Week 5 is a tough slate. We don’t have any games with a total of 50 or higher and only one at 49 with the next closest being 47.5 I want to remind everyone that I gear all of my content towards GPPs and tournaments. I aim for the moon on these plays and the goal is to come in first. We want ceiling outcomes so that is weighed heavily with ownership levels.
Top game stacks
TB @ ATL
TEN @ WAS
PHI @ ARI
*Bonus stack: MIA @ NYJ (See Bridgewater write up)
Tom Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,000/$7,800)
Amid divorce rumors, I expect Tom Brady to bring his A-game in this divisional matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. Brady’s weapons are all getting healthy and coming back at the same time. Brady’s weapons sport a group of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Justin Gage, and Julio Jones. Last year in two games, Brady threw for 644 yards and 9 TDs against a very similar Falcons defense.
Carson Wentz (Washington Commanders – $5,700/$6,800)
As I mentioned last week with the Colts receiving group, the Titans are one of the worst teams in the NFL at guarding on the perimeter. This happens to be where Carson Wentz excels the most. Even last week in a losing effort, the statue of Matt Ryan had all the time in the world against this Titans defense throwing for 356 yards with a YPA of 9.62. As long as the offensive line can hold off the Titans pass rush of Simmons and Autry from the right side, Wentz should be able to feast in this one.
Honorable Mention: Jameis Winston (NO) *Or Andy Dalton, Jalen Hurts (PHI)
Teddy Bridgewater (Miami Dolphins – $5,400/$6,400)
Bridgewater is one of the best backup QBs in the NFL. He is equipped with one of the best supporting casts at the WR position in the NFL as well with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins are coming off of a week and a half of rest to prepare for the division rival New York Jets. With Zach Wilson under center, I think the Jets can score enough points to push the Dolphins to continue to throw above expectation. The best part of saving money with Bridgewater is being able to stack him with Reek and Waddle. I would go with Corey Davis or Tyler Conklin to bring back on the Miami stack.
Nick Chubb (Cleveland Browns – $8,000/$9,400)
The Chargers, once again in 2022, are getting slashed on the ground. In 2021, they were the worst run defense in the NFL. So far in 2022, they have given up the highest YPC (6.1) and the ninth most rushing yards overall which includes a 75-yard TD from Pierce in Week 4. They have been hit for the fourth most receptions from the position and 7th most receiving yards. Nick Chubb is second in the NFL in rushing yards and is also second in the NFL with 5 rushing TDs. As I mentioned last week, Chubb is the centerpiece of the Browns offense. Even if the Chargers get out to an early lead, the Browns are going to ride Chubb until the final minutes of the game even if they are down multiple scores.
Damien Harris (New England Patriots – $5,600/$7,200)
I think this game script is going to mesh well for Harris’s outlook this Sunday as the Patriots are 3 point favorites at home. In a play that certainly no one will go to, Harris is set up to smash. Harris is still the early down and goal line back for the Patriots with Stevenson mixing in for the receiving game. The Lions have been absolutely smashed by opposing offenses this year, giving up the most points in the NFL by far. They also have given up the most rushing TDs (8) along with the 6th most rushing yards and fourth highest YPC.
James Robinson (Jacksonville Jaguars – $6,300/$8,000)
The Houston Texans have been demolished on the ground this year, giving up the most fantasy points to the position like I mentioned last week with Austin Ekeler. We rode Ekeler to a monster performance of rushing for 60 yards on 13 carries with 6 receptions for 49 yards and 3 total scores. The Jaguars are 7 point favorites at home against their divisional foe. If they get up early, I expect JRob to pace this backfield and have 15+ touches with an increased chance of a multi TD game.
Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints – $6,600/$7,000)
Kamara has missed the last few weeks with his rib injury but looks to be close to 100%. This was an injury he could have played through but the Saints wanted to get him right. Kamara faces one of the worst defenses in the NFL this week against the Seahawks at home. The Seahawks have given up the sixth most receptions to RBs and fifth most receiving yards. Along with that, they have been hit for the second most rushing yards (535) and third most rushing TDs. Overall they have given up the third most PPR points to RBs. Ingram has been a fossil out there and the Saints are toying with a must win game. I expect Kamara to get a nice workload in this one.
Honorable Mention: Khalil Herbert (CHI), Miles Sanders (PHI)
Breece Hall (Draftkings – New York Jets – $5,400)
This may be the cheapest we see Hall for the rest of his career. Hall has earned 17 targets the last two weeks and took almost ⅔ of the Jets RB snaps in Week 4. The Dolphins have also given up the fifth most receptions to RBs this year so far. Not only will Hall get 12+ carries on the ground, if he catches 4-5 balls and falls into the endzone, he will blow his value out of the water.
