Liking the Blue Jackets franchise isn’t hard. Ownship continually tries to win and they go all in to do so; they’re good when they’re good, and they suck when they suck, so betting on them over the years has been very profitable. The Blue Jackets made the most significant signing two offseasons ago with Johnny Gaudreau, and they soon became one of the worst teams in the league. The season was surprising. Although no one expected them to be a top team in the league, the Gaudreau signing lifted expectations and gave hope they could be a playoff team. The season went nowhere near as planned. Patrik Laine went down with an injury early in the season, missing seven games and missing 25 total games on the year. The offense struggled early, scoring two goals or less in more than half of their games. The Blue Jackets finished the season 30th in the league in goals per game (2.60) and 31st in the league in goals against per game (4.01).
The Blue Jackets’ biggest struggle has been Elvis Merzlikins. Merzlikins was a promising young goaltender for the Jackets’ putting up excellent numbers in a limited role the first two seasons of his career. On July 4th, 2021, Merlkins’ close friend and teammate Matīss Kivlenieks died after being struck in the chest by a firework at goalie coach Manny Legace’s home. Since then, Merlikins has not been the same goaltender. Believing Merzlikin’s has figured it out this off-season isn’t practical. Merzlikin’s doesn’t look like a goaltender on a bad run, he looks like a goaltender who has completely lost his talent. The Jackets signed Merzlikin’s to a five-year contract two months after the accident for 5 million per year, and now they’re stuck. The Jackets expect to go with Danil Tarasov if Merzlikins fails to rebound. I expect Tarasov to take over the duties by the season’s midpoint. Columbus would be an interesting trade partner for Philly if a third team looking to retain salary can get in the mix. Columbus has never had a problem moving picks to acquire star players as they did with Matt Duchene in 2019.
The Jackets were bad from top to bottom. I can’t say that the Jackets should be this bad, though. The Jackets had the third overall pick in this summer’s draft and took Canadian forward Adam Fantilli. Rick Nash has been the best player the Jackets have ever drafted (1st overall), and they have seen mediocre top 10 picks come out of their drafts. The Jackets have missed on guys like Matt Tkachuk for Pierre Luc Dubois, Mikko Rantanen for Zach Werenski, and David Pastrnak for Sonny Milano. Their 2021 picks of Kent Johnson and Cole Sillinger give their draft a bit of light, but hope around Sillinger is fading after he ended the season with three goals and eight assists in 64 games last year. Sillinger has twenty-goal potential this year and needs to characterize last season as a sophomore slump. Fantilli is a kid with quick hands and is slick with the puck. Fantilli can slot on a line with Kent Johnson and last year’s breakout pick from 2018, Kirill Marchenko. These three could break out as one of the best young lines in the league this season. Johnson, Fantilli, and Marchenko are three kids I will certainly be keeping an eye on.
The Blue Jackets are a bubble team right now. As bad as last season went, the pieces are still here. The Jackets saw this and made moves they felt were a splash. With Fantilli expected to be a second-line player, the Jackets have a solid top three lines. On the top line, Johnny Gaudreau, Boone Jenner, and Patrik Laine will determine this team’s success. Each of these three players has the individual skill to be a top player in this league, so they need to come together and play as a unit. Gaudreau has proven he can play on and lead an elite line as arguably the best line in the league, as he did with Matthew Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm. As mentioned, Johnson, Fantilli, and Marchenko could shape the second line. With Jack Roslovic, Cole Silinger, and Emil Benstrom on the third line, Columbus has a lineup that should be a Wild Card team, but I believe the Jackets will need a lot to go right for this offense to click and reach its ceiling and it won’t.
With what the Jackets believe is the offense looking more promising, the Jackets also had to address the team’s back end. The Jackets made a surprising move with the Devils in a sign and trade around Damon Severson. The Devils signed Severson to an 8-year deal before the deadline so he could get the maximum term you were allowed before the deadline. The Devils then traded him to the Jackets for a third-round pick. The deal is horrific for multiple reasons. Severson is already 29 and does not have eight years left in his tank to play at a 6.25 million-a-year cost, and he doesn’t have one year worth 6.25 million in my opinion. Damon Severson is not a top-pair defenseman. The Jackets also traded their second-round pick, amongst other moving pieces, to get Ivan Provorov. Provorov can help the Jackets as a second-line defenseman, but I’d like to see him playing with Zack Werenski and learn from Severson’s experience. Provorov could have a ceiling higher than Werenski if he can take the next step. Provorov has disappointed the Flyers the past few years after two fantastic years in 2017 and 2019.
The Blue Jackets could use a true elite defenseman but won’t find one yet. If they have playoff hopes, we could see the Jackets target some names at the deadline. The top free-agent defensemen Columbus would want to target (Brady Skjei and Devon Toews) both play for playoff teams and are not likely to be moved at the deadline. Columbus is a few pieces away from being a legitimate contender and are limited financially. Expect a team with very high-scoring games and a team we target often.
