We will be making less game by game plays this round. We were nearly perfect on the series bets in the first round but got bent by the Bruins/Toronto overs. I don’t regret last night’s plays, at all. Needing a 2-2 game to push at worst was a play I was very confident in and we had more than enough opportunities for goals. I overestimated Boston’s offense, albeit I explained exactly why I was making the plays on the over, but the mistake was underestimating Ilya Samsonov. In his career Samsonov is 2-9-2 in 15 games with a 2.92 GAA and even worst save percentage of .898 against them.
Samsonov has given up two or less goals against the Bruins three times in his career and once since his first two career relief appearances against them. The mistake I made was putting too much on Boston’s ability to score and less on the likelihood of them winning outright. We’re going to play the second round a little differently and I’ll break down each series once we have confirmation of who plays the Av’s, but I can tell you right now we will only be making series bets on the Rangers/Hurricanes and nothing more.
This series should be the tightest of them all and the lowest scoring. I have Carolina winning this series in six or seven. Carolina’s will win this series based on their ability to stay out of the penalty box. This series should be determined on special teams and whoever makes the most mistakes. Carolina ranked first during the regular season in The Rangers power play finished third in the regular season so it will be two clashes of titans with Carolina’s power play finishing second in the league against the Rangers third best penalty killing unit. The Hurricanes took eleven total penalties against the Islanders in five games and only gave up three goals, but it will be a different test for Carolina with how bad the Islanders power play units are.
The Rangers were given sixteen power play opportunities in the first round (not all for the full two minutes) and cashed in six times, three of those times in game 4 alone. If the Rangers can’t get their offense going 5 on 5 they’ll need to hold Carolina to one goal or less in multiple games. They can do it in two games but not 4.
The over 5.5 games is too out of reach at -200 and if I post that you’ll all come for my head.
As mentioned, all lines are based off MGM or notated otherwise.
Official Plays:
- Carolina series winner -155: 2u
- Carolina to win series 4-2 +400: 1u
- Carolina to win series 4-3 +500: 1u
- Over 3.5 empty net goals +185: 1u
Take a look at players to score 2+ goals I’m the series. I can’t tell if I’m glitching or there’d errors with players listed multiple times with crazy odds.