Raheem Mostert (Fanduel – Miami Dolphins – $5,000)
Mostert has seen a massive uptick in snap share since Week 1. Mostert is operating as the RB1 of this offense and getting nearly all of the early down work with some air work mixed in. The Dolphins are favored by three visiting NY this week and I can see a world where they lean heavier on Mostert to ease in Bridgewater. Even if things go off the rails, like I mentioned in my Bridgewater write up, it will create more scoring opportunities for Mostert.
Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,900/$7,000)
Godwin returned in Week 4 and immediately saw 10 targets. He ran 83.7% of his snaps in the slot, a spot on the field that Tom Brady notoriously loves. The Falcons are lining up Dee Alford in the slot against Godwin who played in the CFL last year. Alford has played well to date, but he hasn’t faced anyone like Godwin yet. I expect Brady to find Godwin early and often in this one. It is worth noting that the Falcons have given up the 10th most PPR points to the slot position this year.
Mike Williams (LA Chargers – $7,100/$6,200)
Williams has seen an increased volume in two of the three games that Keenan Allen has missed. In those three games, he has posted lines of 8/113/1, 1/15/1, 7/120 which is good for 17.6 PPR PPG and at least 8.5 in each of those games after being saved by his only catch in Week 3 (a 15 yard TD). This week he faces off against the Cleveland Browns who have been beaten by outside WRs to the tune of 66.5 PPR points this season which is fifth most in the NFL. In a game that has the second highest game total on this slate, this could be an eruption spot for Mike Williams.
Drake London (Atlanta Falcons – $5,900/$6,200)
As I’ve mentioned throughout this article, I think the Bucs give the Falcons the business Sunday. With Kyle Pitts ruled out, this opens the door for London to continue his elite target share. London is seeing the second highest target share (34%) in the NFL behind only Cooper Kupp. He has seen target counts of 7, 12, 6, and 7. So far this year, London has played on the outside and this is partly due to the fact Kyle Pitts has run 40% of his routes in the slot. In college, London played primarily in the slot which is the point of the Buccaneers defense that is most vulnerable. I think London lines up in the slot in a game in which the Falcons are going to be forced to throw the ball a lot. Ten plus targets is likelier than not in this matchup for London.
Terry McLaurin (Washington Commanders – $6,200/$6,500)
The Titans have given up the second most fantasy points to WRs who line up out wide. They are averaging 23.35 PPR PPG and were even hit for multiple chunks by Alec Pierce last week, as the rookie finished with 4 receptions for 80 yards. With Jahan Dotson expected to miss some time and McLaurin by far the best perimeter WR on this team, Wentz is going to look his way all game long, especially if the Titans get out to an early lead. I like this play more on Fanduel than I do Draftkings.
Michael Gallup (Dallas Cowboys – $5,000/$6,000)
I wish Gallup was a little bit cheaper than this but he is cheap enough to make me want me to play him. He will be virtually unowned due to the fact this is only his second game back from his late season torn ACL last year. Last week, Gallup had a promising showing as he was on the field for almost 64% (39) of the Cowboys snaps. Gallup has the best matchup he will see all season this Sunday as the Cowboys take on the Rams. The Rams have given up by far the most fantasy points to perimeter WRs (107.2 PPR points), a spot that Gallup took 36 of his 39 snaps last week. I expect Gallup to run nearly all of the Cowboys passing snaps this week and should see 6+ targets.
Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle (MIA), Corey Davis (NYJ)
Khalil Shakir (Draftkings – Buffalo Bills – $3,200) (Fanduel – $5,000)
With Jamison Crowder out with a broken foot and Isaiah McKenzie still nursing a concussion, Shakir is looking for a lofty snap share. Shakir entered and played the slot when McKenzie went down last week against the Ravens and pulled in both of his targets for 23 yards. The Steelers are notorious for giving up the slot on defense to defend the perimeter and this year is no different as they have given up the fifth most points to slot WRs in the NFL this year.
Kyle Phillips (Draftkings – Tennessee Titans – $3,900)
I like Phillips on Draftkings this week as well so I wanted to give an extra play beyond Shakir. Phillips came back from his Week 1 injury last week in Week 4 but only played two snaps. However, during this game Treylon Burks was injured with turf toe and is going to miss some games. Phillips plays in the slot while Burks plays out wide but this will force Phillips to be in on 3-WR sets at the slot. The Washington Commanders have been absolutely crushed by the slot WR this year giving up 31.2 PPR PPG to the spot so this is a smash spot for Phillips if he can get back to his Week 1 snap share.
