Let’s start with a recap of last week. We have to make up for it. When things go cold, they go very cold, and we lost four max plays in three days. How we handle that depends on the bettor. Are you a 100u start to finish bankroll person, are you a day to day bettor, or are you someone who takes the plays, then throws an additional twenty plays and parlays in on top of it? Personally, I am a day to day person, so this coming week will be a day to day grind to recoup my bankroll. The hardest part about doing “this,” and what we’ve created here, is systematically finding a way to balance every other person’s betting style and preferences into one way to give out plays. There’s no specific way or science to it. I’ve found that the best way for me to help all of you, is by giving you my thoughts and analysis day by day, game by game and helping you all learn and create plays to what you are looking for. The best way for me to get through this upcoming week is to do it specifically that way. When I have weeks like we just did, I prefer to play 1-2 plays per day and grind my bankroll back. This ‘job’, this ‘hobby’, doesn’t go away. There will be games tomorrow, next week, next month, and next season. Patience is the key to being successful and that’s how I’ve found handling these losing weeks gets fixed; patiently. So for this upcoming week what you will see is me giving out one to two, two to three unit plays “officially,” while providing you the breakdowns and analysis on each other game I have a lean on for those to compile the additional plays they enjoy playing. So here is my thought process approaching tomorrow’s slate:

We have four games on tap, so our edges need to be calculated. I pull up the slate, look at all the games on tap, and single out the 1-2 games that stand out most to me. Which two are those? Take this minute to see if you can guess which two they are to see if you are catching on to my process. If you said THe Rangers game and the Toronto game, you would be wrong. When looking at this slate, reading my articles and learning from them would tell you that Toronto is “surprisingly one of the best defensive teams in the league.” You would also know that I feel the Islanders are going through an identity crisis and are severely struggling lately. You would also know that the Panthers and Rangers are two teams I am very down on this year. There is one piece of information that sticks with me to make this a matchup to come back to third on my list, and that there’s still a rivalry between the Isles and Toronto due to John Tavares that has been favorable in the past. But for me, when I look at this slate, seeing Buffalo and Columbus on the road against two Western Conference teams at home that I like to play, these two games begin my initial target. So let’s dive into why:

Buffalo vs Dallas:

