2024 NFL Draft Breakdown

It is finally Draft Week! Draft night, as many of you know, is one of my favorite nights of the year. I’ve been waiting for this day for months like a kid on Christmas. Below I’ll breakdown where I currently view the draft with the importance that this thing is the definition of a snowball effect. One pick changing early will change everything below it. I’ll go into the scenarios that I deem most likely and do my best to cover all of the basis but if you have any questions, as always, ask me in chat. 

2024 NFL Draft

1st overall

Caleb Williams. That’s it. The Bears are taking Caleb Williams 1st overall. I won’t waste anyone’s time here. 

What happens after this?

The majority of the media seems overly confident that Jayden Daniels is the pick here. I am going against some of the biggest names in the industry and have been out on my limb by myself saying Daniels is NOT going 2nd and it will in fact be, Michigan QB, JJ McCarthy who the Washington Commanders select. There is still a chance that it is Drake Maye but given what I’ve been told mixed with some tea leaf reading, I feel strongly on this stance. I’m going to be moving forward with McCarthy in my mock barring any major news coming out before the draft, which I do not expect. Adam Peters has not revealed who their actual pick is to anyone and won’t reveal it until draft night. So we have until around Thursday to hedge if we need to. We have 6u to win 130u just on McCarthy going 2nd alone. If I see anything, I will immediately put in a hedge if need be. So be on the lookout for that.

Quarterback Fallout

How do these QBs shake out? Obviously if McCarthy goes 2nd it is going to throw everyone for a loop. As of right now, the chalk consensus is that Jayden Daniels will go 2nd overall to the Commanders, followed by Drake Maye going 3rd overall to the Patriots, and then somewhere in pick 4 or 5, JJ McCarthy will be selected by a team trading up in front of the New York Giants, or even the New York Giants themselves moving up to secure their franchise QB. The teams rumored to be moving up consist of the Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, and Las Vegas Raiders, with a few sleeper teams mixed in. I’ve even heard rumblings that the LA Rams may be in play to move up and find the long term replacement behind Matthew Stafford. 

What if the Commanders don’t select Jayden Daniels?

If the Washington Commanders do in fact not take Jayden Daniels, this creates a slight change in the Top 5 of the NFL draft but just placement of these QBs. I think regardless of who the Commanders land on, all four of Caleb Williams, JJ McCarthy, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye go in the first five picks of the NFL Draft this Thursday. If Daniels doesn’t go 2nd, I do think the Patriots are the landing spot for him. As a side note, keep an eye on Brandon Aiyuk landing in New England as well. Aiyuk or Deebo being on the move seems to be gaining more and more steam as we get closer to the draft. With that said, I think whatever happens with JJ McCarthy and Drake Maye in this scenario are a little interchangeable. Out of the three QBs, Maye is the least likely to go 2nd overall. But, I can’t say with the utmost confidence that JJ McCarthy would be the pick at 3 if the Commanders take Jayden Daniels. So if Daniels doesn’t go 2nd overall, I think it will be JJ McCarthy. If they do take Drake Maye, I think we see JJ McCarthy go 4th or 5th. The same applies for Drake Maye. So we will see a combination of the below given who goes 2nd overall.

Jayden Daniels:

1. Caleb Williams
2. Jayden Daniels
3. JJ McCarthy / Drake Maye
4. JJ McCarthy / Drake Maye
5. Marvin Harrison Jr.

JJ McCarthy:

1. Caleb Williams
2. JJ McCarthy
3. Jayden Daniels
4. Drake Maye
5. Marvin Harrison Jr.

Drake Maye:

1. Caleb Williams
2. Drake Maye
3. Jayden Daniels
4. JJ McCarthy
5. Marvin Harrison Jr.

Now, in all of these scenarios I purposefully put Marvin Harrison Jr. at five. This will lead me to the next turning point of the draft.

Who picks 4th Overall?

