NightGhost NHL

Week 7 DFS (GPP – Main)

Top game stacks

KC @ SF

HOU @ LV

SEA @ LAC

Honorable Mention: DET @ DAL

QB

Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs – $7,800/$8,500)

I’m going back to the well on Mahomes. Mahomes had a solid game last week,and didn’t kill us, but he didn’t light the world on fire either for the GPP winning play we wanted. This week, Mahomes has a very tough matchup against the SF 49ers. The Niners defense is one of the best in the NFL but it is driven on its defensive line play. I expect that they will be thin up front again with Nick Bosa missing another week. With that said, the Chiefs offensive line is one of the best lines in the NFL. The 49ers defensive backfield is very thin and very beatable. If the Niners defensive line can’t get home and make Mahomes life a living hell, this will be a LONG day for the 49ers defensive backfield. I also like the 49ers offense to be able to keep pace and the stackability of this game. As I mentioned last week, I’ll take sub 5% Mahomes any day of the week.

Justin Herbert (LA Chargers – $7,200/$8,100)

Herbert has disappointed this year for yearly fantasy managers that drafted him. However, he has had his decline due mainly to his rib injury that is almost completely cleared up. Herbert has thrown the ball at least 34 times in every single game this year and is coming off of a year high 57 attempts, a game that burned a lot of people because he didn’t throw a single TD. Statistically speaking, with the amount of times he throws and his TD rate, he was due for progression into the positive territory before last week’s game. Now it is even more prevalent in a game that carries a 51 point total, the highest on the weekend.  

Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson (BAL), Geno Smith (SEA)

Value Play

Davis Mills (Houston Texans – $5,000/$6,300)

If I am stacking the Texans/Raiders game I am going to be lining up Mills as my QB. Through five games, the Raiders have been gashed for 1,349 yards and 11 TDs on only 178 attempts against them. This is good to lead the NFL in opposing QBs scoring points against them at 25.6 PPG, 3.1 points higher than the team giving up the second most (Detroit). Most of this production is coming in the air as they only give up 17 rushing yards per game which is middle of the pack. 

RB

Josh Jacobs (Las Vegas Raiders – $6,500/$8,600)

Jacobs is getting elite usage, seeing snaps shares of 89.3 % (Week 4) and 81.2% (Week 5) the last two weeks. Over his last three games he has seen sixteen targets which is 19.3% of the Raiders overall targets and is fourth in the NFL over that time span. The Texans have been gashed for 30.4 PPR PPG by enemy RBs so far this year. Fire up Jacobs confidently this week. The only hesitation with Jacobs is that his ownership may creep upwards to 40%. This can be offset by stacking Jacobs with Mills/WR. Stacking this way is not necessary, but be mindful of his ownership and find relief elsewhere. 

Saquon Barkley (New York Giants – $7,900/$9,300)

Another fantastic matchup for Barkley who is the heart and soul of this 5-1 New York Giants team. The Jaguars have given up the second most receptions to RBs with 47. This is partly due to the Jaguars just giving up 10 receptions to backup RB Deon Jackson in Week 6. However, Giants head coach Brian Daboll has eyes and will see that tape. Daboll will get Barkley involved in a similar manner. Barkley is currently seeing 16.7% of his team’s targets and there is no reason for that to tail off. I expect 20+ touches here for Barkley in a winnable matchup. 

Kenneth Walker (Seattle Seahawks – $5,800/$7,300)

The Chargers were the worst team in the NFL against the run in 2021 and they have not fixed it. They are the worst team in the NFL giving up 5.8 YPC and almost a TD a game on the ground to opposing RBs. They are also giving up the fifth most receptions to RBs with three receiving TDs to those backs. Walker looked every bit of the RB the Seahawks took at the top of the second round in this year’s NFL Rookie Draft. He saw 69.1% of the backfield snaps, parlaying 21 carries to 97 yards and a TD. He also showed his homerun ability with a 34-yard run and an impressive 11-yard run in the 4th quarter to help seal the game over the Cardinals. The Chargers are going to have a tough time slowing down Walker this week.

Kenyan Drake (Baltimore Ravens – $5,100/$6,600)

The Browns have given up the most fantasy points to RBs this year. The Browns have been grinded for 5.5 YPC and the most rushing TDs in the NFL. Last week, JK Dobbins was limited due to “tightness” in his knee, the same knee that is recovering from a complete tear. This was pushed off by the coaching staff as the turf being the reason that he was playing on in New York. History tells us that the Ravens are going to go above and beyond to be cautious with Dobbins. This came to be true as Dobbins is having a minor knee surgery that is going to sideline him for 4-6 weeks. I expect 12-15 elite touches for Drake with an increased chase at a score in this one. 