• As mentioned, if you read the articles in the past and pick up on the info I give out, the recent writeup I did on Buffalo yesterday should still be fresh. I’ll respot the important parts here:
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• What should stay fresh from here is two things; one being that Buffalo’s offense has been up and down for my liking. Why is that important? Because what we should know by now at this point of the season is that Dallas is a very good defensive team. No matter how good Buffalo’s offense can be, defense reigns supreme. Dallas gives up 2.54 goals per game which is second best in the league. What is important to this game tomorrow will be who is in net for Dallas. If Jake Oettinger is in then it raises the likelihood of Dallas winning and winning by a bigger margin. If Scott Wedgewood is in net for Dallas, it makes me more weary to play Dallas on the money line because it opens Buffalo’s offense up more. What to know is that Scott Wedgewood came to Dallas from the Devils so he was in the Eastern Conference with the Devils meaning his matchups against them should hold more weight history wise. In two games against them he’s given up 7 goals. Oettinger has seen BUffalo once before stopping 38 of 40 shots against them. What’s also important is how bad Buffalo’s defense has been. In the first screen shot I talk about how Buffalo’s defense has been a problem for them and why they are where they are in the standings. Dallas comes into this game tied with Winnipeg for the lead in the Central, albeit they have 7 overtime losses to Winnipeg’s 1, Dallas is a +43 in goal differential for the best in the West. They are second in total goals as well with 167. You have a high scoring offense averaging 3.46 goals per game. On paper, this game stands out as a huge edge for Dallas on the total. 
• So what do we have to worry about here? What we have to worry about here is what I found the difference to be causing that miserable November. The books got destroyed by us last season. We hit total after total to the tune of 200 units on the year. So without looking at the books, I already know Dallas’ team total is going to open at 3.5 in the -120 range. So this is when I pull up the books for the first time. I set where I think the lines should be and compare. There’s two ways for me to be wrong, and the first is that the line could be set at 4 so that 3.5 is completely juiced up, or the God’s grace of miracle, this line is set at 3, which it wont be. I will be lucky to get 3 at under -200 on the alt line. So let’s see where we are and if I’m close: 
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  • So here’s where I see a flag. I expected Dallas to be a mid to high -200 favorite. When pulling up the line for the first time and I see -180, flags go up. The questions that follow are why is the line so low, and okay, now I may be able to get this total at 3. Lets see…
  • -124. Right on line. But, now I check the alt line because I’m curious, and 3 is set at -220 which I expected. So now two things stay in my mind and carry into tomorrow: 
    • Do they know Wedgewood is starting and they want us to grab the -180 thinking it’s a bad line, or is this a completely mispriced game. I check Oettinger’s game log and he’s played the 8th, 10th, 12th, 16th, 18th, and the 21st. Dallas had games on the 14th and 19th with Wedgewood starting both games. He was lit up by the Flames on the 14th but pitched a shutout on the 19th against LA. He wouldn’t be playing again tomorrow and Oettinger isn’t on the injury report. So why is this game -180…
      • Possibly because Dallas is playing Carolina and New Jersey next and this could be a trap game overlooking Buffalo.
      • Possibly because this will be their fourth game in six days. 
      • Possibly because.. Nope. this line does not make sense. Dallas has pitched 3 shut outs in the past 4 games. Since they blew the 3-0 lead to the Sharks when we were on Dallas’ team total, they haven’t given up a goal. This is a bad line. Even if Buffalo wins, this line should not be -180. The books are projecting this as a 4-3 win for the Stars. I disagree
• So now we’re back to the play.after analyzing all of that, I establish what I think will happen in this game and for me, with everything I’ve talked about with Buffalo’s offense as of late, I expect Dallas’s defense to shine again. If they carry the momentum over these past four games this should be a game Buffalo scores 2 or less. Can they score 3, sure, I wouldn’t put it past them. Do I think they will? The only way I think they get the third goal is if it’s a late garbage time goal when the game has already been decided. I don’t count that as a 3 goals against game for Dallas as I would if they had 3 earlier and the game is tight. I expect Dallas to hold a 3-2 lead or better by the 10 minute mark of the third period. I expect this to be a game flow that Dallas dominates. They should control the puck, control the game, and this offense should be able to light up Craig Anderson or UPL. 
  • So now what stands out to me is that Eric Comrie is expected to start for Buffalo tomorrow. Why? Because Buffalo likes to rotate three goalies who are all bleh. To be honest, I don’t like it and that may be a reason I lay off the money line. If you disagree, this is why I write the articles, so you can decide it doesn’t matter. Do I think this helps Buffalo be a better team? No. So why don’t I like it? Because he’s the goalie I’ve seen the least, and as Connor Hellebuyck’s backup last year he posted a 2.58 GAA with 10 wins in 16 starts. In front of a good team he has the ability to post a ceiling game against a team that has seen him once. Dallas has a much better history against Craig Anderson and with Anderson between the pipes, the net is much more wide open. Dallas should have to find some more precision and cleaner finishes to beat Eric Comrie. It makes me like this a lot less. It opens me up to a lot more variance and anomalies since we may never get this matchup again to make up for it. 

Next game….

Columbus vs Calgary:

• • Who’s worse than Buffalo goals against wise? Columbus. Who’s one of the lower scoring teams in the league? Columbus. Who is 3-15-1 on the road? Columbus. Who’s dead last in the East? Columbus. Who do we hate and love betting against? Columbus. 
  • What do we know about Calgary? Same identity issues since the Tkachuk trade.

• What’s important? THIS IS JOHNNY GAUDREAU’S RETURN TO CALGARY.

