Dallas is the slight favorite to win this series but lost three of four regular-season games to Colorado. Dallas is the top seed, and home ice against the third-ranked division team gives them a slight edge. This matchup should be a lot easier for Dallas than Vegas if you believe it or not. Vegas tanked their final regular season game to set up a matchup with Dallas over Edmonton and it didn’t work as planned. Vegas and Dallas play a similar style of play. Both teams like to play grind-out defensive hockey, averaging under three goals against and letting their offense win lower-scoring 3-2/4-2/3-1 type games. When two teams have similar styles of play, it becomes about skill. Vegas thought they could out skill Dallas in the series, relying on big trade deadline acquisitions to carry them to a series win, but the depth and team play of the Dallas Stars prevented that from happening. Why I like Dallas in this series over Colorado is precisely that. Colorado is a team that relies heavily on their offense and the offensive production of Cale Makar and Devon Toews on the back end while sacrificing some of their defense. Dallas gave up the most goals to Colorado compared to any other opponent during the regular season but scored the fifth most goals of teams they played three times or more. The playoffs are not the regular season and expecting Colorado to score as many goals per game against this Dallas team is highly unlikely. Dallas is a much better offense than the Winnipeg Jets, as well. Colorado gave up ten goals in two games against Winnipeg shutting them down in games 2, 3, and 4. Dallas’ offense won’t be as quiet as Winnipeg’s. I expect Dallas to score 3+ goals per game every game of the series. A matchup against Colorado should be a breath of fresh air against them, allowing them to get going and carry them into the WCF. The key for Dallas will be holding Colorado to three or less.
Official Plays:
- Dallas/Colorado over 5.5 games -MAX play
- Dallas/Colorado over 6.5 games +200: 1u
- Dallas 4-2 5400: 1u
- Dallas 4-3 +400: 1u
- Exact series outcomes:
- Stars/Avs/Stars/Avs/Stars/Avs/Stars +6600
- Avs/Stars/Stars/Avs/Stars/Stars +8000
Today’s Game:
- Colorado is rested, the Stars are tired but ready to go. My mistake last night was playing Florida with a week layoff and not expecting Boston to come in the way Florida did after game 7 into game 1 against the Leafs last season. I think this series will be very high scoring and the books agree with Dallas scoring 3 or more. Game 1’s are always the off games of the series and why I should have treaded more lightly last night and will tonight. I’m playing the above exact series outcome thinking Colorado catches a tired Dallas team before they regroup and take the series. I’m going to splash a few correct scores tonight and that’s it. The series plays here are much more important and sitting out game 1 is fine.
- Official Plays:
- Dallas 4-3 +1350: .25u
- Colorado 4-3 +1350: .25u
- Colorado 5-1 +2500: .25u
- Colorado 4-1 +2200: .25u
- Colorado 5-2 +1900: .25u
- 3-Way Result Tie/Game to go to overtime +330: .25u
- Empty Net Goal +135: 1.5u
