Good evening,

I hope everyone had a good day yesterday. We finished in the positive getting us out of the three game skid. The only disappointment for me yesterday was the Jackets and Rangers not having any goals in the third. We should have cashed the Jackets team total without question and should have come close to the ladder. The Flyers and Pens went a lot crazier than I was expecting. I was disappointed that Sid couldn’t get one of the next six goals the Pens scored after netting the first. Hitting his two/three plus would have been very nice. Tonight is going to be very light. I will remind everyone that Monday’s, Wednesday’s, and Sunday’s are usually my light days. 

Unfortunately the two live plays I sent out yesterday would have hit, but the lines never got to where we wanted before the goals scored. There’s nothing we could have done about that so I hope no one was frustrated getting those notifications. I got Butters comment on the article yesterday and I hope you guys got the response so PLEASE make sure if you have questions about ANY matchup or ANY plays you are leaving comments. I had a new addition this week and have to be on the road again tomorrow so PLEASE do not hesitate to leave comments for me to respond to. You can even tag Zab and ask him to relay to me like Redhawk has been doing (Sorry about not getting Connor the other night but we got Hyman). 

There is only one game I am playing and it was a team I swore we wouldn’t touch again. The Sens and Caps is a game that I think we’re just playing with fire. Again, my process and strategy is to look for the biggest edges on the slate and mispriced lines and attack. The Capitals are a team in transition and are a team that need to be relearned. Going into a matchup against a subpar Canadian team who has beaten them in four of their last five just spells boredom and frustration for me. Anton Forsberg is in net for Ottawa and while his numbers are better than Korpisalo this year, he’s susceptible to big game blow ups. I just have no confidence in this game. If I had a gun to my head I am taking what I think would happen 9 out of 10 times and that would put me on Ottawa and their team total of 3, and if we were up 200 units on the year like two seasons ago, I would play it, but not here, not in this scenario. Me writing these articles is to help you make assessments of your own based on your own bankrolls if you want the additional plays. 

The Islanders are coming off five losses in six games. Patrick Roy has done nothing to change this team, but I can’t say it’s his fault. This team just lacks leadership. There’s no one in this locker room that propels the skill this team possesses to get them back to where Barry Trotz had them. Over the past twenty five years, the firings of Peter Laviolette and Barry Trotz may be the biggest travesties. This lineup is better than the lineup the Isles had going to back to back conference finals and they are back to where they were in the nineties being a joke of the league. Ilya Sorokin is a stud but he is having a down year. Is it necessarily his fault, no, but he’s elite enough to keep me off this game due to the lines themselves. This is a game we should monitor live. The total for Dallas right now is at 3 but it’s -190. If we can get that down to the -130/-140 range I would jump on it. Scott Wedgewood is in net for Dallas so I don’t love them on the ML at -165. Tonight is a night I try and avoid heavy juice but Dallas should dominate the Isles. The series between these two has been pretty split over the past few years. One play I want is Brock Nelson on the shots. Nelson is the most consistent Isle over the years and my favorite Isle. He’s been playing well but Bet Rivers seems to be the only plays you can get his shots of 2.5 at -165. Fanduel has 3+ but its -205. The player to keep an eye on over the rest of the season is Noah Dobson. He’s chasing Dennis Potvin’s single season assist record for Isles defenseman and he’s becoming a top defenseman in the league. His assist prop is -128 but I don’t love it here. We will continue to monitor it over the rest of the season. 

Los Angeles and Edmonton is where I’m making my three unit play. I’m going to be playing this two fold. I am putting two units on Edmonton pregame at 3.5 -110, but I will be adding more to it live as the line of three drops to the -140 range. I don’t need to go into detail of how good Edmonton is offensively, but they’ve been hit or miss for us. This is a game where we should get our 10u debacle from the other night back. David Rittich is starting for Edmonton and this is a game Edmonton should come out firing after being embarrassed by the Flames. If anyone watching that game, McDavid got owned along the boards by Blake Coleman prompting a fight between Coleman and Janmark a few minutes later and it was a great fight. If Edmonton gets out early I am going to continue to hit this game live and build the bankroll back from them. L.A is 6-2 since firing Todd McLellan with a 4-0 win against Edmonton in that stretch. Edmonton needs to make a statement tonight if they want to be taken seriously in the playoffs. Rittich shut Edmonton in that game and has played very well against them over his career going 5-4-1 with a 2.59 GAA in that span. I am trusting my gut on this one and going against those numbers. If we lose, itll be a one play loss at -110 juice and we move onto tomorrow. 

I expect Boston and Seattle to play another tight game but lean Boston getting back on track. I’m going to monitor this one live and see if getting Boston at 2.5 is the right play. It’s at -200 now so it shouldn’t be too long before the line drops live. This could be a 3-2 type win for the B’s. If you want to splash some 3-2 / 3-1 / 4-2 type final scores for the max payout I don’t hate it. 

Feel free to leave comments below! Good Luck Tonight! (I will update the past few days plays in the article once I’m settled in and track the monthly units this week)

Official Plays:

• 9:38pm Edmonton Team Total over 3.5 -110: 3u

Author: Nightghost