• Tempers will be hot. The crowd should give him a standing ovation and then boo him. This game is going to be hot. Calgary had won the past six matchups with Gaudreau on the Flames, but when Calgary came to Columbus back in December, Columbus beat them. 
• When looking at the statistics, this should be a smash spot for Calgary’s offense at home. I would like to see this line open at 3.5 + money or 3 -130, but I won’t be so lucky. Let’s see where it is:
• It’s 4 -129. Not even close. This is a bad line and it favors the books. This is a line where Calgary should put up 6 and they’re going to make you pay for it, but they want to trap you knowing Columbus has a lot more to play for in this game with Gaudreau returning. We’ve already seen that they can beat them. 3.5 is -200. It’s unplayable. This game is not a guarantee that Calgary goes off. You’re playing with fire in this matchup. No pun intended here. The books are making you fuck around and find out. How do you beat them? By playing 4.5 +125 and 5 +225 on top of 4. -129 isn’t a bad line for 4, but it’s asking for everything in this game to go right. You have to throw the Gaudreau narrative out the window because he is the best skilled player on the ice in this game. Everything needs to go right for Calgary here. Their top two lines have to click and score. Their third line has to contribute, and their 4th line has to play well. Jacob Markstrom needs to show up, and their D needs to keep Columbus the low scoring team they are. Calgary’s offense has scored 5 goals or more twice in the past four games. Playing this game says you expect that to continue and if you expect that to continue then you play 4.5 and 5 making this a potential ladder game.
• If you think that carries over as well, the ML becomes a parlay piece. 

So now I’ve analyzed the two games that stood out to me most pregame and now I go and look if I find anything in the other two games to outweigh playing both Dallas’ and Calgary’s team totals. 

Florida vs New York:

• I am sick of these two teams and I am sick of analyzing them and I am sick of wondering which version of them will show up. So what does this become? A game where you see that these two teams have played high scoring games that have seen 6 or more goals in the past 14 matchups since 2016. 
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• We played this matchup solo on New Years Day and won 2 units. 
• Last year in December at 4Deep we played the Panthers team total and won:
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• On February 1st I tried to get cute:
• We’ve had success here. The numbers say to play the over again. Barstool is offering 5.5 at -182. So what do I need to know and decide:
  • Weare coming off a monstrous disaster Thursday, Friday, and Monday. Can I afford to max bet the over here to recoup my losses solely on the basis of our history? Does it matter that I think both teams have been shit to us? Florida has scored 4 or more goals in six of the past seven. The Rangers offense has struggled and their lines and lineup has been a mess. If one is not getting benched in this game, another is getting healthy scratched or cut the next. I believe Gerard Gallant has already lost this team. I don’t trust this team offensively. Igor Shesterkin is hit or miss night by night. But it doesn’t matter because Alex Lyon will be starting in net tomorrow for Florida and that is enough for me to put money on the Rangers. This is their chance to put up and shut up. With Igor playing up and down, I view this game balanced enough by either team to hit the 5.5. For me, both teams are scoring 2 goals tomorrow. How doesn’t that happen? One of two ways, Alex Lyon shuts the Rangers down which I think is laughable in terms of betting on it, but hey, Any given Sunday. Or, which I think is more plausible, this will be the first time Igor sees the Panthers without Huberdeau and with Tkachuk. On New Years Day Jaroslav Halak started. This will be game 1 of Igor against Tkachuk on the Panthers and we don’t know how that will play out. Do I expect a top game from Igor tomorrow? No, not at all, but I need to analyze every angle of why a play will or won’t hit. How do I get to 6 goals to win. By assessing that Florida’s offense will be able to put up two goals tomorrow. I do not question that the Rangers will be able to do so against Alex Lyon. So now where are we? I do not expect this gameflow to be a 2-2 game at the end of the third. One of these teams will run up the scoring if the other doesn’t. I do not see a scenario where this game is not 3-2 at minimum heading into the final 2 minutes of a game giving us the empty net opportunity to cash. What I do expect is that this game will be 4-2, 4-3, or 3-3 in the third. This play now becomes the favorite on the board to play. Why is it the most dangerous? Because coming off a losing week, if I am wrong, losing a top bet on a -182 line is going to be another day we need to make up. Is it worth it? If you can handle the ups and downs of losing and are here to the end then yes, this is 100% worth being the top play and a max play on the night. 

New York vs Toronto:

• This matchup is too volatile for me with all the other games and possibilities on tap. What do I think happens? THe Leafs win. The ML is -220, the team total is 3.5, and I’m not betting on either of those lines against an Isles team that still holds a grudge against Tavares and this team and likes showing him that he should’ve stuck around. There’s no value here. This is a straight up pay for your win if you want it, and to be honest, I’m not playing Toronto to score four goals against a top 3 vezina trophy candidate right now. With the week that we had, there’s no reason to play this game. If last week didn’t matter, Toronto is worth playing to win, the Isles are worth playing for value, but either way, I’m laying off the total.