With the mindset that Jayden Daniels will be gone by pick 3 regardless of who the Commanders take at two, we will see a bidding war for the 4th QB taken off the board. This leaves either Drake Maye or JJ McCarthy for the teams on the outside of the Top 3 picks to fight for the rights to draft. This will come down to if the Cardinals stay at four and select Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Nabers (much likelier MHJ) or will they be the team to trade with an outside team trying to move up? If they stay and make their pick, it means that the LA Chargers, who are very motivated to move back, are the team to move back. This will pit the Giants, Vikings, Broncos, Raiders, and a sleeper team or two, up against each other to snag the last of the top four QBs. I think if the 4th QB sticks until pick five, we can all but rule out the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders, especially if it is JJ McCarthy. There is next to a 0% chance that Jim Harbaugh will trade his golden boy within the division and have to face him twice a year. This would leave both the Giants and Vikings fighting for that pick, giving the Vikings the edge as they can justify way more draft capital to go get their guy while the giants will be satisfied with the 2nd WR on the board landing in their laps. Due to this, I think it is likely that the Cardinals are the team that trades out of their draft spot. The market will be driven up because you have four teams fighting for this spot as opposed to two, forcing the Vikings to give up more capital to get up to take their QB. 

What happens outside of the Top 5?

I think it is likely that the Top 6 picks in the 2024 NFL Draft will consist of these six players

• Caleb Williams
• JJ McCarthy
• Jayden Daniels
• Drake Maye
• Marvin Harrison Jr.
• Malik Nabers.

Beyond that, we will get to pick 7 with the Tennessee Titans. There will be some rumblings that the Titans are entertaining a trade back from 7 but along with that, the Atlanta Falcons right behind them will be as well and may be more motivated to do so. I think the Titans stay at 7 and take Offensive Tackle help. It will be a bit premature to pencil in Notre Dame Offensive Tackle, Joe Alt, though. While Joe Alt is pegged by many around the media as the top, I’m not so sure he fits what the Titans want at Tackle. I think it is likely that the Titans snag either Olumuyiwa Fashanu or JC Latham. I think they fit the scheme under new Offensive Line Coach, Bill Callahan but it is very hard to rule out the -165 favorite, Joe Alt, after all. 

At pick 8, we have two options. Early on I thought Dallas Turner was the lock to go in this spot and was one of my favorite bets. I uncovered some more information and I am now convinced that the Falcons have two paths. The likely path, and path I think the Falcons want to take, is trading back out of pick 8. I think they want to move back and recoup some picks because they feel their player of choice will be there later in the draft and if hes not, they are comfortable with any of the 4 highly rated defensive lineman (Latu, Turner, Verse, Murphy) as well as the top two Corners (Mitchell, Arnold). Teams that are rumored to be looking to move up for Rome Odunze include the Chicago Bears, New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts, and Jacksonville Jaguars, among others. If they stay at 8, they take Laiatu Latu.

As we approach pick 9, we have another start to see a trend of “if this player is here” this is the list but they would have a preference to move back. If Rome Odunze is here at pick 9, that is who the Bears will take. If not, they will resort to Jared Verse or Byron Murphy. It is more likely that a team moves up with the Falcons at 8, landing Rome Odunze ahead of the Bears. This will leave the Bears without an obvious trade candidate, leaving them to settle for Jared Verse if need be. Options for a move up here could be the LA Rams or New Orleans Saints, both eying Offensive Tackle, causing a need to outbid one another.

Pick 10 is kind of where we can see it go off the rails. Like I mentioned above, I think there is a better chance than people are giving it credit for that Joe Alt lasts until the Jets at 10. If he does, he is their pick. If not, I think they will value Troy Fautanu more than Brock Bowers. Bowers could still be the pick, but I just think they go Offensive Line the more I hear. 

Long shot

They’re quite a few longshots this year and I think we’ve been able to snag some incredible value along the way. If I were to pinpoint a current long shot to look out for, it would be Mike Sainristil to be drafted in the first round. He is a relatively smaller corner who is projected to mainly man the middle of the field on defense but he is a tough son of a bitch. Below is the write up from Lance Zierlein for more context

“Reliable and tough with the athleticism and upside to keep getting better as a nickel corner. Sainristil is a former receiver who plays with surprising field awareness and attention to detail as a zone defender. He has the twitch and footwork to stay connected with routes in man coverage but needs more experience at the position to operate with better recognition and feel for the routes. He showed off top-notch ball skills with six interceptions (two for scores) in 2023 and has no problem stepping up and doing his part as a run defender. Sainristil isn’t there yet but should keep improving and has a chance to become a starting nickel in time.”