Honorable Mention: Derrick Henry (TEN), Austin Ekeler (LAC)

Value Play

Sony Michel (LA Chargers – $4,800/5,400)

I would prefer to pay up a little bit on RB this week but if you want a dumpster dive, I think we can squeeze some points out of Sony Michel. Joshua Kelly banged up his knee on MNF this week and is trending towards not playing as I am writing this article. The Seahawks have given up the fifth most .5 PPR points to opposing RBs this year and that does not include being shredded by Taysom Hill in Week 5 for 9/112/3. If Kelly misses, Michel is looking at 10+ touches and a 51 game total meaning he has a higher chance to score a TD. If we can get 50 rushing yards and a score from Sony, he is a hit down here at his price. 

WR

Deebo Samuel (San Francisco 49ers – $7,600/$7,700)

The Chiefs have been shredded by opposing WRs this year, specifically the slot. Deebo plays about 26% of his snaps in the slot but last week it was up to 34%. Another team that gets smoked by the slot? San Francisco’s Week 6 opponent, the Atlanta Falcons. Last week, Deebo saw a season high ten targets, pulling in seven of them for 79 scoreless yards. The Chiefs are worse than the Falcons at covering the slot and are a better offense. As I mentioned with Mahomes, I expect the Chiefs to be able to score on the 49ers, forcing Jimmy G to throw the ball. The variance is on Deebo’s side to get right this week. 

Brandin Cooks (Houston Texans – $6,000/$6,300)

Brandin Cooks is due for a blow up spot with the amount of volume he is seeing. The sticking point with Cooks this week, and what I suspect many will be caught up on, is that the Raiders have only given up 7.5 PPR PPG to perimeter WRs, which is where Cooks runs 75% of his routes. However, I fully expect Rock Ya-Sin to be on Brandin Cooks for the majority of this game. The last time Cooks faced Rock Ya-Sin, Cooks saw thirteen targets, grabbing nine of them for 89 yards. I do think that the Texans will work Cooks into the slot a little bit more than he is used to in this one as well. The Raiders give up the most fantasy points to QBs so if I start Mills, I’m going with his #1 target as well. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions – $7,100/$7,500)

ARSB doesn’t need a good matchup to be playable in DFS. He is going to come in completely overlooked because he missed a few weeks so he isn’t recently on people’s minds and the Cowboys aren’t presented as a great matchup. As a matter of fact, slot WRs have not had much success at all against the Cowboys on paper. However, the Cowboys also really haven’t played anyone of substance. The only slot WR they have faced who is average or better is ironically Cooper Kupp. Kupp did Kupp things and smoked them for 7/125/1 on 10 targets. A healthy ARSB with an elite offensive line and a QB who wants to get him the ball has me signing up all day long. Since ARSB has taken over as the alpha in Detroit (9 games), he has a stat line of 74/813/8. He has at least six receptions and 64 yards in every game over that stretch. 

Tyler Lockett (Seattle Seahawks – $5,800/$6,800)

The Chargers are giving up 22.8 PPR PPG to the slot this year which is the sixth most in the NFL to date. Lockett is running almost 43% of his routes in the slot this year and earning a 24.5% target share. Before only scoring 3.7 points against the Cardinals in Week 6, Lockett was averaging a consistent 16.52 PPG with only one game under 13.1 and a ceiling of 27.4. I think we will see a ceiling game here. If you are firing up the SEA/LAC stack and for Lockett’s price, I think he is a must roster in my opinion. 

Michael Pittman (Indianapolis Colts – $7,400/$7,500)

I think the only reason Pittman is going to be under 5% here is due to his performance the first time these two teams faced off. In Week 4, Pittman saw six targets against the Titans, only pulling in 3 of them for 31 scoreless yards. The entire Colts offense played extremely poorly in this matchup, even Jonathan Taylor ran the ball 20 times for only 42 scoreless yards. Matt Ryan was able to put up 356 passing yards and two scores while other complimentary pieces overachieved, such as Alex Pierce having his breakout game. The reality is, the Titans still present an elite matchup for Pittman. Their exterior CBs get burned at an above average clip. The Colts offense just had by far its best game of the season, a game in which Pittman dropped a 13/134 statline on 16 targets. The offensive line is playing much better after shuffling some things around as well. I expect a different outcome in this one versus the Week 4 outcome of 3/31 and I’ll happily take it at sub 5% ownership. 

Honorable Mention: Jaylen Waddle (MIA), Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)

Value Play

David Bell (Draftkings – Cleveland Browns – $3,200)

David Bell saw his largest snap share of the season last week, which could have been due to them losing most of the game and throwing the ball 45 times, but I am a believer in Bell’s talent. His Week 7 matchup, the Baltimore Ravens, have given up the third most PPR PPG to the slot WR position. David Ball played 31 of his 33 Week 6 snaps in the slot. At his price tag in a full PPR scoring, he will only need five targets to pay off his price tag. 

