The Oilers are killing us. They are fucking killing us and will not be played for a while. We started the day yesterday with four straight wins and winning 6 of the 9 original pregame plays. Not getting the Vegas live play was tough. Even up until the end of the game I wasn’t worried about the 2.5 but seeing them not put up a goal in the shootout was frustrating. They should have easily won that game. The Rangers game was a great game. Not getting the empty net to push the three was a tough loss especially with the net empty for well over two minutes. The Oilers game turned out night. I went too heavy into the game and even the live posted of 9.5. The game died in the 3rd period and not seeing the Oilers pull after getting it to 6-3 was a bit mind boggling.

It’s getting frustrating at times hearing the negativity. Please correct me if I’m wrong but we have been rolling this month and then we run into two bad days Thursday and Friday and I hear more that we’re spiraling again. I’m going to have back to back losing days. It’s going to happen every month. Yesterday’s mistake was laying into Edmonton. Two losing 5u plays is miserable, trust me I know, but six of the other nine reads we’re great. Detroit was up 3-0 less than 9 minutes into the game. The Lightning were up 2-0 5.5 minutes into the game and 3-0 5 minutes into the second. The Devils played a great game. Vegas line of 2.5 was a joke and I don’t care that it took them until the minute two minutes to get the third because it was the right play. Nashville played a great game on the road cashing their total. Scaling is what hurt us yesterday and we’ll adjust today.

Today will be an interesting day. Most teams are on back to backs with a loaded Sunday slate and we will see a lot of second string goalies. The first game I want to focus on is the Winnipeg game because we get Connor in net for the Jets. He will be the biggest edge on the slate especially with the Jets being home against a Coyotes team who has lost 11 in a row. The Jets have won the last 9 meetings between these two and Hellebuyck is 12-3 with a 2.12 GAA against them. The Jets offense was struggling for a bit but have score three or more in their last four games. Listen, if Arizona breaks their losing streak here, so be it. The Jets have dominated this matchup and will continue to so this is a matchup as I’ve said in the past you play it and expect the teams to play to their capabilities. I will be playing their team total with Connor Ingram in net for the ‘Yotes and splashing the -1.5 line.

The Lightning and Devils should be a high scoring affair. With Vas and Daws playing yesterday, Schmid and Johansson should be starting today. I don’t typically like playing 6.5’s. Today is a day where the lines are set to what should happen. Getting what’s supposed to happen will determine the success of our day. Yesterday is a day that does not derail me from making my plays. When you have losing days you need to assess why you lost. Yesterday we lost because as I mentioned we scaled into one team/one game and it went sideways. Edmonton giving up 6 goals to Calgary was a joke, especially going down 3-0 that early in the game. Thursday and Friday is what lowers my approach today. Boston losing in OT not getting their 3rd goal was a gut punch, and then waking up and seeing Vancouver didn’t score again since the 4:57 mark of the second period is frustrating. Following that up with an 0-3 performance on Friday, again with the fucking Oilers, is why we need to slow play today. All of this makes the Lightning/Devils over a 1u play for me. If we won Thursday and Friday, this would be a 2u play. There are two types of matchups- matchups that I know will happen, and matchups that should happen. This Devils game is a should happen outcome but I’m not confident enough it will. That is why I am making it a 1u play.

Philly and Pittsburgh is a matchup we used to smash the over on. These two used to play bangers back in the day. They are two different teams now. Pittsburgh is expected to be sellers at the deadline. I will be writing up a trade deadline article next week before the deadline and during it. Trade deadline day is where my our futures get locked in and the markets take a while to adjust so we get some serious value. The play I love to make in this game is on Sid. In 86 games against their state rivals Crosby has 125 points (56G/71A). I do like the over more with Cal Petersen and Tristan Jarry starting in net. We should get the over here with those two playing and Philly coming off a hard fought loss to the Rangers.

Detroit started our day off yesterday very quickly and I see them following that up against the Hawks with Mrazek in net. The total at 3 opens at -175 so I want to hit that and want it live. Let it drop 20-30 points in the first few minutes and get on it around the 150 range. I would like to play them on the ML but it’s too high coming off the last three days.

Today should be a high scoring day across the board. Spencer Martin sucks and is starting for Carolina. It’s why the Canes are only -135 against the Sabres and we are going to jump all over this game. Carolina is a Cup contender. The Sabres are a toilet bowl contender. Martin being in net should allow Buffalo to put up the two goals they need towards the over, if not more, and Carolina is dominant enough to get their team total or more. The line is low, but I don’t trust Martin enough to play the ML so I am going to attack the game over and Hurricanes team total over. With the 2.5 total for the Canes being -210, it’s very possible to get it around the -160 range if they don’t score early enough. This is a line that could be worth doubling down on if it drops.

The Rangers tend to overplay Columbus at times and get caught. After a big win against the Flyers yesterday and being on a 10 game winning streak with Jonathan Quick in net today, I expect them to get caught. Both teams should score today and I can see this being a 3-3 game. Getting 5.5 at -165 is a line worth playing expecting the Jackets to score and possibly win. The books think it’s very possible too only being +145. The Jackets are the dog pick of the day but I personally won’t be playing them. I’d like to play their 2.5 line but at -140, I don’t think there’s much value in playing their side unless it was -120 or better. Stick to the game total and look for Columbus to put the Rangers all game.

The Ducks game was frustrating last night. We had a 2-2 game heading into the 3rd and the game went scoreless the rest of the way. We should have swung that game and hit a 3-3 total. With Lankinen expected to start for the Preds after Saros started yesterday, and Dostal expected to start today with Gibson playing yesterday, this game could be your potential ladder. Nashville is the dominant team in this matchup but Anaheim has an offense that will contribute with Lankinen in net. I’m not going to play the full ladder, but I am going to play over 9 at +600 because that can significantly rebuild these past three days without damaging us.

Official Plays:

• 1:08pm Tampa Bay/New Jersey over 6.5 -130: 1u
• 3:38pm Sidney Crosby over 1.5 points +180: 1u
• 3:38pm Sidney Crosby 2+ goals +700: .5u
• 3:38pm Sidney Crosby 3+ goals +3300: .25u
• 3:38pm Philadelphis/Pittsburgh over 5.5 -130: 3u
• 6:08pm Winnipeg Team Total over 3.5 -120: 2u
• 6:08pm Winnipeg Team Total -1.5 +105: 1u
• 6:08pm Carolina/Buffalo over 5.5 -150: 2.5u
• 6:08pm Carolina TT over 3 -145: 1.5u
• 6:08pm Rangers/Columbus over 5.5 -165: 5u
• 6:08pm Rangers/Columbus over 8 +275: 1u
• 6:08pm Rangers/Columbus over 9 +550: 1u
• 6:08pm Columbus TT over 4 +290: 1u
• 8:08pm Nashville/Anaheim over 5.5 -160: 5u
• 8:08pm Nashville/Anaheim over 9 +600: 2u

*again, these don’t all need to be played at once. It is a lot of units. Scatter the plays. 1pm/3pm first. Then after those cash play the 6pm. Once 6pm results come in, put in the 8pm or scale down the 8pm plays to adjust.*

Author: Nightghost