I have consistently seen some serious smoke that teams value him highly. I think he has a shot to sneak into the first round to one of the teams picking later in the draft, specifically the Detroit Lions. You can parlay him to be selected in the first round along with JJ McCarthy to be the 2nd overall pick to get some long shot juice. For example:

4 leg parlay (+257300)

• JJ McCarthy to be drafted 2nd overall
• Jared Verse to be a Top 10 Pick
• Troy Fautanu to be a Top 10 Pick
• Mike Sainristil to be a 1st Round Pick

They’re other paths you can play around with if you want some serious longshots based around Sainristil to be a 1st round pick. As I mentioned in chat and below, the same applies with Patrick Paul. If you insert him into the parlay design above, you get a +120878 number. Don’t forget to have some fun sometimes! It is the NFL Draft after all and the most unpredictable sporting event of the year. But that is why we love it!

The Mock

**Releasing Wednesday 4/24

Bets

I’m reposting this down here. The older one is 2 months old and is moving too far back. All of the write ups I had typed out are in the article below along with quick notes to catch us up to date, as requested. Ask me to clarify anything or any questions you may have in chat.

– Atlanta Falcons to draft JJ McCarthy (+1100): 1u – Fanduel (2/10/2024)

– JJ McCarthy to be drafted 2nd overall (+3000): 1u – Fanduel (2/16)

– JJ McCarthy to be drafted 3rd overall (+900): .5u – Draftkings (2/16)

– Marvin Harrison Jr. to be drafted by the New York Giants (+5000): .5u (2/26/2024)

– JJ McCarthy to be drafted 5th overall (+7500): 1u – Fantatics (2/28/24) 

– Drake Maye to be drafted 5th overall (+8000): .5u – Fanatics (3/1/24)

– JC Latham 1st Offensive Lineman Selected (+1500): 1u – Fanatics (3/2/2024)

– Brock Bowers to be drafted by the LA Chargers (+1000): 1u – Fanduel (3/15/24)

– Brock Bowers to be drafted by the New York Jets (+400): 2u – ESPNBet (3/15/24)

– Drake Maye to be drafted 6th overall (+6000): .5u – Fanduel (3/19/24) 

– Jayden Daniels to be drafted 6th overall (+6600): 1u – MGM (3/27/24)

– JC Latham 1st non-QB drafted (+7500): 1u – Draftkings

– Joe Alt to be drafted 7th overall (-120): 3u – Fanduel (4/1/2024)

– Dallas Turner to be drafted 8th overall (+200): 3u – BetRivers (4/1/2024)

– u4.5 QBs drafted in 1st round (+165): 2u – Draftkings (4/2/24) 

– Laiatu Latu to be a Top 10 Pick (+500): 1u – Fanduel (4/6/2024)

– JC Latham to be drafted 7th overall (+2200): 1u – Draftkings (4/12/24)

– JJ McCarthy to be drafted Top 5 (-155): 5u – Draftkings (4/12/24)

– Bo Nix o32.5 (-175): 2u – Draftkings (4/13/24)

– Brian Thomas o16.5 (-150): 2u – ESPNBet (4/13/24)

– Brian Murphy u16.5 (-160): 2u – Draftkings (4/13/24)

– Michael Penix o32.5 (-140): 3u – Draftkings (4/14/24) 

– Laiatu Latu u18.5 (-140): 3u – Caesars (4/14/24) 

– Adonai Mitchell u27.5 (-140): 3u – Draftkings (4/15/24)

– Jayden Daniels to be drafted 7th overall (+10000): 1u – Fanduel (4/14/24)

– Jayden Daniels to be drafted 8th overall (+10000): 1u (4/14/24)

– 1. Caleb Williams, 2. JJ McCarthy, 3. Jayden Daniels, 4. Marvin Harrison, 5. Drake Maye (+12000): 1u – Fanduel (4/16/24)

– 1. Caleb Williams, 2. JJ McCarthy, 3. Jayden Daniels, 4. Drake Maye, 5. Marvin Harrison Jr. (+9500): 1u – Fanduel (4/16/24)

– Joe Alt o7.5 (+255): 2u – Draftkings (4/17/24)  

– JJ McCarthy go be drafted 2nd overall (+2000): 5u – Fanduel (4/19/24) 

– Patrick Paul to be drafted 1st round (+1000): 2u – Draftkings (4/21/24)

Author: Sanaynay