DJ Moore (Fanduel – Carolina Panthers – $5,500)

This has to be the rock bottom for DJ Moore. In Week 6, he saw seven targets (26.8%) and has seen 26 targets over his last three games. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected to dominate this game as they come in as 11 point favorites over the scuffling Panthers. This is going to force the Panthers to pass the ball, which all of those balls will goto DJ Moore now that CMC is out of the picture. I’m betting on talent in a game that DJ Moore will out match his opposing coverage and the raw volume will be there for him to succeed. 

TE

OJ Howard (Houston Texans – $2,600/$4,500)

Shew. OJ Howard. I’m taking a stand this week. The Raiders have given up the third most PPR PPG to Tight Ends lined up inline so far this year. Howard runs over 83% of his snaps from a traditional alignment next to the offensive tackle and not in the slot. The Raiders are giving up 5/50/1 per game to the position. Howard saw 79.3% of the Texans TE snaps during Houston’s last game in Week 5. He only saw one target in that game but he saw five in Week 4’s loss to the Chargers, a team who is also giving up a lot to the TE position (8th most). We are going to be the only ones rostering Howard this week and he is a FANTASTIC pivot off of Greg Dulcich, who is going to see 20%+ ownership across both platforms. 

Hayden Hurst (Cincinnati Bengals – $3,500/$4,900)

The Bengals are facing the Falcons this week who give up the third most fantasy PPR points per game to the TE spot. Opposing TEs are seeing nine targets per game (tied for most in the NFL), catching seven for 73 on average. Hurst is seeing a consistent 13.8% target share over the course of the season so far. The Bengals have also shown the awareness to involve their TE when the proper matchup presents itself. In a game that has sneaky blow up possibilities, I like the prospect of Hurts getting 7-8 targets and red zone looks. 

Honorable Mentions: Gerald Everett (LAC), George Kittle (SF), Travis Kelce (KC)

Value Play

Evan Engram (Jacksonville Jaguars – $3,300/$5,200)

The value play this week is OJ Howard so think of this section as more of an extension since all three options are on the cheaper side. The Giants are being attacked by opposing teams through the TE spot. Last week was the first time that they faced a legitimate TE and Andrews dropped a 7/106/1 stat line on them. They bring the blitz more than any other team in the NFL so finding the TE can become a habit if you’re an opposing QB seeing that. They have faced opposing TEs such as Austin Hooper, Ian Thomas, Peyton Hendershot, Cole Kmet, and Robert Tonyan and yet manage to give up the 12th most PPR points to the position, averaging eight targets, six receptions and 61 yards per matchup. Engram is seeing elite usage for TEs, earning ten targets in Week 5 and six targets in Week 6. 

DST

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,900/$5,000)

The Bucs have been making plays this year, forcing nineturnovers and accumulating 21 sacks with a pressure rate of 28.4%. I’m not the biggest endorser of PFF but it is really tough to quantify offensive line play so I do lean a little bit on them in that regard. Per PFF’s most recent offensive line rankings, they have Carolina ranked 24th in the NFL. They are currently allowing sacks at the 3rd highest rate (9.5%) in the NFL. They will be lining up PJ Walker again in Week 7, a QB who they babied with one of the most vanilla offensive gameplans I’ve ever seen in my life during the Panther’s Week 6 loss to the Rams. If the Bucs get up early, they could make a statement in this division after a disappointing 3-3 start to the season. 

New York Jets ($2,600/$4,300)

I’ll give credit to Ghost on the Jets. I liked the talent on this team and the coaching staff but I honestly had a hard time coming around on them to actually get over the hump and win games. Going into Lambeau Field last week and dropping 16 DST points is an extremely tough task. They have scored at least nine fantasy points in each of their last three games, averaging 13 over that time frame. They have sacked opposing QBs 9 times with only blitzing at the 2nd lowest rate in the NFL while having the 6th most QB Pressures in the NFL. Fourth overall pick, Sauce Gardner, is already playing like an elite CB in the NFL and I expect him to shut down the Broncos main weapon, Courtland Sutton. With the possibility of Russell Wilson missing this game, a poor offensive line, little to no talent in the backfield and an ascending defensive unit, I’ll fire up the Jets confidently and expect double digit fantasy points when I do so. 

Value Play

Washington Commanders ($2,500/$3,700)

The Commanders are playing better as of late. The last two weeks they have combined for ten sacks, 25 QB Hits and two turnovers. Over the last six quarters, the Packers have only scored ten points and are having a difficult time keeping Rodgers upright. Last week, the Jets scored 16 points against the Packers while accruing four sacks, nine QB Hits, one turnover, and a punt blocked returned for a TD. The Commanders are unlikely to be the top scoring unit on the slate but offer some cap relief and should return 7-10 points. 

Sanaynay
Author: Sanaynay

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