Gameflows

10/24 Breakdowns

10/24 Breakdowns

October 24th, 2022
Ghost

Washington vs New Jersey:

  • In the last 11 meetings, Washington has scored less than 3 goals once. This is a matchup where I have made significant money betting the Capitals side and the over with Washington also winning 10 of the last 11 meetings. 
  • Washington is coming however after a brutal outing on the road against Ottawa in which they score two first period goals on a 5 on 3 and 5 on 4 power play, only to be shut out the rest of the game. 
  • The Devils come in willing three straight after dropping their first two games against Philly and Detroit so I expect a better showing from the Devils tonight against the Caps.
  • This matchup should be less in favor of Washington tonight especially with Charlie Lindgren confirmed to start for the Caps. 
  • This is a game I expect we will see a minimum of five goals by the third period, giving us at worst an empty net opportunity in the final minutes. With this projection I will be playing the over 5.5 game total and laying off a specific side or team total. Both teams should be able to get their share of opportunities tonight.

Dallas vs Ottawa:

  • These two are out of conference teams and don’t see each other often. Ottawa won both matchups last season in October, long before both teams hit their strides for the season.
  • I believe this line is priced wrong and Ottawa should not be the favorites. 
  • Dallas has given up a total of 8 goals on the year in 5 games and are a defensively superior team to the Sens. Both teams are going with their back up netminders tonight with Scott Wedgewood facing off against Magnus Hellberg.
  • I like Dallas here on the ML at even money, would use their TT over 1.5 or 2 in alt line parlays, and would even consider their team total of 3 as a stand alone play. 
  • Ottawa will be coming in on an offensive explosion over their past 3 games but should see a slower gameflow against a defensively sound Dallas team. 

Penguins vs Oilers:

  • The Penguins have scored 6 goals in every game this season except the loss to Montreal. 
  • I don’t plan on slowing down on riding the Penguins here so as long as they continue to score, I am going to continue to play them.
  • Edmonton has given up 3 goals or more in every game this season except for Sunday’s 4pm game to the Blues. 
  • Jack Campbell starts for the Oilers tonight which makes me like the Penguins side of the scoring sheet even more. 

St. Louis vs Winnipeg:

  • St. Louis comes in playing only 3 games so far to start the season. They are rested and fresh and should come in with a fast pace tonight. 
  • Tomas Greiss starts for them however, giving Winnipeg a better chance of extending their 3 game win streak against the Blues, who have won five of the last six against them. 
  • Both teams are being evaluated with a game total of 6 which I believe is a line where the books don’t know how this game is going to go. You would expect a slower, more defensive game between these two teams but both teams’ offenses are above par and Greiss in net gives an additional offensive edge to the Jets. 
  • This is a game where I project to see some early first period goals setting up the over 5.5 to be in a good spot in the 3rd period. 

Toronto vs Vegas:

  • Getting Toronto at -120 is a misprice. While Vegas has had a very nice start to the season, they are not a team that will beat the higher tiered teams in the league. 
  • I consider Toronto to be a higher tiered team in the league and an overmatch for this Vegas team. 
  • Logan Thompson is being overvalued as a Vegas goaltender, and outside of his shutout against the lowly Black Hawks, he’s giving up three goals per game. 
  • Toronto’s offense should feast on the Knights tonight easily putting up 4 goals. 
  • Toronto’s 2.5 team total is a definitely alt line parlay piece, their TT at 3 is in play, and if you don’t want to lay the -175 on the tt at 3, you can save the juice by playing 3.5 for -110. 

Carolina vs Vancouver:

  • Here’s my warning. This line is an absolute joke. Carolina should be -250 tonight and getting them at -150 is a max bet play. What you need to know is that Vancouver hasn’t won a game this season yet so if tonight is the outlier win that they get, we need to eat it and just move on. 
  • The home team has won every matchup between these two teams in their last 10 meetings but the meeting tonight is much different. Vancouver is struggling to score, struggling to hold a lead, struggling in the third period, and you all should know how highly I view and weigh the Hurricanes team.
  • Carolina should run this game from start to finish offensively, defensively, and in net. Frederik Andersen should get the start tonight, and if he doesn’t, we can always hedge. I am going to be taking the -150 ML as well as Carolina’s team total at 3 and ending the night without anger if we miss. 
Nightghost
Author: Nightghost

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