphins are a defense that has played exceptionally well since star DB, Jalen Ramsey, returned from his injury. Well, this was because their defensive backfield became full and well rounded. They were able to have Ramsey locked down the opposing WR1 and it forced the complimentary pieces to win. They had recently been unable to do that because Xavien Howard himself is a top tier CB opposite of Ramsey. Howard got hurt against the Ravens in Week 17 and is expected to miss this game. This is EXACTLY what Gabe Davis excels at. When Gabe Davis pops, he pops. He is either going to have 15 yards or 100. Over his last six games, Gabe Davis has three games of 0 catches and another game with only two for 21 receiving yards. The other two games? 105 receiving yards and 130 receiving yards on 10 total receptions. I want the ceiling lines pre-game and then if he gets hot early, we know he is going to have a ceiling game so I’ll be hitting him live rather than loading up pre-game on his set line. Feel free to hit his pre game line if you can’t get live because I do think this is a Gabe Davis pop game.

Unofficial Leans

Jordan Addison o49.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – Draftkings

KJ Osborn over Receiving Yards (TBD) – **Added above as an official play 

Kenneth Walker o55.5 Rushing Yards (-120) – MGM

Kenneth Walker Longest Rush o14.5 (-120) – Draftkings

Saquon Barkley o59.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – Draftkings

James Conner o70.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – MGM

Outright Winner Predictions

ATL over NO

JAX over TEN

CIN over CLE

MIN over DET

NE over NYJ

TB over CAR

CHI over GB

DAL over WAS

LV over DEN

LAC over KC

SF over LAR

PHI over NYG

SEA over ARI

MIA over BUF