Dallas Goedert (Philadelphia Eagles – $4,700/$6,100)
Dallas Goedert has the best matchup on this slate. He has been an important part of this offense and has remained amongst the top three on his team in target share with a 16.9% rate. The Cardinals have given up an average of 20.03 PPR PPG to the TE position so far this year in the NFL which is the most in the NFL. In what has the highest game total on the slate, Goedert is likely to eat.
Tyler Higbee (LA Rams – $4,300/$5,500)
Higbee has been peppered with an insane amount of targets this year with 27 so far (25.5%). This is due to the fact the Rams can’t block anyone so they are resorting to nothing but quick passes to Higbee or Kupp. Their two hardest matchups this year were against the Bills and the 49ers in the trenches. In Week 1 (Bills) Higbee had 11 targets. In Week 4 (49ers) Higbee had 14 targets. Higbee’s ownership here will likely be over 30%. But if you want to eat that chalk, the Cowboys present another mismatch for the Rams offensive line which should result in another game where the Rams have to get the ball out in under 2.5 seconds.
Kyle Pitts (Atlanta Falcons – $4,400/$5,600)- RULED OUT!
My biggest issue with Pitts this week is his ownership. Percentage wise isn’t anything out of control but I expected it to be sub 5% and not in the 15-20% range. Pitts gets a top matchup against the Bucs who have been beat by the TE position all season long. They have given up the fourth most points to the TE position so far this season and have only had one tough matchup which was Travis Kelce in Week 4 who posted a 9/92/1 stat line on 10 targets. I like an offensive stack from the Bucs so coming back with Pitts makes a ton of sense but as a one-off I’d rather pay up for Goedert.
David Njoku (Cleveland Browns – $3,800/$5,700)
NOTE: It is worth noting that as I am writing this, Pitts is missing practice due to a hamstring injury. I will update the article as information is released but if he is expected to be limited in any way at all, I would bump David Njoku to this spot. Njoku has a long history of beating up on the Chargers. He has also seen target counts of 5, 10, and 7 the last 3 weeks. The hang up with Njoku and why he wasn’t above Pitts to begin with is the Chargers having Derwin James and typically shutting down the TE.
Honorable Mentions: Hunter Henry (NE), Dawson Knox (BUF)
Juwan Johnson (New Orleans Saints – $3,000/$4,700)
Johnson caught three of his four targets for 33 yards last week in the Saints 28-25 loss to the Seahawks over in London. Johnson will face the Seahawks in Week 5 and could be in for another solid day against a defense that has given up 75.9 PPR points to the TE position so far this year. One of the reasons is because they just got wrecked by TJ Hockenson for 37.9 last week. They gave up 7/85 to the poor TE group of the Broncos in Week 1, a 38-yard TD catch by 49ers TE Ross Dwelley in Week 2, and Kyle Pitts had his best game of the season in Week 3 going 5/87 with teammate Anthony Firkser adding a 22 yard snag. It is worth mentioning too that Michael Thomas is likely out in Week 5 which could open up another target or two for Johnson.
San Francisco 49ers ($3,800/$4,400)
The top two plays on the slate are by far the 49ers and Cowboys. The 49ers have an elite pass rush led by Nick Bosa who now leads the NFL with six sacks. The Carolina Panthers haven’t been able to pass block at all this year and now have their toughest test. Baker Mayfield has been indecisive which has resulted in fumbles and picks. On top of that, being only 6’ tall, Baker has led the league in balls batted at the line of scrimmage. I expect the Niners to harass Baker all day long.
Dallas Cowboys ($2,500/$4,100)
The LA Rams can’t catch a break. Their onslaught of top tier pass rush defensive lines continues. The Rams offensive Line hasn’t been able to block anything and when the DL can get to the QB without blitz help, it destroys this offense. We have seen what the Bills did to them Week 1 and we just watched the 49ers completely dominate them. This week will be no different and I expect 5+ picks and multiple turnovers.
Carolina Panthers ($2,600/$3,600)
Finding a value play will be tough this week on Fanduel but Carolina presents a solid matchup. San Francisco’s offensive line is running on fumes after All-Pro LT Trent Williams went down with an ankle injury. They did piece together a 24 spot on the Rams but they were dangerously close to giving up a pick six multiple times. Carolina presents a stiff pass defense and if they can slow up the Niners run game, they can get after Jimmy G and force mistakes.