When there’s a slate this big, running through each game is usually what I do first. WHen looking at these matchups there’s not much that stands out to the naked eye. We get some divisional rivalry matchups tonight (Boston/Montreal, Winnipeg/Nashville), some out of conference matchups that have some value at first look (LA/Philly, Detroit/San Jose, Buffalo/St.Louis), and some top tier heavyweight matchups (Minnesota/Tampa Bay, New Jersey/Vegas, Washington/Colorado-somewhat). Best process for me here is going game by game making notes of each expectation and then narrowing down the most favorable plays. 

Boston vs Montreal:

• Boston has won 15 of the last 18 matchups between these two dating back to 2016. This has been a heavy rivalry in the past but not as much now in terms of physicality. There is a much bigger gap in skill between these two teams than there was in the past so this matchup is more of a history bet that we would keep playing.
• Looking back, we won a unit live on Boston’s team total during the 4/24 matchup last season, played them in a round robin on 3/21, won them on the ML and team total live on 11/14 so we have a history of being profitable on this matchup. 
• The lines tonight leave Boston at -420 on the ML, an opening TT of 4, or a heavily juiced team total of 3.5.
• History wise, Boston has covered the 3.5 team total in 7 of the last 10. 
• Personally, as much as Boston should win tonight, there’s not much value on playing any of these lines. At -420 the ML does not provide much value in terms of parlaying it. There aren’t any other heavy favorites on the board today to buy the juice down so all you’re basically doing is adding a leg to get a ML down 40-60 cents. Evaluating the rest of the slate will tell me whether they are worth adding.
• Outside of this, Boston’s team total of 1.5 or 2.5 is a play you can add to your alt-line parlays and would be one of the favorable ones.
• In terms of gameflow, this game should be controlled by Boston. Jeremy Swayman will be in net for Boston. Linus Ullmark being the better preferable goalie in net for Boston is worth mentioning, but Swaymanhas had a phenomenal month going 4-0 in his starts with a 0.99 GAA.
• Unless we see an outlier game here, Boston should win this matchup in the 3-2/ 4-2 / 4-1 type range. 

Florida vs Pittsburgh:

• We are coming off a max bet win on Florida’s over last night in which they lost to the Rangers 6-2. The breakdown on that game was pretty much on point expecting Igor to have a solid start against a new look Florida team for the first time. We didn’t even need Florida to get the second goal as the Rangers offense teed off on Alex Lyon as expected. Tonight may be a similar but different case.
• Spencer Knight returns for the Panthers and should get the start after being injured and sent down for some conditioning. Knight has yet to see the Penguins in his career, so a start after not playing in the NHL for the past 16 days could be a rough first game back for him. 
• The Penguins are 13-5-4 at home this season averaging 3.45 goals per game. 
• Tristan Jarry on the other hand is 3-2 against the Panthers in his career giving up 3 goals per game on average. He technically should be 3-3 against them but the Penguins were able to come back and tie the game in the 3rd taking the loss off him and putting it on Matt Murray.
• The Penguins have been struggling to put it together all season. They’ve been blowing leads and been susceptible to giving up big games. They either play great defense or bad defense, leveling their average out to 3 goals against per game. That stat is misleading to me because they are usually giving up 1-2 goals per game or 4-5 goals per game, leveling out the average at 3.
• I don’t expect Tristan Jarry to put up as well of a game as he did against Ottawa last week, screwing out max bet after winning the same matchup days before. MGM is offering 5.5 at -185 compared to -200 on Barstool so I am recommending playing it there and saving the 15 cents on the line. 
• I expect this to be a game controlled by Pitt for the most part. With Spencer Knight coming back, I expect him to let up a few and then settle in. The damage should already be done in terms of benefitting the owner and I expect Pitt to put up 3+ tonight. Florida should be able to cash in as well. I expected the top showing from Igor last night and they still managed to put up 2 on him so I see Florida putting up 2-3 again tonight. 
• Sam Bennet will be out tonight after we saw him get hurt twice last night so that should hurt Florida a little. 

LA vs Philly:

• These two met on New Years Eve and we cashed 2 units on the total of 5.5.
• Phoenix Copley will be in net for LA tonight so that boosts me liking the Philly side. 
• LA did not see Carter Hart that night and only managed to put up 2 goals on Sam Ersson 
• I expect a bit of the same tonight but more. Philly should be able to get to Copley but I expect a better showing from the Kings. Their offense has been struggling a bit but they saw some good defensive matchups in that span. I’d like to see this game at 3-3 so I will be hitting the over 5.5 for the same 2 units we won on it last matchup. 

Tampa Bay vs Minnesota:

• This matchup was a very frustrating loss for us when the two met earlier in the year. I expect more of the same in terms of overall scoring but I expect Tampa Bay to show up tonight. 
• Tampa was held to 1 goal against Felix Gustavsson which was a shock while Minnesota ran up the score on Brian Elliot after Vas was slated as the starter. The reporting on this game really fucked me up.
• Personally, with all the other games on board, I may lay off this game. I like over 5.5 here, I like Tampa Bay, but I don’t like going into this matchup between Marc-Andre Fleury and Andrei Vasilevskiy in net. 

San Jose vs Detroit:

• These two teams met in november in San Jose and they put up 11 goals. What I am going to do with this game is wait and see how long it takes the first goal to be scored and gauge it from there. Neither of these teams are good enough for me to expect the same type of goal outpouring as the last matchup and as I’ve mentioned in the past when bad teams play bad teams, you can see shit hockey. If this game starts slow and the total drops, we may be able to hit 4.5, or if this game starts with a quick goal, we will jump on it at 6.5. Right now, I am not paying -186 or -150 to get 5.5 or 6 and I don’t trust both sides enough to push and play 6.5.

Vegas vs New Jersey:

• Flat out have no interest here. I lean the Devils to win but I have no interested in investing money on either of these teams playing each other. 

Buffalo vs. St. Louis:

• St. Louis does not seem to be affected by the absences of Tarasenko and O’Reilly. We’ve talked so in depth about Buffalo over the past week that the information should be fresh and relevant. 
• The Sabres also fucked us last night with Craig Anderson putting on an incredible performance in which Buffalo’s defense completely hung him out to dry. Had it not been for Anderson himself, the Stars would have put up 5 minimum. 
• With Buffalo playing on the back to back and the goaltending being the factor for both teams last night, I expect tonight to be wide open. This is a potential ladder game. Both teams offenses should be able to penetrate and get through to each other’s teams defenses and goalies. 
• The totals again are significantly different from barstool to mgm so I will be playing 5.5 on MGM for -190.